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BRI Danareksa Equity Snapshot - 20 November 2020
November 20, 2020 09:06

Strategy: Vote of Confidence 
Bank Indonesia’s 25 bps rate cut is ahead of the curve, and in our view, it is seen as a vote of confidence underpinned by improvements in key macro parameters, with the benign inflation outlook, stable IDR on foreign inflows and robust trade data, and the expectation of the economy showing positive growth in 4Q. While banks remain cautious in the ST on the perception of elevated risk, QE and rate cuts are a potent combination to put the economy onto a growth trajectory going into 2021.
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Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: Modest growth expected (BTPN.IJ IDR. 2,440 HOLD.TP.IDR. 2,500)
We maintain our HOLD call on BTPN with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of IDR2,500 implying 0.6x 2021F PBV. Given the bank’s growth engine from the sharia subsidiary, we assume a pick-up in the loans book with 6.0% yoy growth next year. While the corporate segment will remain the major contributor to BTPN’s business going forward supported by the legacy business from SMBC pre-merger. Thus, NIM is expected to expand to 7.5% on the back of a 30bps lower blended CoF of 6.2% based on our model. 

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Ministry of Finance: Economic Recovery is Still in its Early Stages

The Ministry of Finance reminds us to still be cautious despite the economic recovery trend experienced in the third quarter of 2020. Economic growth improved from -5.32% in Q2 to  -3.49% during Q3. This improvement was supported by increasing demand in consumption and the recovery of supply from 12 different sectors. However, the Government says that the worst is over but it does not guarantee anything.