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Trade Outlook

Trade Outlook Januari 2018
January 24, 2018 14:20 WIB

December Outlook: Little Improvement

Exports and imports increased further in November 2017. Exports rose to US$ 15.3 bn (+0.3% mom, +13.2% yoy). Imports, meanwhile, jumped to US$ 15.1 bn (+6.4% mom, +19.6% yoy). As a result, the trade surplus shrank to US$ 127.2 mn in November from US$ 1.0 bn in the previous month. In the year up to November, Indonesia’s trade surplus reached US$ 12.0 bn.

Oil and gas exports contracted by 14.2% mom to US$ 1.3 bn, while non oil and gas exports edged up by 1.8% mom to US$ 14 bn. While average prices were higher (+7.2% mom, +10.9% yoy), exports volume actually declined on a monthly comparison (-6.5% mom, +2.0% yoy). By product type, the exports value of Indonesia’s top non oil and gas product types was mixed. Exports of animal or vegetable fat products (HS 15) rose, whereas exports of mineral fuel (HS 27), electrical machinery/tools (HS 85) and rubber products (HS 40) declined. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to the U.S. and Japan was higher (up by 8.5% mom and 2.6% mom, respectively), whereas exports to China weakened by 5.0% mom.

The value of both oil and gas imports (+1.2% mom, +29.6% yoy) and non oil and gas imports (+7.4% mom, +18.1% yoy) increased. The average prices of imports rose (+6.9% mom, +4.6% yoy) even though volume shipments were lower on a monthly comparison (-0.4% mom, +14.3% yoy). By product type, Indonesia’s main non oil and gas imports - such as machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84),
electrical machinery/tools (HS 85), and vehicles and parts (HS 87) posted increases. By country of origin, the imports of non oil and gas products from China, Japan, and Thailand rose by 19.3% mom, 2.9% mom, and 7.1% mom, respectively.

By type of use, the imports of raw materials, capital goods, and consumption goods rose by 3.3% mom, 20.6% mom and 8.2% mom, respectively.

The latest data indicates that the economies of Indonesia’s main trading partners are continuing to expand as expected. Economic activity remains strong in the U.S., China’s economy is stabilizing, and Japan’s economy is growing moderately. Notably, in December 2017, the average prices of Indonesia’s major commodity exports fell slightly (-0.02% mom), while global oil prices increased at a faster pace
(+5.5% mom).

The U.S. economy expanded by 2.3 percent yoy in Q3 2017, or faster than in both Q2 2017 (+2.2% yoy) and Q3 2016 (+1.5% yoy). Among expenditures, growth in personal consumption-PCE (+2.6% yoy), exports (+2.2% yoy), and imports (+3.2% yoy) eased, while growth in gross private domestic investment (+4.5% yoy) surged. At the same time, government expenditure growth was flat (+0.0% yoy). Manufacturing expansion continued with the ISM manufacturing index rising to 59.7 in December from 58.2 in the previous month. The growth of new orders received, production and employment accelerated. On the consumer side, the consumer confidence index fell to 122.2 in December from November’s level of 128.6 - a 17-year high. Consumers were less optimistic in the business outlook and job prospects over the coming months. Consumer spending increased further in November and beat market expectations. In the holiday shopping season, retail sales rose 0.8 percent mom (+5.8% yoy), pushed up by solid sales of furniture, electronic appliances, and building materials.

China’s economic growth is steady. The latest CEI and LEI rose by 1.8% and 0.9% yoy, respectively, indicating that China’s economic growth is inline with the government’s target of around 6.5%. On the manufacturing side, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped from 51.8 in November to 51.6 in December, given that output and new orders grew at a slower pace. In 2017 China’s PMI indicator remained stable above the 50-point level, signalling brisker manufacturing activity in China. On the consumer side, the sales growth of retail goods and services rebounded. Monthly retail sales rose in November (+0.83% mom, +10.2% yoy), reflecting strong growth in the sales of fuel, telecoms, garments, and furniture products. Meanwhile, monthly consumer prices were unchanged at 0.0% mom while they slowed on an annual basis to 1.7% yoy in November 2017.

