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February Update: Large Surplus Amid the Covid-19 Outbreak
March 17, 2020 13:14 WIB

In contrast to January 2020’s USD 0.86 bn deficit, Indonesia posted a large trade surplus of USD 2.34 bn in February 2020. February’s surplus is higher than our estimate of a USD 0.64 bn surplus and the median consensus of a USD 0.125 bn deficit. The improvement owed to an increase in exports and a decline in imports. Indonesia’s exports rose to USD 13.94 bn (2.24% mom, 11.00% yoy), while imports fell to USD 11.60 bn (-18.7 mom, -5.1% yoy). As a result of the rapid spread of Covid-19 in China, Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to China declined by -11.63% mom to USD 1,866 mn while imports from China slumped to USD 1,954.9 mn (-49.63% mom). The large trade surplus in February 2020 reflects a huge surplus in the non-oil and gas sector of USD 3,267.5 mn as the oil and gas sector still posted a deficit of USD 931.6 mn. 

The monthly increase in February 2020’s exports reflects an increase in non oil and gas exports to USD 13,121 mn (2.4% mom, +14.6% yoy) as oil and gas exports is relatively stable fell to USD 816.0 mn (-0.02% mom, -26.51% yoy). In volume terms, Indonesia’s exports in February 2020 were down by 2.68% mom compared to the previous month due to lower volumes of non-oil and gas exports (-3.00%) while oil and gas exports increased (+4.78% mom). Meanwhile, the aggregate average prices of exported goods increased (+5.05% mom, +9.32% yoy) in February 2020 contributing to an increase of price of chocolate and gold. By product type, shipments of Indonesia's top non oil and gas exports rose including exports of mineral fuel (HS 27), animal/ vegetable fats and oil (HS 15), precious metal (HS 71), iron and steel (HS 72), and vehicles and parts (HS 87). Nonetheless, by destination country, the value of Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to China, Japan and the U.S. all declined (-11.63% mom, -0.05% mom, -2.4% mom). 

The fall in imports in February 2020 was driven by lower oil and gas imports (-12.05% mom, +10.33% yoy) and sharply lower non-oil and gas imports (-19.77% mom, -7.40% yoy). Import volumes increased (7.98% mom), while average prices declined (-24.70% mom). By product type, lower non oil and gas imports were seen in the categories of machinery and mechanical equipment (HS 84), electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85), plastic products (HS 39), vehicles and parts (HS 87) and organic chemicals (HS 29), while by contrast, imports were higher for candy products (HS 17). By country of origin, imports of non oil and gas products from China slumped (-49.63% mom), although shipments from Thailand and Japan increased (+31.01% mom and +17.85% mom). The decline in imports of the largest non-oil and gas commodities (HS 84, HS 85, and HS 39) originating from China was still a result of the Covid-19 outbreak which led to restrictions regarding access and temporary suspension of production activities.

In February 2020, the imports of all categories of goods decreased on a monthly comparison: imports of consumption goods (-39.91% mom), capital goods (-18.03% mom) and raw materials (-15.89% mom). 

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February 2020 Inflation Update: Softening Further
March 04, 2020 09:27 WIB

The February 2020 inflation rate reached 0.28% mom or down from 0.39% mom in the previous month. February’s monthly inflation figure exceeded our estimate of 0.26% mom and median market expectations of 0.18% mom. The figure is also higher than in February 2018 (0.14% mom) and in February 2019 (deflation of -0.08% mom). On an annual basis, the consumer price index in February 2020 of 2.98% yoy is higher than in February 2019 (2.57% yoy). 

The inflation in February 2020 was driven by an increase in the foods, beverages and tobacco component (+0.95% mom) with a share of 0.25%. Prices increased for garlic, onions, small chilies, red chilies, chicken meat, cooking oil, rice and several types of cigarettes given the implementation of cigarette excise tax adjustments in February 2020. The increase in garlic prices stemmed from the limitation of import from China due to the spread of Covid-19. Indonesia is an importer of garlic and around 90% of its consumption is fulfilled by imports. By contrast, however, the price of beef, some vegetables and eggs declined. The inflation in February 2020 was dampened by deflation in the transportation component (-0.37% mom) with a share of -0.04%. The deflation in the transportation component reflects lower air fares and government policies which reduced the prices of several fuel types (Pertamax, Pertamax Turbo, Pertamina Dex and Dexlite). 

Other CPI components rose at a slower pace, including personal care and other services (+0.41%), health (+0.34%), food and beverages provison  (+0.17%), housing (+0.09%), and clothing (+0.21%). Other components experienced an increase but they did not contribute significantly to inflation, namely recreation (+0.07%) and the household equipment (+0.06%) and education component (+0.02%). The information component posted slightly lower prices or deflation (-0.01%). In the personal care and other services component (with a share of 0.02%), prices were lifted in part by rising gold prices (+1.47% mom). An increase in rental housing prices and household fuels (kerosene, LPG and Blue Gas) contributed to the inflation in the housing component by 0.02%. 

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January Update: Large Deficit in the Beginning of the Year
February 18, 2020 08:35 WIB

In January 2020, Indonesia recorded a deficit in the trade balance of USD 0.86 bn – a far larger deficit than the one recorded in the previous month of USD 28.2 mn. Indonesia’s exports and imports were both lower on a monthly basis at USD 13.41 bn (-7.16% mom, -3.7% yoy) and USD 14.28 bn (-1.60% mom, -4.78% yoy), respectively. As a result, the trade balance posted a deficit of USD 0.86 bn in January 2020 – larger than both the median consensus of a USD 375 mn deficit and Danareksa’s estimate of a USD 240 mn deficit. The large trade deficit in January 2020 reflects a deficit in the oil and gas sector of USD 1,181.2 mn as the non-oil and gas sector posted a surplus of USD 317.0 mn.

Indonesia's exports fell in January 2020 due to a decrease in oil and gas exports to USD 805.9 mn (-30.6% mom, -34.7% yoy) and non oil and gas exports to USD 12,695.1 mn (-5.3% mom, -0.7% yoy). The decline in exports reflects lower exports volume (-9.04% mom) in oil and gas items (-21.44% mom) and non oil and gas items (-8.41% mom). Meanwhile, the aggregate average prices of exported goods increased in January 2020. By product type, the shipments of Indonesia's top non oil and gas exports rose including exports of electrical appliances (HS 85), iron and steel (HS 72), and vehicles and parts (HS 87) while there was a significant decrease in shipments of animal/ vegetable fats and oil (HS 15). By destination country, the value of Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to China, the U.S. and Japan all declined (-9.15% mom, -3.17% mom, -3.93% mom).

The drop in imports in January 2020 was driven by lower oil and gas imports (-6.8% mom, +19.95% yoy) and lower non-oil and gas imports (-0.6% mom,-7.8% mom). Imports volumes decreased (-14.98% mom), while average prices increased (15.74% mom). By product type, lower non oil and gas imports were seen in the categories of iron and steel (HS 72), fruits (08), vegetables (HS 07), milk (HS 04) and candy (HS 17 ), while by contrast, imports were higher for plastic products (HS 39), vehicles and parts (HS 87) and organic chemicals (HS 38). By country of origin, the imports of non oil and gas products from China and Thailand declined (-3.08% mom and -14.14% mom), but shipment from Japan increased 0.75% mom. 

In January 2020, the imports of consumption goods (-11.19% mom) and capital goods (-8.99% mom) declined but the imports of raw materials increased (+1.67% mom).

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75