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Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report, 28 Oktober2019
October 28, 2019 09:52 WIB

Publikasi terkini dan peristiwa ekonomi mewarnai pergerakan pasar regional dan domestik dalam satu minggu terakhir. DRI merangkum sejumlah poin utama yang dianggap memengaruhi kinerja pasar, sebagai berikut :

 Minggu lalu, musim rilis laporan keuangan kuartalan (earnings season) emiten menjadi penggerak utama bursa domestik dan regional. Di sisi ekonomi, publikasi indikator perkembangan dini manufaktur-flash PMI, dan kebijakan moneter sejumlah bank sentral turut memengaruhi kinerja pasar. Para pelaku pasar juga mencermati perkembangan negosiasi AS-China dan Brexit. Penandatangan kesepakatan dagang tahap pertama AS-China diharapkan terjadi pada pertemuan APEC pertengahan November mendatang. Sedangkan penolakan parlemen Inggris atas proposal Brexit yang diajukan pemerintah, membuat ketidakpastian meningkat. Perpanjangan deadline Brexit dan pemilu Inggris menjadi kemungkinan lanjutan atas perkembangan ini.

Dari domestik, Bank Indonesia pada RDG Oktober 2019 memangkas kembali bunga acuan-7DRR sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5,00%, dengan bunga deposit facility dan lending facility turun masing-masing menjadi 4,25% dan 5,75%. Kebijakan ini ditempuh dengan pertimbangan prospek inflasi yang terkendali, imbal hasil keuangan domestik yang tetap menarik, dan upaya antisipasi untuk mendorong momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik ditengah ekonomi global yang melambat.

Dari ekonomi Jepang, ekspor dan impor di bulan September 2019 masing-masing menurun -5,2% yoy (vs -4,0 % konsensus)  dan -1,5% yoy (vs -2,8% yoy konsensus) menjadi JPY 6,37 triliun  dan JPY 6,49 triliun. Perkembangan ini membawa neraca perdagangan Jepang berubah menjadi defisit JPY 123 miliar, dari sebelumnya surplus JPY 124,1 miliar di bulan Agustus. Lesunya permintaan global dan dampak perang dagang AS-China berdampak pada penurunan ekspor Jepang selama 10 bulan berturut-turut.

Indikator dini manufaktur-Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI turun ke level 48,5 di bulan Oktober, dari level final September 48,9. Kontraksi sektor manufaktur Jepang disebabkan lesunya permintaan ekspor, menurunnya order baru dan output produksi.

Dari ekonomi China, otoritas moneter China mempertahankan tingkat bunga pinjaman-loan prime rate (LPR) 1 tahun pada level 4,20% di bulan Oktober, menyusul pemangkasan 0,05% di bulan sebelumnya. Sementara untuk LPR 5 tahun juga bertahan pada level 4,85%.

Dari ekonomi Eropa, indikator manufaktur dini-IHS Markit PMI stabil pada level 45,7 di bulan Oktober 2019. Kontraksi sektor manufaktur Eropa masih terjadi menyusul penurunan pada penerimaan order baru, ekspor, dan output produksi.

Bank sentral Eropa-ECB mempertahankan kebijakan bunga acuan yang saat ini berlaku. Bunga acuan-refinancing rate, marginal lending facility dan deposit rate ditahan masing-masing pada level 0 persen, 0,25 persen dan -0,5 persen. Kebijakan ini diperkirakan masih akan berjalan hingga laju inflasi aktual mendekati target sebesar 2 persen dalam jangka menengah. ECB juga melakukan kebijakan pembelian aset dan surat berharga-Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP), sebesar 20 miliar Euro per bulan, yang dimulai pada 1 November 2019.

Dari ekonomi AS, penjualan stok rumah (existing home sales) turun 2,2% mom menjadi 5,38 juta unit di bulan September 2019 (vs 5,45 juta ekspektasi pasar). Penjualan rumah tapak mengalami penurunan, sementara untuk kondominium meningkat. Sementara, penjualan rumah tapak baru (new home sales) di AS sedikit menurun 0,7% mom (+15,5% yoy) di bulan September 2019 menjadi 701 ribu unit (SA annual rate), atau sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar. Median harga rumah baru turun 8,8% yoy menjadi USD 299,4 ribu.

Indikator manufaktur  AS dini-IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI bulan Oktober naik ke level 51,5 dari level final PMI September 51,1. Perkembangan ini menjadi kenaikan moderat manufaktur AS dalam 6 bulan terakhir, didorong akselerasi pertumbuhan output, order baru dan serapan tenaga kerja. 

Pesanan barang tahan lama yang diterima pabrikan AS (durable goods order)turun 1,1% mom (vs -0,8% mom konsensus) di bulan September 2019, menyusul kenaikan 0,3% mom di bulan sebelumnya. Hal ini terkait dengan turunnya permintaan produk perlengkapan transportasi, produk metal, elektronik dan komputer. 