The Japanese economy continues to gain traction. The latest CEI and LEI climbed by 3.1% and 5.4% yoy, respectively, suggesting that the economy is gathering strong momentum going forward. On the manufacturing side, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased in December to 54.2 from 53.6 in November, posting a new 46-month high. New orders and exports demand increased at a faster face. The improving PMI (which is above the threshold level of 50), signalled accelerating activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector. On the consumer side, retail sales increased in November (+1.9% mom, +2.2% yoy) above market expectations of a 1.2% mom gain. The sales of fuel, motor vehicles, and apparels rose strongly. In the same period, consumer prices increased (+0.7% mom, +0.6% yoy). On an annual basis, November inflation was higher than market estimates of 0.5 percent.

In December’s meeting, the Fed raised the FFR target by 25 bps to 1.25%-1.50%. The Fed expects economic activity to expand briskly, the labor market to strengthen further and inflation to stabilize at around 2 percent over the medium term. The Fed projects higher GDP growth at 2.5% and PCE inflation at 1.9% in 2018. The minutes of the December FOMC reveal that the Fed predicts that tax reform will boost economic growth, although the magnitude of the effects remains uncertain. Meanwhile, in response to the Fed’s decision to tighten monetary policy, other major central banks have maintained their accommodative policy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its benchmark lending rate at 4.35 percent and its deposit rate at 1.50 percent, whereas China’s 7-days reverse repo was hiked by 5 bps to 2.50 percent in December. In Japan, meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its monetary policy steady as expected. In December 2017, the BOJ left its key short term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent on the Policy- Rate Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the bank. In regard to long term interest rate policy, the purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) will continue in order to keep the 10-year JGB yield at around zero percent.

Indonesia’s CEI (+0.1%) and LEI (+0.9%) strengthened further, indicating a brisker pace of economic activity. In regard to price developments, consumer prices rose in December, driven by seasonal factors, the beginning of the planting season and the year-end holiday season. Monthly inflation reached 0.71 percent (+3.61% yoy). Prices in all components increased. More specifically, prices in the foodstuffs component rose the most (+2.26% mom), followed by the transportation component (+0.75% mom), and the prepared food component (+0.30% mom). On the monetary side, BI maintained the BI 7-day Reverse Repo rate at 4.25 percent with the Lending Facility rate and the Deposit rate at 5.00 percent and 3.50 percent, respectively. BI has kept rates low in consideration of several factors including the need to stimulate the lacklustre domestic economy, the stable inflationary pressures, higher exports and the more manageable current account deficit. Meanwhile, after appreciating slightly by 0.08% in November, the rupiah weakened in December 2017 (-0.28% mom).

In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 15.4 bn in December 2017, with imports reaching US$ 14.9 bn. This will translate into a trade surplus of US$ 463.6 mn in December 2017.

