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Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ IDR 3,470 BUY.TP: IDR 5,400)
September 28, 2022 09:16

Inline result

 

JSMR 1H22 result is pretty much inline with our forecast and consensus. The company booked higher operating revenue due to the combination of tariff adjustment as well as improvement in traffic volume during Lebaran holiday. As such, we maintain our net FY22 earnings estimate. Maintain BUY.

 

1H22 highlight: Inline result. JSMR booked IDR735bn of revenue in 1H22, pretty much inline with our expectation (48%). This figure is extraordinarily higher vs 1H21 excluding gain on divestment which was only at IDR67bn. Operating revenue grew by 19.7% yoy in 2Q22 (+18% yoy in 1H22), which is derived from combination of toll tariff adjustment as well as high traffic growth mainly in Lebaran holiday. For 2Q22, the gross and operating profit grew by double digit, and the core profit turned into positive from IDR95bn loss in last year.

 

JSMR has done some tariff adjustments in this year: Inner City Toll Road (26 February), Surabaya-Mojokerto (19 March), and Bali Mandara (26 February). Next year, JSMR sees to make another tariff increase in Surabaya-Gempol toll road. As the result of tariff adjustment, we have seen the highest revenue growth from parent toll road comes from Cawang-Tomang-Cengkareng toll road which is part of Inner City Toll Road at 21.2% yoy. While on the subsidiary level, we also see significantly higher revenue growth from several new toll roads such as Balikpapan-Samarinda (+137%yoy), and Serpong-Cinere (+744%yoy). From our analysis, should we exclude the deconsolidated toll road as of 1H22, the toll revenue growth would reach 22% in 1H22 with 15% growth in traffic volume. These imply ~6% increase of effective tariff per vehicle as of 1H22.

 

Going forward strategy. As the consequence of recent policy rate hike, JSMR sees that there could be a manageable increase in the cost of debt, from currently at 6.5% to somewhere between 7%. JSMR targets to see 60% fixed rate loan next year, from currently ~40%, which it aims to negotiate the interest from its investment loan. JSMR also still maintain the plan for equity fundraising of its subsidiary (PT JTT) which has effectively managed the Transjawa toll road since spin-off. Initial scenario of the equity fundraising will be around 30% of stake divestment to the public and strategic investors.

 

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