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Trade Outlook

December Update: A Small Deficit
January 16, 2020 11:19 WIB

In December 2019, Indonesia recorded a small trade deficit of USD 28.2 mn. This is much lower than the previous month’s deficit of USD 1.33 bn. The improvement owed to both an increase in exports and a decline in monthly imports. In December 2019, exports rose to USD 14.47 bn (+3.5% mom, + 1.0% yoy), while imports fell to USD 14.50 bn (-5.2% mom, -5.6% yoy). December's trade deficit is below the median consensus of a USD 0.44 bn deficit and our projection of a USD 0.58 bn deficit. In the January - December period, Indonesia's trade deficit reached USD 3.19 bn, or below 2018's deficit of USD 8.69 bn.

The monthly increase in Indonesia's exports in December owed to an increase in non-oil and gas exports (+3.10% mom) and higher oil and gas exports (+12.09% mom). While the average prices of Indonesian exports increased (+4.08% mom, -4.19% yoy), export volumes decreased (-0.30% mom, +5.71% yoy). By product type, the largest increases in commodity exports in December 2019 were for animal / vegetable fats and oils (HS 15), while export of mineral fuel (HS 27) and vehicles and parts (HS 87) are dropped. By destination country, the value of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to China, Japan and the US changed by -4.19%, +4.69% and +13.00% mom respectively. Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports in 2019 to the three main destination countries had an increased role compared to 2018 (36.70% vs 38.70%), but the increase was slight due to the effects of trade war between the US and China. Indonesia’s exports during the January-December 2019 period decreased (-6.94% yoy) compared to the same period in 2018 because of the slowdown of global economy due to global uncertainty.

The decline in imports in December was driven by lower oil and gas imports (-5.47% mom) and lower non-oil and gas imports (-6.35% mom). Import volumes decreased (-11.88% mom, -2.86% yoy), while average prices rose (+7.27% mom, -2.84% yoy). By product type, a decline in non oil and gas imports was seen in the categories of mechanical machinery (HS 84), machinery and electrical equipment (HS 85), iron and steel (HS 72). Meanwhile, imports of sugar and fruit posted the largest increases. By country of origin, the imports of non oil and gas products from China, Japan and Thailand decreased (-2.95%, -12.01% and -13.25% mom). In the January – December 2019 period, Indonesia’s import decreased (-9.53% yoy) compared to the same period in 2018 because of the slowdown of Indonesian economy.

In December, imports of all categories of goods decreased on a monthly comparison: imports of consumption goods (-22.00% mom), raw materials (-6.83% mom) and capital goods (-2.16% mom). In January - December 2019, raw materials accounted for 73.75% of the total non oil and gas imports, followed by capital goods (16.64%) and consumption goods (9.61%). A sharp decrease in raw materials and capital goods (-11.05% and -5.13% respectively) will result in slower economic growth in near future.

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November Update: Large Deficit
December 18, 2019 15:42 WIB

Indonesia recorded a large trade deficit of USD 1.33 bn in November, the second-highest deficit in 2019. This owed to both lower monthly exports and surging imports. Exports fell to USD 14.0 bn (-6.2% mom, -5.7% yoy), while imports climbed to USD 15.3 bn (+3.9% mom, -9.2% yoy). November’s large trade deficit is also far worse than the median consensus of a USD 105 mn deficit and our projection of a USD 46.2 mn deficit. In addition, it also reflects both a higher oil and gas deficit (USD 1.02 bn) and a higher non oil and gas deficit (USD 0.30 bn). In the January-November period, Indonesia’s trade deficit reached USD 3.10 bn, or below 2018’s deficit of USD 7.62 bn.

The lower monthly exports reflect a drop in non oil and gas exports (-7.9% mom), while the oil and gas exports rose further (+20.7% mom). The lower monthly exports reflect weaker trade volume (-8.7% mom, +9.7% yoy), since average prices actually rose (+2.8% mom, -14.0% yoy). The average prices of Indonesia’s oil and gas exports surged 9.8% mom. By product type, shipments of Indonesia’s top non oil and gas export products weakened such as exports of mineral fuel (HS 27), vehicles and parts (HS 87), and iron and steel (HS 72). By destination country, the value of Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to China, Japan, and the U.S. dropped by 12.6%, 10.4%, and 3.7% mom, respectively. In the Jan-Nov 2019 period, Indonesia’s exports to these three countries contributed 36.8% of Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports.

The increase in monthly imports continued on the back of strong oil and gas imports (+21.6% mom) and higher non oil and gas imports (+1.6% mom). Import volumes increased (+19.2% mom, +3.9% yoy), while average prices contracted (-12.8% mom, -12.6% yoy). By product type, Indonesia’s main non oil and gas imports were mixed. Imports of mechanical machinery (HS 84) and electrical machinery (HS 85) increased, while imports of iron and steel (HS 72) dropped. By country of origin, the imports of non oil and gas products from China (which accounted for 29.7% of the non oil and gas imports) rose by 5.7%, while shipments from Japan and Thailand decreased by 14.4% and 10.7% mom, respectively.

Due to demand related to the year-end festivities and stable Rupiah, the imports of consumption goods rose the most (+16.1% mom), outpacing the imports growth of raw materials (+2.6% mom) and capital goods (+2.6% mom). In Jan-Nov 2019, raw materials accounted for 73.9 percent of the total non oil and gas imports, followed by capital goods (16.6%) and consumption goods (9.4%).

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December 2019 Inflation Update: Lower than Expected
December 04, 2019 09:42 WIB

Inflation in November reached 0.14% (mom), or slightly higher than the pace of inflation in the previous month of 0.02% (mom). The monthly inflation in November is below our estimate and the median market expectations (+0.20% mom), and also lower than the pace of inflation in the same month in recent years: +0.27% (mom) in November 2018 and +0.20% (mom) in November 2017.

On an annual basis, the consumer price index in November 2019 (+3.00% yoy) was lower than in the previous month (+3.13% yoy). Prices in the foodstuffs component rose by 0.31% (mom) although prices in the non-foodstuffs component were stable at 0.05% (mom).

The inflation in November 2019 was driven by higher prices in the foodstuffs component (+0.37% mom), prepared foods component (+0.25% mom) and housing component (+0.12% mom). The foodstuffs component contributed the most to inflation (+0.07%), marked by increases in the prices of onions, chicken meat, tomatoes, and vegetables whereas, by comparison, the prices of red chilies and fish experienced deflation. The prices of cigarettes contributed more to inflation in November given the upward adjustments in cigarette excise tax rates which will be imposed next year. In addition, increases in house rental prices also contributed to the monthly inflation in November. By contrast, however, deflation in the transportation and communications component (-0.07% mom) helped to restrain the pace of inflation, marked by lower air fares and lower ticket prices for some other types of transportation in some areas.

Prices in the other CPI components increased at a slower rate, including the medical care component (+0.23% mom), the clothing component (+0.03% mom), the education component (+0.02% mom).

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75