?? Exports and imports increased further in November 2017. Exports rose to US$ 15.3
bn (+0.3% mom, +13.2% yoy). Imports, meanwhile, jumped to US$ 15.1 bn (+6.4%
mom, +19.6% yoy). As a result, the trade surplus shrank to US$ 127.2 mn in
November from US$ 1.0 bn in the previous month. In the year up to November,
Indonesia’s trade surplus reached US$ 12.0 bn.
?? Oil and gas exports contracted by 14.2% mom to US$ 1.3 bn, while non oil and gas
exports edged up by 1.8% mom to US$ 14 bn. While average prices were higher
(+7.2% mom, +10.9% yoy), exports volume actually declined on a monthly
comparison (-6.5% mom, +2.0% yoy). By product type, the exports value of
Indonesia’s top non oil and gas product types was mixed. Exports of animal or
vegetable fat products (HS 15) rose, whereas exports of mineral fuel (HS 27),
electrical machinery/tools (HS 85) and rubber products (HS 40) declined. By
destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to the U.S. and Japan was
higher (up by 8.5% mom and 2.6% mom, respectively), whereas exports to China
weakened by 5.0% mom.
?? The value of both oil and gas imports (+1.2% mom, +29.6% yoy) and non oil and
gas imports (+7.4% mom, +18.1% yoy) increased. The average prices of imports
rose (+6.9% mom, +4.6% yoy) even though volume shipments were lower on a
monthly comparison (-0.4% mom, +14.3% yoy). By product type, Indonesia’s main
non oil and gas imports - such as machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84),
electrical machinery/tools (HS 85), and vehicles and parts (HS 87) posted increases.
By country of origin, the imports of non oil and gas products from China, Japan,
and Thailand rose by 19.3% mom, 2.9% mom, and 7.1% mom, respectively.
?? By type of use, the imports of raw materials, capital goods, and consumption goods
rose by 3.3% mom, 20.6% mom and 8.2% mom, respectively.
?? The latest data indicates that the economies of Indonesia’s main trading partners
are continuing to expand as expected. Economic activity remains strong in the U.S.,
China’s economy is stabilizing, and Japan’s economy is growing moderately.
Notably, in December 2017, the average prices of Indonesia’s major commodity
exports fell slightly (-0.02% mom), while global oil prices increased at a faster pace
(+5.5% mom).
?? The U.S. economy expanded by 2.3 percent yoy in Q3 2017, or faster than in both
Q2 2017 (+2.2% yoy) and Q3 2016 (+1.5% yoy). Among expenditures, growth in
personal consumption-PCE (+2.6% yoy), exports (+2.2% yoy), and imports (+3.2%
yoy) eased, while growth in gross private domestic investment (+4.5% yoy) surged.
At the same time, government expenditure growth was flat (+0.0% yoy).
Manufacturing expansion continued with the ISM manufacturing index rising to
59.7 in December from 58.2 in the previous month. The growth of new orders
received, production and employment accelerated. On the consumer side, the
consumer confidence index fell to 122.2 in December from November’s level of
128.6 - a 17-year high. Consumers were less optimistic in the business outlook and
job prospects over the coming months. Consumer spending increased further in
November and beat market expectations. In the holiday shopping season, retail
sales rose 0.8 percent mom (+5.8% yoy), pushed up by solid sales of furniture,
electronic appliances, and building materials.
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Trade Outlook Desember 2017
December 15, 2017 08:40 WIB

Exports and imports showed solid growth in October. In this month, exports rose to US$ 15.1 bn (+3.6% mom, +18.4% yoy). Imports, meanwhile, climbed to US$ 14.2 bn (+11.0% mom, +23.3% yoy). Given that the growth in imports outpaced the growth in exports, the trade balance in October narrowed to US$ 0.89 bn, from US$ 1.78 bn in the prior month. Year-to-date, Indonesia’s trade surplus now stands at US$ 11.8 bn.

The value of non oil and gas exports rose 4.2% mom to US$ 13.7 bn, whereas oil and gas exports declined by 1.8% mom to US$ 1.4 bn. On a monthly basis, the increase in exports was driven by higher volume (+3.9% mom, +5.9% yoy) rather than average prices (-0.3% mom, +11.8% yoy). By product type, the exports of Indonesia’s top non oil and gas product types were mixed. Exports of mineral fuel
(HS 27) and vehicles and parts (HS 87) surged, whereas exports of electrical machinery/tools (HS 85) and jewelry (HS 71) declined. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to the U.S. and Japan posted declines (down by 4.7% mom and 1.4% mom, respectively), whereas exports to China rose by 23.6% mom.

The value of both oil and gas imports (+13.9% mom, +42.7% yoy) and non oil and gas imports (+10.5% mom, +20.3% yoy) increased. Volume shipments of imports rose (+12.3% mom, +18.0% yoy) even though average prices were lower (-1.2% mom, +4.5% yoy). By product type, Indonesia’s main non oil and gas imports - such as machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84), plastic products (HS 39), iron and steel (HS 72), and vehicles and parts (HS 87) posted increases. By country of origin,
the imports of non oil and gas products from China and Japan rose by 8.4% mom and 21.2% mom, respectively. Meanwhile, imports from Thailand contracted by 1.2% mom.

