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Astra International: Going Stronger! (ASII.IJ.IDR.6,575 BUY TP.IDR.7,800)
Domestic car sales volume (wholesales) rose further by 6.1% mom to 57,129 units in Dec20. Retail car sales showed buoyant growth of 22.2% mom to 68,539 units. In 2020, wholesales volume went down by 48.4% yoy to 532,027 units. Astra International (ASII) managed to maintain market share of 50.8% in 2020. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR7,800 (SOTP valuation) as we raise our TP for Astra Agro Lestari.
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Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Market share maintained (INTP.IJ.IDR. 14,850 BUY TP. IDR. 18,100)
Domestic cement sales in Dec20 reached 5.74mn tons (-5.0%mom, -12.1%yoy) as sales in Java dropped by -3.9%mom. INTP’s sales in Dec20 of 1.49mn tons (-0.7%mom, -8.9%yoy) on the back of flattish sales in Western Java, INTP’s home-base. YTD, INTP sold 16.19mn tons of cement in FY20. This is in-line with our target at 16.03mn tons (101%). INTP managed to maintain its market share at 25.8% in FY20 (FY19: 25.5%) as the domestic consumption in FY20 reached 62.74mn tons (-10.4%yoy). We maintain our BUY call on INTP. 
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Ace Hardware Indonesia: SSSG dipped back in Dec 20 (ACES.IJ.IDR. 1,810 BUY TP.IDR. 1,925)
As a result of strict PSBB to minimize holiday Covid-19 clusters, ACES’ SSSG dipped to -14.5% in Dec20 with sales of IDR772bn (+32.4% MoM and -12.2% yoy), leading to a YTD December 2020 SSSG figure of -9.3%. Jan20 should be marked with a lower figure because of the stricter PSBB from 18 December to 8 January 2021, which will be followed by Java – Bali from 11 January to 25 January. The stricter PSBB may result in a potentially heavier slump in Jan20 as malls have to close at 7.00pm. We maintain our TP at IDR1,925 despite the proven resilience of ACES under the worst PSBB conditions. Given the recent share price decline, we upgrade our call to BUY with limited upside of 10.6%.
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MACROECONOMY

Indonesia posted a 5-year high trade surplus of USD2.2bn in Dec 20

•               The trade balance in December 2020 recorded a surplus of USD2.2bn, with large surpluses in vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel. This is the largest surplus in the last five years.
•               Total exports reached USD16.5bn, the highest in 2020, increasing by 8.4% (mtm), 14.6 (yoy).
•               The highest growth occurred in the oil and gas sector at 33.7% (mtm). Annually, the growth of non-oil and gas exports from the manufacturing industry increased by ~3%, the agricultural sector by 13.98%, while mining and other products posted a decline of 20.7%. The largest increase in exports was for the HS group of vegetable oils and fats, amounting to USD264.2mn (11.2%), while the largest decrease was for the HS iron and steel group amounting to USD 77.7mn (-6.1%).
•               Cumulatively, Indonesia's exports during 2020 reached USD163.31bn or down by 2.6% yoy. Non-oil and gas exports alone reached USD155bn or down by 0.6% yoy.
•               Imports in December 2020 amounted to USD 14.4bn or up by 14% (mtm) while on an annual basis they showed a slight decline of -0.5%. The largest component of imports was raw materials, amounting to 70.6% of the total imports in December 2020. The largest increase in imports was of machinery and mechanical equipment at USD240mn. The largest supplier of imported non-oil and gas goods throughout 2020 was China with a value of USD39.4bn or 30.9%.

(Source: BPS)

CORPORATE

PGAS reported December distribution numbers; positive performance by SAKA

PGAS reported a December number for distribution reaching 879 bbtud (-2.2%MoM) and YTD at 828 bbtud (-12.9%YoY) missing the YE target of 870 bbtud - as expected. We understand the December figure declined in-line with the cyclicality of the volumes.

SAKA’s December production volume (upstream lifting) closed at 21,747 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day) lower by -4.4%MoM but well above the 3Q20 quarterly production of 17,000 boepd implying revenues growth in 4Q20 for SAKA. Saka is currently drilling the West Pangkah field within the Pangkah block and it is expected to come on-stream next month. The above particular field is expected to produce 1,600 boepd.

SAKA currently has 3 tax disputes: A) amounting to US$127.7mn which it lost at the Supreme court according to the judicial review, B) a US$35.2mn tax dispute which was won by SAKA based on the Judicial review by the Supreme court and C) US$19.9mn based on a Judicial review. SAKA has already paid tax dispute C together with a 100% penalty.  Based on verdicts B and C, SAKA is going to seek judicial reviews with the Supreme Court on the tax dispute it lost for the amount of US$127.7mn against the Indonesian tax authority as the C case was similar in substance to the case won in cases B and C.

PGN remains liable for Rp3.06tn for tax disputes resulted from tax VAT underpayments. The company is planning to submit a judicial review once a formal verdict letter is received from the Supreme Court.

Comment: Volume distribution declined we believe due to YE cyclicality. SAKA’s production held up at about 21,000 boepd expecting to deliver revenues growth QoQ. We have a BUY rating on PGAS with a TP of IDR2,050 (Niko Margaronis).

COVID-19

The govt may open self-pay vaccinations for corporations

The Ministry of Health stated that in order to accelerate the vaccination progress, the govt may opt to open up self-paid vaccinations for employees in corporations. The procurement could be done outside the govt; hence the corporations may directly purchase the vaccines or get them via other private distributors. Yet the govt also warned that obtaining approval from the Food and Medicine Oversight Board (BPOM) was essential. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance mentioned that currently the govt has not yet considered whether or not to open up a self-paid vaccinations program. The govt is still focusing on the free vaccination program that is budgeted at ~IDR74tn for this year. The sources of finance are: IDR18tn from the 2021 govt budget, IDR47tn from the remaining budget in 2020 (SILPA), and the rest will be in the form of budget reallocation in ministries/institutions and regional govts. (Kompas, Investor Daily)