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Consumer Confidence September 2017
September 19, 2017 10:39 WIB

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 99.7 in August from 98.2 in July. Overall, consumers are more upbeat on the prospects for both the local economy and the national economy. In addition, consumers are also more optimistic toward the future job market. Nevertheless, there are still some issues which continue to worry consumers such as high foodstuff prices, job scarcity, and electricity tariff hikes. In our survey, 8.5 percent of consumers cited higher electricity tariffs as a major concern.

Both components that make up the CCI increased. The component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), added 1.8 percent to 83.0, as sentiment toward the current state of the job market improved in August. As for the other main component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – it climbed 1.4 percent to 112.2. The increase in this index reflects stronger consumer optimism toward the economic outlook over the next six months.

As consumers are more upbeat on the national and local economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods
strengthened in August. In our survey, 42.34 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, up from 40.60 percent in the previous month. Furthermore, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are also higher since only 30.51 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good back in August 2016.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties weakened slightly in the August survey. After increasing 1.5 percent in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) slipped 0.5 percent from its highest level in more than 2 years of 101.5 to 101.1 in August. In our survey, three components of the CCGI increased, while two declined. In the August survey, only two components of the CCGI are still above the neutral level of 100.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75