By type of use, the imports of raw materials, capital goods, and consumption goods rose by 12.1% mom, 5.6% mom and 11.7% mom, respectively.

The latest data indicates that the economies of Indonesia’s main trading partners are continuing to perform strongly. Economic expansion is accelerating in the U.S., China’s economy is stabilizing, and Japan’s economy is growing moderately. Notably, the average prices of Indonesia’s major commodity exports fell further (- 3.7% mom in November), while global oil prices rose but at a slower pace (+3.9%
mom).

The U.S. economy expanded by 2.3 percent yoy in Q3 2017, or faster than in both Q2 2017 (+2.2% yoy) and Q3 2016 (+1.5% yoy). Among expenditures, growth in personal consumption-PCE (+2.6% yoy), exports (+2.2% yoy), and imports (+3.1% yoy) eased, while growth in gross private domestic investment (+4.6% yoy) surged. At the same time, government expenditure growth contracted (-0.1% yoy). Economic activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand with the ISM manufacturing index standing at 58.2 in November. New orders received, production and employment continued to grow at a slower pace than in the previous month. On the consumer side, November’s consumer confidence index rose further from 126.2 to 129.5 - a 17-year high. Consumer assessments of current conditions improved, fuelled by optimism on the job market. Consumers also foresee a more positive short term US economic outlook. Consumer spending also increased at a pace which surpassed market
expectations. In October, retail sales rose 0.2 percent mom (+4.6% yoy), pushed up by solid sales of motor vehicles, furniture, and electronic appliances.

China’s economic growth is steady. In Q3 2017, the economy advanced 6.8% yoy, following 6.9% growth in the previous quarter. The softer economic performance is still inline with the government’s target of around 6.5%. On the manufacturing side, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded to 51.8 in November from 51.6 in the prior month, supported by the faster pace of output, new orders, and exports demand growth. The PMI indicator stayed above the 50-point level, signalling brisker manufacturing activity in China. On the consumer side, the sales growth of retail goods and services was the weakest in 8 months. Monthly retail sales cooled in October (+0.74% mom, +10.0% yoy), reflecting easing growth in the sales of automobiles, fuel, building materials, and furniture products. Meanwhile, the growth in monthly consumer prices slowed to 0.1% mom, but posted a 9-month high of 1.9% yoy in October 2017.

The Japanese economy expanded by 2.5 percent on an annualized basis in Q3 2017, slower than 2.6 percent growth in the previous quarter. The advance was supported by rising exports and business investment, while private consumption and government expenditure contracted. On the manufacturing side, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased in November to 53.6 from 52.8 in October, posting the strongest improvement since March 2014. Rising exports demand pushed up production at its fastest pace in 45 months. The improving PMI (which is above the threshold level of 50), signalled accelerating activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector. On the consumer side, retail sales declined in October (+0.0% mom, -0.2% yoy), following September’s monthly increase of 0.8 percent mom (+2.3% yoy). The sales of food and beverages, and machinery & equipment contracted. In the same period, consumer prices were flat (+0.0% mom, +0.2% yoy). Prices of food and housing declined, while transportation costs were unchanged. On an annual basis, the October inflation rate was the lowest since March 2017.

In November’s meeting, the Fed held its FFR target at 1.00%-1.25%. The Fed expects the economy to expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions to strengthen and inflation to stabilize at around 2 percent over the medium term. This suggests a rate hike may be on the cards for December. Elsewhere, other major central banks still maintained their accommodative policy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its benchmark lending rate at 4.35 percent and its deposit rate at 1.50 percent. China’s 7-days reverse repo was unchanged at 2.45 percent in November. In Japan, meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its monetary policy steady as expected. The BOJ left its key short term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent on the Policy-Rate Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the bank. In regard to long term interest rate policy, the bank will also purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) to maintain the 10-year JGB yield at around zero percent.

