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Consumer Confidence Agustus 2020
August 03, 2020 13:58 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell for the fourth straight month in July 2020 to 71.4 from 72.6 in the previous month, although the large-scale social distancing restrictions have been eased by the government. The two main components of the CCI declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) declined by 2.4 percent mom to 35.9 and the Expectations Index (EI) fell 1.6 percent mom to 97.9. Consumers gave more negative assessments towards current national economic conditions and employment conditions. By contrast, consumers viewed local economic conditions more positively as this index rose by 3.9 percent in line with the end of large-scale social distancing restrictions in some areas. 

In our survey, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “bad” rose from 76.8 percent to 77.7 percent, while 17.1 percent of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. However, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “good” rose from 4.1 percent to 4.7 percent. The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia has been felt greatly by consumers, as reflected in the fourth decline in the CCI since April 2020.

Looking ahead, consumers are more upbeat on the outlook for the national economy over the next six months. These improving perceptionsreflect hopes of a brighter future aslarge-scale social restrictions have been lifted in some areas with the government providing a stimulus to reduce the impact of Covid-19. However, the proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased by 6.5 percent to 72.9. The proportion of consumers who expect that family incomes were “lower” rose from 39.2 percent to 41.6 percent. Similarly, consumers were less upbeat on the job market outlook as this index fell by 1.8 percent to 96.7. The proportion of consumers who expect that job market were “hard to get” increase from 13.1 percent to 13.8 percent. Job termination due to the spread of Covid-19 is still a major worry for many consumers.

Consumer confidence weakened in rural areas but rebounded in urban areas. For rural consumers, the CCI sank by 7.2 percent mom to 67.0 but for consumers in urban areas the CCI rose by 0.5 percent mom to 73.1. By province, the CCI fell in four of them: East Java (-19.1 percent mom to 58.5), South Sulawesi (-6.2 percent mom to 66.3), and North Sumatera (-1.9 percent mom to 66.6). This is in line with the increase in Covid-19 cases in several regions, especially East Java. By contrast, the CCI increased in West Java (+6.4 percent mom to 76.4), Jakarta (+6.0 percent mom to 79.7) and Central Java (+5.7 percent mom to 83.3). 

By income level, the CCI declined in one of the three income groups. For mid-income consumers (with incomes between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) the CCI dropped to 67.4 (-6.1 percent mom). By contrast, the CCI for low income consumers (with incomes below IDR 1.5 mn/month) rose to 65.7 (+1.7 percent mom) Consumer Confidence August 2020 Edition Consumer Confidence and the CCI for high-income consumers (with incomes above IDR 3.0 mn/month) rose to 77.6 (+0.9 percent mom).

In July 2020, consumers expressed greater concerns on job scarcity (57.31 percent vs 55.36 percent in the previous month), rising foodstuff prices (46.11 percent vs 44.23 percent in the previous month) and the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia (44.78 percent vs 41.2 percent in the previous month). At the same time, consumers were also worried about job termination (up to 20.59 percent) and were more worried by the decline in industrial production (14.97 percent vs 14.24 percent in the previous month).

Most consumers expect inflationary pressures to heighten over the next 6 months (the index measuring sentiment toward general prices jumped by 3.0 percent to 166.2). This is in line with the inflation in June which increased by 0.18 percent mom. In relation to the exchange rate, consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index rose by 19.4 percent to 74.4. At the same time, more consumers think that interest rates will increase over the near term (this index rose 3.8 percent to 112.5).

Consumer buying plans were less solid. In our July survey, the buying intentions index fell further to 158.2 (-17.2 percent yoy). Among the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, consumer purchasing plans declined in six of them (automobiles, motorcycles, bicycles, house renovation, audio-visual equipment and gold jewelry), while increases were seen in the other four categories (houses, land, home appliances and livestock). An increase in purchasing plans for livestock was seen ahead of the Eid al-Adha celebrations in late July 2020, while plans to purchase bicycles declined as a result of an increase in the number of Covid19 cases in several regions and an increase in bicycle prices.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) fell further by 1.1 percent mom to 112.0 following a 4.0 percent decline in the previous month. Four of the CCGI components posted declines. Consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (-4.3 percent mom to 111.1), to stabilize general prices (-1.4 percent mom to 101.3), to provide and maintain public infrastructure (-0.7 percent mom to 161.3), and to enforce the rule of law (-0.4 percent mom to 120.6).By contrast, however, consumers expressed more confidence in the government’s ability to ensure a safe and orderly environment (+1.3 percent mom to 156.0).