Klaim tunjangan pengangguran mingguan AS (per 19 Oktober 2019) turun sebanyak 6 ribu aplikasi menjadi 212 ribu aplikasi. Rerata 4 mingguannya mencapai 215 ribu aplikasi, sedikit menurun 750 aplikasi dari minggu sebelumnya.

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Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report,06 August 2019:Fed Rate Cut and Heightened Trade War Tensions
August 06, 2019 17:22 WIB

Fed Rate Cut and Heightened Trade War Tensions

The Fed cuts interest rates
On 31 July 2019 the Central Bank of the United States Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to the range of 2.00% -2.25%. The cut is the first since 2008 and took into account several factors including inflation developments in the US and concerns over the state of the global economy. The Federal Reserve also hinted that it would cut rates further if necessary. Nonetheless, US President Donald Trump said that the decision to reduce interest rates was not aggressive enough. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg implied probability of the Fed Funds rate, the Fed Funds rate was expected to be cut further in the upcoming Fed meeting. More than 75% of those questioned said that the Fed rate would be cut again on 18 September 2019 by 25 bps to 1.75% -2.00%.

Heightened trade war tensions
Following the Fed’s rate cut and President Trump’s statement, trade war tensions heightened toward the end of last week. On 1 August, 2019, President Trump said he planned to impose a new tariff of 10% on products imported from China worth US$300 billion. The tariffs would take effect on 1 September. Previously, as much as US$250 billion of products made in China were subject to an import fee of 25%. President Trump said China did not move fast enough to resolve the trade war, and he warned that he might raise tariffs on Chinese goods by more than 25% if trade negotiations with Beijing continued to stall. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level since 2016 on Thursday after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell significantly by 15bps to 1.878%, its lowest level since November 2016. As of 2 August 2019, the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 1.86%.

“Currency Manipulator” accusations
On Monday, 5 August 2019 relations between the US and China continued to deteriorate. The US government accused China of being a “Currency Manipulator” shortly after the Chinese Central Bank allowed its currency to fall below 7 yuan against the US Dollar. The Chinese government’s strategy is seen as a countermeasure against the threat coming from President Trump’s policies as he will impose a 10% tariff on US$ 300 billion of imported goods from China. This caused the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to fall further by 11bps to 1.75%.

Impact on the Indonesian bond market
Indonesian bond yields closed at 7.57% on 2 August 2019, an increase of 5bps compared to the level on 1 August 2019 and an increase of 35bps compared to the previous week’s level on 26 July 2019. Meanwhile, the Rupiah/USD exchange rate weakened by 1.3% to IDR14,185 per USD from IDR14,009 per USD on 26 July 2019.

Indonesia’s CDS has increased again
The level of risk as reflected in Indonesia’s 5-year CDS increased by 11bps from 78 bps on 26 July 2019 to 89bps on 2 August 2019. The increase in Indonesia’s 5-year CDS was also influenced by global uncertainty. This can be seen in the increase of Indonesia’s 5-year CDS by 7bps on 2 August 2019 following President Trump’s statement on tariffs that would be imposed on imported goods from China.

Foreign ownership continues to increase
Foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Indonesian Government bonds. As of 2 August 2019 foreign ownership reached IDR1,019 trillion, an increase of IDR5.98 trillion compared to the previous week’s close. However, the proportion of foreign ownership is only slightly up from 39.27% to 39.33% of the total. In nominal terms, the amount is IDR126 trillion higher than at the end of 2018, when foreign ownership stood at IDR893 trillion.

Realization of Government bond auctions
As of 31 July 2019, from the total amount of required net Government securities issuances in 2019 of IDR388.96 trillion, some Rp264.44 trillion or 67.99% had been realized. And for the total IDR825.70 trillion of gross issuances required in 2019, the Government has issued IDR620.82 trillion or 75.19% of the target. In total, IDR433.54 trillion (69.83%) were conventional securities while IDR187.28 trillion (30.17%) were sukuk.

The Government held its last auction on 30 July 2019 for the SUN series, including SPN03191031, SPN12200410, FR0081, FR0082, FR0080, FR0079, and FR0076. Two new series were auctioned, namely the FR0081 series with a coupon rate of 6.50% which will mature on 15 June 2025 and FR0082 with a coupon rate of 7.00% which will mature on 15 September 2030.

The total incoming bids amounted to IDR43.27 trillion, lower than at the previous SUN auction when total incoming bids reached IDR53.14 trillion. Meanwhile, the total amount of winning bids was IDR21.45 trillion, or lower than at the previous SUN auction of IDR22.05 trillion. The series with the largest amount of incoming bids was the FR0082 series with total incoming bids of IDR19.66 trillion, followed by FR0081 with IDR10.39 trillion. Meanwhile, the most winning bids were for the FR0082 series (IDR11.60 trillion), followed by the FR0081 series (IDR3.54 trillion). Looking ahead, the Government will conduct another auction on 6 August 2019 for the series SPNS07022020, PBS014, PBS019, PBS021, PBS022, and PBS015.