Indonesia’s CEI (+1.6%) and LEI (+1.9%) continue to strengthen, indicating a brisker pace of economic activity. In regard to price developments, consumer prices were slightly up in November. Monthly inflation rose by 0.20 percent (+3.30% yoy), inline with the median consensus of 0.29% mom. Prices in all components increased. More specifically, on an annual basis, prices in the foodstuffs component dropped by 0.49% yoy. On the monetary side, BI maintained the BI 7-day Reverse Repo rate at 4.25 percent with the Lending Facility rate and the Deposit rate at 5.00 percent and 3.50 percent, respectively. BI kept rates low in consideration of several factors including the need to stimulate the lacklustre domestic economy, the stable inflationary pressures, higher exports and the more
manageable current account deficit. At the same time, the rupiah was stable (+0.08% mom) in November after weakening 1.6 percent in October.

In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 14.9 bn in November 2017, with imports reaching US$ 14.6 bn. This will translate into a trade surplus of US$ 327.5 mn in November 2017.

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Trade Outlook November 2017
November 13, 2017 11:18 WIB

October Outlook: to Edge Higher

In September 2017, exports fell 4.5 percent mom (+15.7% yoy) to US$ 14.5 bn. Imports also declined. They were down by 5.4 percent mom (+13.1% yoy) to US$ 12.8 bn. As a result, Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to US$ 1.76 bn, the largest monthly trade surplus so far this year. Year-to-date, Indonesia’s trade surplus now
stands at US$ 10.8 bn.

On a monthly basis, the decline in exports was driven by lower average prices (-5.5% mom, +5.7% yoy) since exports were up on a volume basis (+1.0% mom, +9.3% yoy). The value of oil and gas exports (+12.7% mom, +35.6% yoy) increased, while non oil and gas exports (-6.1% mom, +13.8% yoy) declined. A look at the data in
more detail reveals that the exports of Indonesia’s top non oil and gas commodities were mixed. Exports of animal or vegetables fats, oils (HS 15) and electrical machinery/tools (HS 85) declined, whereas exports of mineral fuel (HS 27) rose further. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to China and
the U.S. posted declines (down by 2.8% mom and 9.6% mom, respectively), whereas exports to Japan rose by 3.5% mom.

The value of both oil and gas imports (-3.8% mom, +9.5% yoy) and non oil and gas imports (-5.7% mom, +13.8% yoy) declined. Volume shipments of imports declined (-8.6% mom, +2.0% yoy) even though average prices were higher (+3.5% mom, +10.9% yoy). In particular, Indonesia’s main non oil and gas imports-such as machinery and mechanical appliances (HS 84), vehicles and parts (HS 87), and organic chemicals (HS 29) posted declines. By country of origin, the imports of non oil and gas products from China, Japan and Thailand contracted by 4.3% mom, 11.7% mom and 4.8% mom, respectively.

By type of use, the imports of raw materials, capital goods, and consumption goods declined by 4.9% mom, 7.1% mom and 5.9% mom, respectively.

The latest data indicates that the economies of Indonesia’s main trading partners are continuing to perform strongly. Economic expansion is accelerating in the U.S., while economic growth is stabilizing in China and Japan. Notably, the increases in the average prices of Indonesia’s major commodity exports declined slightly (-
0.33% mom in October), while global oil prices rose strongly (+6.6% mom).