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Consumer Confidence Juli 2020
July 03, 2020 09:15 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell for the third straight month in June 2020 to 72.6 from 75.3 in the previous month, its lowest level since July 2008, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak. The two main components of the CCI declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) slumped 10.7 percent mom to 36.8 and the Expectations Index (EI) fell 1.4 percent mom to 99.5. Consumers gave more negative assessments towards current national and local economic conditions as well as employment conditions. In our survey, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “good” fell from 5.7 percent to 4.1 percent, while 19.1 percent of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. However, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “bad” rose from 73.1 percent to 76.8 percent. The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia has been felt greatly by consumers, as reflected in the three sharp declines in the CCI since April 2020. Throughout 2020 consumers perceptions of current economic conditions weakened by -57% ytd, with the deepest decline in the national economic conditions index.

Looking ahead, consumers are more upbeat on the outlook for the economy and employment conditions over the next six months. These improving perceptions came as large-scale social restrictions have been lifted in some areas with the government providing a stimulus to reduce the impact of Covid-19. However, the proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased by 5.9 percent to 77.9.

Consumer confidence weakened in both urban and rural areas with decline in rural areas is more deeper than urban areas. For urban consumers, the CCI declined by 2.6 percent mom to 72.8 and for consumers in rural areas the CCI fell by 6.5 percent mom to 72.2. By province, the CCI fell in three of them: East Java (-18.5 percent mom to 72.3), South Sulawesi (-13.6 percent mom to 70.7), and Central Java (-2.2 percent mom to 78.9). By contrast, the CCI increased in North Sumatra (+16.8 percent mom to 67.9), Jakarta (+8.7 percent mom to 75.2) and West Java (+0.9 percent mom to 71.8).

By income level, the CCI declined in two groups. The CCI for low income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) the CCI dived to 64.6 (-10.7 percent mom), while for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) dropped to 71.8 (-6.8 percent mom). By contrast, the CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) rose to 76.9 (+3.6 percent mom).

In June 2020, consumers expressed greater concerns on the threats posed by the Covid-19 outbreak on Indonesia job scarcity (55.36 percent vs 43.09 percent in the previous month), rising foodstuff prices (44.23% percent vs 40.84 percent in the previous month) and the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia (41.2 percent vs 33.47 percent in the previous month). At the same time, consumers were also worried about job termination (up to 22.98 percent). This is inline with the large number of job terminations due to the Covid-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, consumers were less worried by the decline in industrial production (14.24 percent vs 17.40 percent in the previous month). These findings are inline with the easing of large-scale social restrictions in some areas so that economic activity can begin to recover slowly.

Most consumers expect inflationary pressures to heighten over the next 6 months (the index measuring sentiment toward general prices jumped by 3.9% to 161.3). In relation to the exchange rate, consumers in the main cities are less positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index weakened by 24.4% to 62.4. At the same time, more consumers think that interest rates will decline over the near term (this index slipped 4.4% to 108.3).

Consumer buying plans were less solid. In our June survey, the buying intentions index fell further to 168.0 (-10.5 percent yoy). Among the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, consumer purchasing plans declined in eight of them (automobiles, motorcycles, houses, house renovation, land, audio-visual equipment, home appliances and gold jewelry), while increases were seen in the other two (bicycles and livestock). An increase in purchasing plan of livestock is an indication that consumers start to switch their consumption to investment.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) fell further by 4.0 percent mom to 113.2 following a 3.7 percent decrease in the previous month. Two of the CCGI components posted declines. Consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (-22.9 percent mom to 102.8) and to spur economic growth (-3.0 percent mom to 116.0). By contrast, however, consumers expressed more confidence in the government’s ability to provide and maintain public infrastructure (+42.5 percent mom to 162.4), to ensure a safe and orderly environment (+40.1 percent mom to 154.0) and to enforce the rule of law (+7.0 percent mom to 121.1).

