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Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report,19 February 2019:Higher Foreign Inflows Despite a Bearish Week
February 19, 2019 17:16 WIB

Higher Foreign Inflows Despite
a Bearish Week

The rupiah weakened last week

The rupiah weakened relative to the USD last week by 1.41% from IDR13,955 per USD on 8 February 2019 to IDR14,154 per USD on 15 February 2019. The volatility (as measured by the daily average of the spread between the highest and lowest levels of the exchange rate) increased slightly. It climbed to 51 points from 47 points in the previous week.

Government bond yield increased slightly despite higher foreign inflows

The 10-yr US Treasury yield rose slightly last week by 3bps from 2.63% on 8 February 2019 to 2.66% on 15 February 2019. Meanwhile, 10-yr Indonesian Government bond yields moved in line with the 10-yr US Treasury last week. As of 15 February 2019, 10-yr Indonesian Government bond yields stood at 8.05%, or up by 17bps from the level the previous week.

Foreign ownership in IDR tradable SBN rose further. However, compared to the previous week when foreign ownership rose by IDR14 trillion, foreign ownership increased by only IDR5 trillion last week. As of 15 February 2019, foreign ownership was recorded at IDR931.67 trillion or an increase of IDR38.43 trillion compared to the end of December 2018. The proportion of foreign ownership of total SBN traded stood at 37.91%.

Auction result
The Government conducted its latest auction on 12 February 2019 for the SUN series, namely the SPN03190513, SPN12200213, FR0077, FR0078, FR0068, FR0079, and FR0076. At the auction, the number of incoming bids was IDR66.36 trillion or higher than in the previous SUN auction on 29 January 2019 (IDR48.61 trillion). The largest incoming bids were for the FR0077 series (IDR22.88 trillion), followed by FR0078 (IDR19.83 trillion). Meanwhile, the total amount of winning bids was IDR25 trillion or higher than in the previous SUN auction when winning bids reached IDR23.20 trillion. The largest amount of winning bids was for the FR0079 series (IDR6.90 trillion), followed by FR0077 (IDR6.60 trillion), FR0078 (IDR3.45 trillion), SPN12200130 (IDR3 trillion), SPN03190430 (IDR2 trillion) and FR0068 (IDR1.25 trillion).

Higher transaction size for Government bonds, with little change for corporate bonds
Last week’s trading in government bonds was higher than in the previous week, reaching IDR114.97 trillion compared to IDR85.10 trillion. In addition, last week’s overall trading in Government bonds reached IDR23.11 billion per transaction or higher than in the previous week when the figure was IDR20.73 billion per transaction.

Meanwhile, last week’s trading in corporate bonds was also higher than in the previous week (IDR5.18 trillion vs. IDR4.88 trillion). The transaction size in the corporate bonds secondary market was little changed last week at IDR9.56 billion per transaction.

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Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report, 12 February 2019 : Significant Foreign Inflow
February 12, 2019 17:25 WIB

Significant Foreign Inflow

The rupiah strengthened in the beginning of February
As of 8 February 2019, the rupiah had strengthened against the US Dollar by 0.13%, standing at IDR13,955 per USD as of 8 February 2019 from IDR13,973 per USD at the end of January. In addition, the volatility of the rupiah against the US Dollar (as measured by the daily average of the spread between the highest and lowest levels of the exchange rate), declined to 47 points or lower than its level of 65 points in the previous week.

Bond yields tended to move sideways
The 10-yr US Treasury yield declined last week by 7bps from 2.7% on 1 February 2019 to 2.63% on 8 February 2019. Overall, Indonesian government bond yields 10-yr tended to move sideways last week. As of 8 February 2019, Indonesian government bond yields stood at 7.88%, or down only 2bps from previous week’s level.

Indonesia’s 5-year and 10-year CDS increased last week. Compared to 1 February 2019, as of 8 February 2019 Indonesia’s 5-year CDS rose by 4bps while Indonesia’s 10-year CDS increased by 5bps to 116bps and 187bps, respectively.

Foreign ownership in traded SBN as of 7 February 2019 stood at IDR925.68 trillion or increased of IDR32.43 trillion compared to the end of 2018 and increased IDR12.84 trillion compared to 1 February 2019. The proportion of foreign holdings of traded SBN stood at 37.99% of the total.

Realization of 2019 issuances and the latest auction results
Based on data released by DJPPR, as of 6 February 2019, the government had issued debt securities amounting to 18.99% of what is needed in 2019, which amountied to IDR156.78 trillion. From the total realization, 80.75% or IDR 126.60 trillion are conventional bonds while the remaining IDR30.18 trillion are sukuk.