The U.S. economy expanded by 2.3 percent yoy in Q3 2017, or faster than in both Q2 2017 (+2.2% yoy) and Q3 2016 (+1.5% yoy). For the expenditures components,growth in personal consumption-PCE eased (+2.6% yoy), while growth in gross private domestic investment (+4.2% yoy), exports (+2.3% yoy), and imports (+3.2%
yoy) accelerated. By contrast, government expenditure growth contracted (-0.2% yoy). Economic activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand with the ISM manufacturing index standing at 58.7 in October. On the consumer side, October’s consumer confidence index jumped from 120.6 to 125.9, touching its highest level since December 2000. Consumer assessments of current conditions were more positive, fuelled by a strong job market. And looking ahead, consumers remain upbeat in regard to the short term economic outlook. Consumer spending also increased the most since March 2015. In September, retail sales climbed 1.6
percent mom (+4.4% yoy), driven by recovery in motor vehicle sales.

China’s economy appears to be healthy. China’s CEI and LEI increased by 1.9 percent and 1.3 percent yoy,
respectively. On the manufacturing side, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 51.6 in October from 52.4 in September on the back of the slower pace of output, new orders, and exports demand growth. However, the PMI indicator stayed above the 50-point level, pointing toward brisker manufacturing activity. On the consumer side, consumer purchases went up. Monthly retail sales rose in September (+0.90% mom, +10.3% yoy), reflecting stronger sales of fuel, building materials, furniture, and personal care products. Monthly inflation accelerated in September but eased on an annual basis (+0.5% mom, +1.6% yoy), following monthly inflation of 0.4 percent mom in the previous month.

Japan’s LEI and CEI soared by 6.8 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, indicating that the economy continues to grow at a faster pace going forward. On the manufacturing side, slowing growth in output, new orders, and new export orders dragged down the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) to 52.8 in October from 52.9 in September. However, the PMI remains above the threshold level of 50, indicating that manufacturing is still accelerating. On the consumer side, sales of retail goods and services rebounded by 0.8 percent mom (+2.2% yoy) in September, following August’s monthly decrease of 1.6 percent (+1.8% yoy). The sales of apparel, food and beverages, and fuel increased at a faster pace. In the same period, the inflation rate was flat (+0.0% mom, +0.7% yoy) – steady as in the prior month. Prices of food rose at a faster pace, while the cost of housing declined.

In November’s meeting, the Fed held its FFR target at 1.00%-1.25%. The Fed expects the economy to expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions to strengthen and inflation to stabilize at around 2 percent over the medium term. This suggests a rate hike may be on the cards for December. Elsewhere, other major central banks still maintained their accommodative policy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its benchmark lending rate at 4.35 percent and its deposit rate at 1.50 percent. In October, the short-term interest rates for 7-day, 14-day and 28-day repo rates stayed at 2.45 percent, 2.6 percent and 2.75 percent, respectively. In Japan, meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its monetary policy steady. The BOJ left interest rates negative at minus 0.1 percent on the Policy- Rate Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the bank. The bank also kept its 10-year government bonds yield target at around zero percent.

The Indonesian economy expanded by 5.06 percent yoy in Q3 2017, or faster than in both Q2 2017 (+5.01% yoy)
and Q3 2016 (+5.01% yoy). For the expenditures components, growth in household consumption slowed (+4.93%
yoy), while growth in gross fixed capital formation (+7.11% yoy), exports (+17.27% yoy), government consumption (+3.46% yoy), and imports (+15.09% yoy) accelerated. In regard to price developments, pressure on consumer prices was steady. Monthly inflation rose by just 0.01 percent (+3.58% yoy) in October 2017, or less than in the previous month (+0.13% mom, +3.72% yoy). Prices in the foodstuffs and transportation components fell by 0.45% mom and 0.13% mom, respectively, while inflation in the other components eased. On the monetary side, BI maintained the BI 7-day Reverse Repo rate at 4.25 percent with the Lending Facility rate and the Deposit rate at 5.00 percent and 3.50 percent, respectively. BI kept rates low in consideration of the need to stimulate the lacklustre domestic economy, the stable inflationary pressures, higher exports and the more manageable current account deficit. At the same time, the rupiah weakened (-1.62% mom) in October after appreciating 0.23 percent in September.

In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 14.9 bn in October 2017, with imports reaching US$ 13.6 bn. This will translate into a trade surplus of US$ 1.3 bn in October 2017.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75