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Consumer Confidence Juni 2020
June 03, 2020 08:24 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell for the second straight month in May 2020 to 75.3 from 80.2 in the previous month, its lowest level since July 2008, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak. The Present Situations Index (PSI) declined more sharply by 24.4 percent mom to 41.2, while the Expectations Index (EI) rose by 1.4 percent mom to 100.9. Consumers gave more negative assessments towards current national and local economic conditions as well as employment conditions. In our survey, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “good” fell from 11.3 percent to 5.7 percent, while 21.2 percent of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia has been felt greatly by consumers, as reflected in the two sharp declines in the CCI since April 2020.

Looking ahead, consumers are more upbeat on the outlook for the economy, local business conditions and employment conditions over the next six months. These improving perceptions come as large-scale social restrictions are lifted in some areas with the government providing a stimulus to reduce the impact of Covid-19. However, the proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased by 2.4 percent to 82.8.

Consumer confidence weakened in urban and rural areas. For urban consumers, the CCI declined by 6.3 percent mom to 74.7 and for rural areas the CCI fell by 5.5 percent mom to 77.2. By province, the CCI fell in five of them: Jakarta (-12.3 percent mom to 69.2), Central Java (-6.6 percent mom to 80.6), West Java (-3.2 percent mom to 71.2), East Java (-3.4 percent mom to 88.6), and North Sumatra (-21.2 percent mom to 58.1). By contrast, the CCI increased in South Sulawesi (+6.8 percent mom to 81.8) with the expectations index increasing by 12.8% mom to 100.1 mainly because of the lifting of large- scale social restrictions in the area.

By income level, the CCI declined in two groups. The CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) dropped to 74.3 (-12.5 percent mom), while for low income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month), the CCI dropped to 72.4 (-4.6 percent mom). By contrast, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) rose to 77.0 (+1.4 percent mom).

In May 2020, consumers expressed greater concerns on the threats posed by the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia (33.47 percent vs 24.48 percent in the previous month) and job scarcity (43.09 percent vs 35.64 percent in the previous month). At the same time, consumers were also more worried by the decline in industrial production (up to 17.40 percent) and job termination (up to 18.01 percent) due to social distancing policies and large-scale social restrictions in several areas due to the increasing numbers of Covid-19 cases in the country. Meanwhile, consumers were less worried by the issue of rising foodstuff prices (40.84 percent vs 49.28 percent in the previous month’s survey), a finding consistent with the lower inflationary pressures in April 2020 (prices only edged up by 0.08 percent mom).

Most consumers expect lower inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices declined by 8.4 percent mom to 155.3. In relation to the exchange rate, consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index strengthened further by 30.7 percent mom to 82.5. This is in line with the strengthening of the rupiah by 7.76% mom in April 2020 to the level of Rp15,136, with positive sentiment on the rupiah created by the issuance of USD 4,3 billion of government global bonds. At the same time, however, fewer consumers think that interest rates will declined over the near term (this index climbed by 5.7 percent mom to 113.3).

Consumer buying plans were less solid. In our April survey, the buying intentions index fell further to 184.2 (-3.1 percent yoy). Among the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, consumer purchasing plans declined in seven of them (automobiles, motorcycles, bicycles, houses, home appliances, livestock and gold jewelry), while increases were seen in the other three (house renovation, land and audio-visual equipment).

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) fell further by 3.7 percent mom to 118.0 after posting a 5.5 percent increase in the previous month. Four of the CCGI components posted declines. Consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (-7.14 percent mom to 119.6), to provide and maintain public infrastructure (-4.6 percent mom to 114.0), to ensure a safe and orderly environment (-5.9 percent mom to 109.9) and to enforce the rule of law (-7.3 percent mom to 113.1). By contrast, however, consumers expressed more confidence in the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (+6.7 percent mom to 133.4) consistent with the benign April inflation of 0.08 percent mom, down from 0.10 percent mom in the previous month.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75