Live Chat Software
Berita Dan Riset Terbaru
Laporan Mingguan

Danareksa Debt Research Weekly Report, 8 May 2018 : Surging CDS
May 08, 2018 17:11 WIB

Surging CDS

Global market conditions
After briefly hitting a high of 3.03% on 25 Apr 2018, the US Treasury yield declined to a level below 3%. As of 7 May 2018, the US Treasury yield stood at 2.95%. Oil prices continued to trend higher. The Brent oil price was recorded at USD 75.47 per barrel, up 2.2% from the previous week. The WTI oil price rose by 3.9% to USD 70.73 per barrel. Meanwhile, the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries (or yield slope) fell further last week from 47bps to 46bps, resulting in a flatter yield curve.
In terms of the rupiah/US dollar exchange rate, the rupiah weakened further. As of 7 May 2018, the exchange rate was recorded at Rp14,001 per USD or depreciating by 0.77% from the previous week. However, the level of rupiah volatility was lower than in the previous week. The average difference between the highest and lowest rupiah values was 38 points, or down from the previous week’s average of 63 points. Meanwhile, foreign ownership declined by Rp2.92 trillion over the week to Rp845.31 trillion as of May 4, 2018.

Indonesia’s bond market
In Indonesia, the level of risk as reflected in the CDS increased last week. The 5-yr CDS rose by 20bps to 126bps as of 7 May 2018. At the same time, the 10yr CDS jumped by 24bps to 203bps. However, based on the Danareksa Government Yield Index, Government bond yields were only up by 8bps from 6.54% on 27 Apr 2018 to 6.62% on 7 May 2018.

Results of the latest auction
The latest SBSN auction was held on 2 May 2018 for the following series: SPNS03112018, PBS016, PBS002, PBS017, PBS012, PBS004, and PBS015. Total incoming bids at the auction only reached IDR5.53 trillion or down significantly from IDR10.17 trillion at the previous SBSN auction held on 17 Apr 2018. As was the case in the previous SBSN auction, the largest amount of incoming bids at the latest auction were for the SPNS series, reaching IDR3.44 trillion albeit down from IDR4.32 trillion in the previous SBSN auction. From the total indicative target of IDR8 trillion, the total winning bids at the latest SBSN auction only reached IDR1.38 trillion or far lower than at the previous SBSN auction (IDR6.32 trillion). The most winning bids were for SPNS03112018 (IDR0.65 trillion), followed by PBS002, PBS016 and PBS017. However, there were no winning bids for PBS012, PBS004, and PBS015. The next auction will be held on 8 May 2018 for the following series: SPN12180809, SPN12190510, FR0063, FR0065, and FR0075. The total indicative target for this auction is IDR17 trillion with the maximum target of IDR25.5 trillion.

Download artikel selengkapnya(177.01 Kb)
Danareksa Weekly Report 2018, 17 April 2018 : Observing the Impact from Rating Upgrade : Part I
April 17, 2018 17:30 WIB

Moody’s upgrades Government of Indonesia’s rating
Moody’s Investor Service upgraded the Government of Indonesia’s ratings to Baa2 from Baa3 with a stable outlook on 13 April 2018. The upgrade to Baa2 reflects greater credibility in Indonesia and the establishment of a more effective policy framework to ensure macroeconomic stability. Along with the build-up of financial buffers, prudent fiscal and monetary policy have strengthened Moody’s confidence that Indonesia’s capacity to respond to shocks has improved.
Indonesian bonds market: stable yields, foreign ownership increases and the CDS Indonesia declines
As of 13 April 2018, based on the Danareksa Government bonds yield index, the yield on Government bonds stood at 6.18%, or unchanged from its level at the end of previous week. Over the week, the yield on Government bonds touched a low of 6.15% on 11 Apr 2018 before climbing to 6.18% at the end of the week. By comparison, the yield on the US Treasury edged up from 2.77% on 6 Apr 2018 to 2.82% on 13 Apr 2018.

In terms of the foreign ownership of Indonesian Government bonds, it edged up during the first week of April in nominal terms. In the second week, it experienced a decrease to IDR870.66 trillion on 11 April 2018 from IDR871.64 trillion on 10 April 2018. After that, it rose again to IDR873.28 trillion (39.76% of the total outstanding) on 13 Apr 2018. Meanwhile as of 13 April 2018, the level of risk as measured by the 5-year and 10-year CDS declined to 97.02bps and 166.65bps after peaking on 23 Mar 2018 at 107.26bps and 174.87bps, respectively. This week, the yield on the 10-year benchmark, the FR0064, is expected to range between 6.50% - 6.65%.

