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Trade Outlook

Business Sentiment Survey Aug 2016
August 04, 2016 15:05 WIB

Business sentiment weakened in our latest survey, snapping its firm uptrend which had begun in August- eptember 2015. In our April-May 2016 survey, the Business Sentiment Index (BSI) dropped 8.5 percent to a level of 122.2.

Nonetheless, the decline in the BSI does not yet constitute a break from its strong upward trend seen this year. Indeed, catalysts such as the government’s groundbreaking tax amnesty ruling and expected recovery in domestic consumption in the second half of the year could quickly help restore the BSI’s upward momentum.

CEOs continued to claim that corporate performance remained fairly sluggish. Most notably, the index measuring sentiment toward sales growth dropped a further 6.3 percent to 94.8. And at the bottom line, profits growth was similarly anemic (this index sank 6.6 percent to 93.6), constricted by high operating costs.

Looking forward, CEOs were less sanguine on Indonesia’s economic outlook over the next six months. As a result, only 38.6 percent of CEOs are now upbeat on the economy, down from 47.6 percent in the previous survey.

More encouragingly, business confidence toward the government improved further. In our survey, the Business Confidence in the Government Index (BCGI) eked out a small 1.9 percent gain to 141.0. 

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Trade Outlook Mei 2016
May 12, 2016 09:30 WIB

March’s trade surplus narrowed to US$ 497 mn from US$ 1.1 bn in February 2016, reflecting both slowing exports growth and faster imports growth. Exports reached US$ 11.7 bn (+4.3% mom, -13.5% yoy), exceeding imports of US$ 11.3 bn (+11.0% mom, -10.4% yoy). Non oil and gas trade remained in surplus (US$ 797.7 mn),offsetting the US$ 300.7 mn oil and gas trade deficit. Year-to-date, Indonesia has posted a US$ 1.6 bn trade surplus, albeit lower than last year’s surplus of US$ 2.3 bn.

Exports volume rose 11.1% mom while average prices, by contrast, fell 6.2% mom. Looking at the top non oil and gas products, the exports of animal or vegetables fats (HS 15) and jewelry (HS 71) fell, while exports of mineral fuel (HS 27) still grew. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to China (+6.9% mom) and the U.S. (+9.2% mom) rose, while they fell to Japan (-3.8% mom).

For imports, higher imports value owed to increasing volume shipments (+11.1% mom). Average prices were flat (-0.1% mom). For the non oil and gas imports, imports of mechanical machines/tools (HS 84), electrical machines/tools (HS 85), and plastic (HS 39) rose by 5.9%, 7.6%, and 16%, respectively. By country of origin,
imports of non oil and gas products from China were down by 6.2% mom. By contrast, imports from Japan (+5.5% mom) and Thailand (+7.8% mom) posted increases. Imports from China and Japan accounted for the largest share of Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports at 25.4% and 10.7%, respectively.

By classification of use, imports of capital goods and consumption goods declined by 5.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. By contrast, imports of raw materials climbed 16.9 percent mom.

The latest economic data reveals that the economy of one of Indonesia’s largest trading partners - the U.S. - grew at a moderate pace, while the performance of the economies of China and Japan were less impressive. Global demand is predicted to remain soft. On a more positive view, the average prices of Indonesia’s major
commodity exports strengthened (+2.5% mom) with global oil prices rebounding (+21.1% mom). As such, Indonesia’s exports value is likely to head higher going forward.

The U.S. economy reportedly grew by 2.0% yoy in Q1 2016, slower than in Q1 2015 (+2.9% yoy) but the same as in Q4 2015. In more detail, growth weakened in personal consumption expenditures - PCE (+2.7% yoy), exports (+0.3% yoy), and imports (+1.2% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted (-0.1 % yoy) and government expenditures expanded (+1.4% yoy). The U.S. CEI and LEI indicate improving conditions. For manufacturing, the latest composite PMI (PMI=50.8) declined in April, indicating softer industrial activity. On the consumer side, the strong labor market and income conditions kept households confidence buoyant. Given the only moderate pace of economic recovery, the Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 – 0.50 percent.

The latest economic data suggests that China’s economy is gradually recovering on the back of improvements in investment and domestic demand. The CEI and LEI have rebounded in the last several months, indicating potential economic expansion in the 6-12 months ahead. On the manufacturing side, the official PMI fell slightly to 50.1, yet remaining above the threshold level, as production and new orders decreased in April. On the domestic demand front, robust household consumption was reflected in strong retail sales growth. In March, retail sales edged up 0.85 percent mom (+10.5% yoy).