The government conducted the last auction on 6 February 2019 for the SBSN series, namely the SPNS01082019, PBS014, PBS019, PBS022 and PBS015. At the auction, the number of incoming bids was IDR21.61 trillion or less than in the previous SBSN auction on 22 January 2019 when the figure was IDR24.48 trillion. The largest incoming bids were for the SPNS series with IDR7.67 trillion for SPNS01082019 and IDR6.19 trillion for PBS014. Meanwhile, the total amount of winning bids was IDR10.12 trillion or higher than in the previous SBSN auction when winning bids reached IDR7.64 trillion. The largest amount of winning bids was for the PBS014 series (IDR5.60 trillion), followed by PBS022 (IDR1.71 trillion), SPNS01082019 (IDR1.3 trillion), PBS015 (IDR1.26 trillion) and PBS019 (IDR0.25 trillion).

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Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report, 29 Januari 2019 : Calm Start to the Year
January 29, 2019 17:22 WIB

Calm Start to the Year

The rupiah has strengthened, the BI 7D RRR was unchanged
In January 2019, the rupiah strengthened against the US Dollar by 3% to IDR14,093 per USD as of 25 January 2019 or up by 0.60% over the previous week. In addition, the volatility of the rupiah against the US Dollar declined. Commensurate with the rupiah strengthening in January 2019, Bank Indonesia decided to keep the 7D RRR interest rate unchanged at the level of 6.00% on 17 January 2019.

The yield moved sideways, foreign ownership steadily increased
10-yr US Treasury yields tended to move sideways in January 2019. As of 25 January 2019, the 10-yr US Treasury stood at 2.76% or up by 7bps from its level at the end of December 2018. At the same time, Indonesian Government bond yields also moved in line with the movements of US Treasury yields. Based on Bloomberg, Indonesian Government bond yields 10-yr, trended upwards in January 2019. As of 25 January 2019, Indonesian Government bond yields stood at 8.11%, up 8bps from the level at the end of 2018. However, the Indonesian Government bonds yield tended to move sideways last week (the Government bonds yield on 18 January 2019 stood at 8.09%).

Indonesia’s 5-year and 10-year CDS trended downwards. Compared to the end of December 2018, as of 25 January 2019 Indonesia’s 5-year CDS fell by 21bps while Indonesia’s 10-year CDS fell by 17bps to 117bps and 197bps, respectively.

Foreign ownership of traded SBN as of 23 January 2019 was recorded at IDR901.91 trillion or an increase of IDR8.66 trillion compared to the end of December 2018. The proportion of foreign ownership of total SBN traded stood at 37.33%. Compared to the previous year, on 23 January 2018, foreign ownership is up significantly by IDR44.05 trillion with the proportion of foreign ownership at 41.10% and the yield index at 6% or down by 21bps compared to the end of 2017.

Realization of 2019 issuances and the latest auction results
Based on data released by DJPPR, until 23 January 2019, the Government has issued debt securities amounting to 14.47% of what is needed in 2019 or amounting to IDR119.46 trillion from the IDR825.70 trillion needed. From the total realization, 83.21% is conventional bonds or IDR 99.40 trillion while the remaining IDR20.1 trillion is sukuk.

The Government conducted the last auction on 22 January 2019 for the SBSN series, namely the SPNS09072019 series, SPNS23012020, PBS014, PBS019, and PBS022. Meanwhile, on 23 January 2019, the Government conducted an additional SBSN auction for the SPNS23012020 series. At the auction on 23 January 2019, the number of incoming bids was IDR24.48 trillion or up compared to the previous SBSN auction on 8 January 2019 amounting to IDR17.81 trillion. The largest incoming bids were for the SPNS series with IDR6.55 trillion for SPNS23012020 and IDR6.28 trillion for SPNS09012019. Meanwhile, the total amount of winning bids was IDR7.64 trillion or less than at the previous SBSN auction when winning bids reached IDR8.66 trillion. The largest amount of awarded auctions was for the PBS019 series which amounted to IDR5.2 trillion, followed by SPNS23012020 of IDR1.1 trillion, SPNS09072019 of IDR1 trillion and PBS022 of IDR0.34 trillion. In this auction, there were no winning bids for the PBS014 series. Meanwhile, for the additional SBSN auction on 23 January 2019 the total non-competitive winning bids was IDR2.36 trillion with no competitive winning bids.

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Weekly Report Oct 2017
Country's FCLT Rating
S & P BBB-
Moody's Baa3
Fitch BBB-

Key Market Editor
BI Rate 4.25%
JCI 5,915.00
IDR 13.52
Inflation Sep 2017(%YoY) 3.72%

Market Outstanding
Government Bond IDR 2,060.70 bn
Corporate Bond IDR 371.60 bn

Last Week Trading Volume
Government Bond IDR 73.32 bn
Corporate Bond IDR 4.85 bn

Government Bond Indices
Price Index 134.87
Yield Index 6.23%
Total Return 557.70

Benchmark Yield
FR0061 5 Year 6.19%
FR0059 10 Year 6.53%
FR0074 15 Year 7.13%
FR0072 20 Year 7.32%