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Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report, 23 Jul 2019 : Dovish Direction
July 23, 2019 17:28 WIB

Dovish Direction

Safe havens remain attractive
Given the global economic uncertainty, demand for safe haven instruments such as US Treasuries has continued to increase. This has led to a downtrend in US Treasury yields. As of 15 July 2019, the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 2.05%, or down by 64bps since the end of last year. At the same time, the difference between the US Treasury 10-year yield and the Fed Rate is negative 45bps.

Will the Fed reduce interest rates this July?
Currently, market players are still awaiting the Fed’s decision at the end of July 2019 on whether it will be in line with market expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate given that Powell stated in his last statement that uncertainty was increasing. Based on Bloomberg calculations for the Fed Rate implied probability (ticker: WIRP) as of 22 July 2019, market participants expect that the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25bps (74.5%), and possibly even by as much as 50bps (25.5%).

Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate
At the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors (RDG) meeting on 17-18 July 2019, the decision was made to reduce the 7-day BI Repo Rate (BI7DRRR) by 25bps from 6.00% to 5.75%. The decision was taken in consideration of the forecast for low inflation and the need to push economic growth momentum. Going forward, Bank Indonesia views that there is still room for accommodative monetary policy in line with the low inflation forecast and the need to push economic growth.

This decision was taken against a backdrop of persisting trade tensions which have slowed global economic growth, with Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2019 estimated to be about the same as in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the performance of Indonesia’s balance of payments in the second quarter was still maintained and a stronger rupiah exchange rate supported Indonesia’s external stability. In addition, inflation in June 2019 was maintained at a low and stable level, along with financial stability and sufficient liquidity as well as improved credit risk.

Strengthening of the Rupiah/US Dollar exchange rate
The Rupiah has strengthened relative to the US Dollar. As of 19 July 2019, the Rupiah/US Dollar exchange rate stood at IDR13,938 per USD or appreciating by 1.33% compared to the end of June 2019. Compared to the end of 2018, the Rupiah has appreciated by 4.32% from IDR14,568 per USD.

Attractive Indonesian bond yield
Meanwhile, the Indonesian bond market has shown good performance. Based on Bloomberg BTMM ID data as of 19 July 2019, 10-year Government bond yields stand at 7.15% or down 88bps compared to the end of 2018. IBPA notes that this downtrend in Indonesian bond yields pushed the total return on Government bonds to a solid figure of 10.36% from to the end of 2018.

Continuing the CDS downtrend
The bullish trend in Indonesian bond yields was also driven by an increase in Indonesia’s credit rating by S & P from BBB- to BBB at the end of May 2019. Compared to the end of May 2019, the level of risk as reflected in Indonesia’s 5-year CDS fell 30bps from 115bps to 85bps. The decline in Indonesia’s 5-year CDS is in line with the CDS average of countries that are ranked BBB.

Foreign ownership continues to increase
Foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Indonesian Government bonds. As of July 18, 2019 foreign ownership reached Rp1,011 trillion or 39.30% of the total. This nominal amount is higher by IDR118 trillion compared to the end of 2018, when the figure was IDR893 trillion.

Government bond issuances reached the target
The gross realization of Government bond issuances during the first semester reached IDR558.10 trillion, or 67.59% of the total requirement of gross issuances in 2019 of IDR825.7 trillion. This achievement exceeds the target in the first semester of 50% - 60%. The target of the Government auction in the second quarter was also achieved. With a target of IDR129 trillion, the realization of Government bonds and sukuk issuances in the second quarter was recorded at Rp132.96 trillion. During the third quarter, there were 7 bond auctions and 6 sukuk auctions with targeted issuances of IDR185 trillion. As of 22 July 2019, the Government conducted 2 SUN auctions and 1 SBSN auction with total funds raised amounting to IDR 52.2 trillion.

Government bond auctions
The government conducted its last auction on 16 July 2019 for the SUN series, including SPN03191017, SPN12200410, FR0077, FR0078, FR0080, FR0079, and FR0076. The total incoming bids were IDR53.14 trillion, while the total winning bids reached IDR22.05 trillion. The largest amount of bids were for series FR0078 with total incoming bids of IDR17 trillion, followed by FR0080 of IDR8.89 trillion. Meanwhile, the series with the most winning bids was FR0078 with IDR5.50 trillion, followed by FR0080 with IDR4.80 trillion. The next auction is on 23 July 2019 for the SPNS10012020, PBS014, PBS019, PBS021, PBS022, and PBS015 series.

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Weekly Report Oct 2017
Country's FCLT Rating
S & P BBB-
Moody's Baa3
Fitch BBB-

Key Market Editor
BI Rate 4.25%
JCI 5,915.00
IDR 13.52
Inflation Sep 2017(%YoY) 3.72%

Market Outstanding
Government Bond IDR 2,060.70 bn
Corporate Bond IDR 371.60 bn

Last Week Trading Volume
Government Bond IDR 73.32 bn
Corporate Bond IDR 4.85 bn

Government Bond Indices
Price Index 134.87
Yield Index 6.23%
Total Return 557.70

Benchmark Yield
FR0061 5 Year 6.19%
FR0059 10 Year 6.53%
FR0074 15 Year 7.13%
FR0072 20 Year 7.32%