The Japanese economy isn’t showing a significant improvement. The CEI growth is flat, while the LEI growth contracted, suggesting a slowing recovery in the Japanese economy. A strengthening yen continues to weigh on exports and industrial activity. Japan’s PMI dipped to 48.2 in April from 49.1 in the previous month, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing. New export orders and production both declined. In regard to flat economic performance and weaker manufacturing activity, the Bank of Japan’s decision to not expand its monetary stimulus came as a surprise. On the domestic demand front, March’s retail sales were still weak (+1.4% mom, -1.1% yoy) and consumer prices remained subdued (+0.1% mom, -0.1% yoy). Food prices eased while transportation and housing costs declined further.

In Indonesia, the latest CEI and LEI suggest that economic activity improved further. In Q1 2016, Indonesia’s GDP grew by 4.92 percent yoy, faster than in Q1 2015 (+ 4.73% yoy) sustained by firm domestic demand and investment. On the expenditures side, households consumption (+4.94% yoy), gross fixed capital formation (+5.57% yoy), and government consumption (+2.93% yoy) expanded, while exports contracted (-3.88% yoy). Of the top 5 sectors, manufacturing sector growth reached 4.59% yoy, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector +1.85% yoy, the wholesales and retail trade sector +4.04% yoy, and the construction sector (+7.87% yoy. The mining & quarrying sector, however, still contracted (-0.66% yoy). On the monetary side, Bank Indonesia left its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.75 percent, with the Lending Facility and the Deposit Facility rate stayed at 7.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively. Stable inflation, lower interest rates, and brighter economic prospects boosted the average USD/IDR rate (+0.15% mom). Meanwhile, stronger consumer and business sentiment suggest brisker economic activities, which, in turn, would lead to higher imports.

In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 11.5 bn in April 2016, with imports reaching US$ 11.9 bn. This will translate into a trade deficit of US$ 436.8 mn in April 2016.

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Trade Outlook April 2016
April 14, 2016 13:08 WIB

In February 2016, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$ 1.14 bn, owing to increasing monthly exports and falling imports. Exports reached US$ 11.3 bn (+7.80% mom, -7.18% yoy), while imports reached US$ 10.2 bn (-2.91% mom, - 11.71% yoy). Non oil and gas trading posted a surplus of US$ 1.14 bn, while oil and gas trade recorded a US$ 0.8 mn deficit.

Compared to the previous month, strong exports were sustained by higher average prices (+10.8% mom), mostly of non oil and gas exports (+12.3% mom). The volume shipments of total exports were still down by 2.7 percent mom, however, with the largest drop recorded by non oil and gas exports (-3.3% mom). By commodity, the top three export products were mineral fuel (HS 27), jewelry (HS 71) and footwear (HS 64). Together they accounted for 21.8 percent of the value of non oil and gas exports. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to China (+6.6% mom) and Japan (+5.3% mom) rose, while they fell to the U.S (-6.8% mom).

On the imports side, the lower total value owed to lower average prices of both oil and gas imports (-10.3% mom) and non oil and gas imports (-18.3% mom). By contrast, the shipments of imports rose by 14.2 percent mom. For the non oil and gas imports, the imports of mechanical machine/tools (HS 84) and iron/steel (HS 72) dropped by 10.4% and 7.7% mom respectively, while the imports of electrical machine/tools (HS 85) rose by 5.6% mom. By country of origin, imports of non oil and gas products from China fell (-3.3% mom). By contrast, imports from Japan (+13.2% mom) and Thailand (+24.1% mom) posted increases. Imports from China recorded the biggest share of Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports (26.6%).

All imports by classification of use posted declines. The imports of consumption goods, raw materials and capital goods declined by 13.6 percent, 1.8 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

The latest economic data suggests that the economies of Indonesia’s major trading partners –China and Japan - remained soft, while the U.S. grew at a moderate pace. Global demand is predicted to remain weak. On a more positive note, the average prices of Indonesia’s major commodity exports strengthened (+4.5% mom) with global oil prices rebounding (+11.9% mom). As such, Indonesia’s exports are likely to strengthen further going forward.

In the US, CEI and LEI growth indicate that the expansion of the U.S. economy remains slow. In the industrial sector, the latest composite PMI (PMI=51.3) rose above the threshold level in March 2016, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing activity. The latest data points toward early stabilization of new exports orders, and a rise in employment. On the consumer side, strong labor market conditions and better households confidence fueled domestic demand. Retail sales growth accelerated further and inflation picked up. Moreover, in regard to the sluggish global economic growth and the risks associated with the US economy, the Fed signaled caution and the possibility of gradual increases in the Fed Funds Rate going forward.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Aug 2016

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.06
YoY(%) 2.87

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 5.25

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.82
SBI(% p.a) 4.75