Results of the latest auction
The latest SUN auction was held on 10 April 2018 for the following series: SPN12180712, SPN12190411, FR0063, FR0064, and FR0065. Total incoming bids at the auction reached IDR37.72 trillion or up from IDR35.57 trillion in the previous SUN auction held on 27 Mar 2018. As was the case in the previous SUN auction, the largest incoming bids at the latest auction were for FR0064, reaching IDR11.13 trillion yet down from IDR15.28 trillion in the previous SUN auction. From the total indicative target of IDR17 trillion, the total winning bids at the latest SUN auction reached IDR21.85trillion or slightly higher than the previous SUN auction’s IDR20.70 trillion. The most winning bids were for FR0063 (IDR6.50 trillion), followed by the SPN series, FR0064 and FR0065. The next auction will be held on 17 Apr 2018 for the following series: SPNS04102018, PBS016, PBS002, PBS017, PBS012, PBS004 and PBS015. The total indicative target for this auction is IDR8 trillion.

Download artikel selengkapnya(160.57 Kb)
Danareksa Weekly Report 2018, 03 April 2018 : Trailing the Decline in Global Yields
April 04, 2018 07:40 WIB

The Government bonds rallies
After the Fed funds rate was increased by 25bps to 1.75% on 21 Mar 2018, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury curve fell from 2.89% to 2.74% at the end of last week (29 Mar 2018). A similar trend was also seen in some other countries such as Germany and the UK. At the same time, the 10-year German bond yield edged down from 0.59% to 0.49%, while the 10-year UK bond yield dropped to 1.35% from 1.53% on 21 Mar 2018. Meanwhile, in the domestic bonds market, Government bond prices headed higher last week and yields declined. Last week, the Danareksa Government bonds yield index fell by 14bps to end the week at 6.33%. Hence, the total return YTD is 0.27% - the first positive YTD return since 27 Feb 2018. Meanwhile, foreign holdings of tradable Government bonds continued to increase. As of 29 March 2018, foreign holdings reached IDR858.79 trillion (39.31%) or up by IDR15.24 trillion from IDR843.55 trillion (38.98%) on 23 Mar 2018.

Change in investor preferences
The latest SUN auction was held on 27 Mar 2018 for the following series: SPN03180628, SPN12190314, FR0064, FR0065, and FR0075. Total incoming bids at the auction reached IDR35.57 trillion or down from IDR46.47 trillion in the previous SUN auction on 13 Mar 2018. As was the case in the previous SUN auction, the largest incoming bids at the latest auction were for FR0064, reaching IDR15.28 trillion. However, the latest SUN auction was different to the previous SBSN auction in respect to the investor preferences. Whereas investors preferred short tenors to medium and long tenors in the previous SBSN auction, in the latest SUN auction investors expressed a preference for both short tenors and medium tenors. From the total indicative target of IDR17 trillion, the total winning bids at the latest auction reached IDR20.70 trillion , slightly lower than the previous SUN auction’s IDR23.45 trillion. The most winning bids were for FR0064 (IDR8.45 trillion), up from IDR7.8 trillion in the previous SUN auction, followed by the SPN series and lastly FR0075. However, there were no winning bids for the FR0065 series. All in all, Government bond issuances in the first quarter of 2018 reached IDR210.98 trillion, exceeding the target of IDR194.50 trillion.

The next auction will be held on 3 Apr 2018 for the following series: SPNS04102018, PBS016, PBS002, PBS017, PBS012, PBS004 and PBS015. The total indicative target for this auction is IDR8 trillion. According to DJPPR’s website, the total target for Government bond issuances in the second quarter of 2018 is IDR151.27 trillion.

Download artikel selengkapnya(213.33 Kb)
Weekly Report Oct 2017
Country's FCLT Rating
S & P BBB-
Moody's Baa3
Fitch BBB-

Key Market Editor
BI Rate 4.25%
JCI 5,915.00
IDR 13.52
Inflation Sep 2017(%YoY) 3.72%

Market Outstanding
Government Bond IDR 2,060.70 bn
Corporate Bond IDR 371.60 bn

Last Week Trading Volume
Government Bond IDR 73.32 bn
Corporate Bond IDR 4.85 bn

Government Bond Indices
Price Index 134.87
Yield Index 6.23%
Total Return 557.70

Benchmark Yield
FR0061 5 Year 6.19%
FR0059 10 Year 6.53%
FR0074 15 Year 7.13%
FR0072 20 Year 7.32%