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Consumer Confidence Agustus 2019
July 31, 2019 14:12 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 102.0 in July 2019 from 100.7 in June. Both indicators – i.e. the Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) - increased by 2.8% mom and 0.5% mom to 87.0 and 113.2, respectively. Consumers gave increasingly positive assessments toward current economic conditions and the job market. The proportion of consumers claiming that current economic conditions were “good” increased from 22.0 percent to 23.4 percent. In addition, consumers were more upbeat on the outlook for local business conditions and their family incomes over the next 6 months. The percentage of consumers expecting that their family incomes will improve over the next six months increased from 21.4 percent to 23.9 percent.

The CCI for urban consumers rose by 2.9% mom to 103.7, while the CCI for rural areas slipped to 98.0 (-2.5% mom). By province, the CCI increased in three of them: Jakarta (+2.5% mom to 117.3), North Sumatera (+12.8% mom to 96.1), and South Sulawesi (+4.9% mom to 84.6). By contrast, the CCI fell in West Java (-0.7%), Central Java (-4.6%), and East Java (-2.5%) to 101.3, 110.9, and 107.0, respectively.

By income level, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) rose to 98.5 (+2.9% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI climbed to 109.5 (+0.8% mom). By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) fell by 3.5 percent to 90.3. Lower CCI for low-income consumers was related to falling CCI for rural areas. However since the CCI readings stayed above their 12-month averages, this reflects relatively strong consumer confidence, suggesting there will not be any significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.

Our survey shows that 69.5 percent of consumers worry about higher foodstuff prices (up from 65.8% in the previous month) as well as job scarcity (up to 42.3% from 33.9% in the previous survey). Notably, there have been recent increases in the prices of rice, chilis, and vegetables in July following the Idul Fitri festivities. However, consumer concerns on potential natural disasters dropped from 6.8 percent to 4.6 percent. Since the new school year has begun, 0.12 percent of consumers also cited rising education costs as a concern.

Most consumers expect milder inflationary pressures and lower interest rates over the next 6 months. The index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices and interest rates fell by 1.0% and 0.2% to 173.1 and 121.5. At the same time, consumers in the main cities are pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (this index dipped 1.0% to 66.0).

The Buying Intentions Index gained traction in July. It rose to 192.2 (+1.8% mom), suggesting that buying intentions are solid. This also indicating that consumers more confident to long term economic outlook. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions rose in five of them (cars, motorcycles, bicycles, land, and houses). Stable consumer purchasing intentions for durable goods over the next six months should be maintained since the index is significantly higher on an annual basis (+14.1% yoy).

Inline with the increase in the CCI, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 4.4% mom to 116.4, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. All the CCGI components posted monthly increases, indicating that consumers are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties. Consumers have greater confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+5.8% mom to 115.7), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+1.2% mom to 121.9), stabilize general prices (+4.8% mom to 105.8), ensure a safe and orderly environment (+3.3% mom to 118.6) and enforce the rule of law (+7.3% mom to 120.1). 

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Consumer Confidence Juli 2019
July 31, 2019 14:11 WIB

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell for the second straight month in June 2019 to 100.7 from 103.1 in the previous month. The Present Situations Index (PSI) declined more sharply by 4.5% to 84.7, while the Expectations Index (EI) slipped 1.1% to 112.6. Consumers gave more negative assessments toward current economic and employment conditions. In turn, they are less upbeat on the outlook for local business conditions and their family incomes over the next 6 months.

The CCI for urban areas slipped to 100.8 (-5.3% mom), while the CCI for rural areas rose 5.8% mom to 100.5. By province, the CCI fell in three of them: Jakarta (-3.8% mom to 114.4), North Sumatera (-16.1% mom to 85.2), and South Sulawesi (-6.0% mom to 80.7). By contrast, the CCI was up in West Java (+6.4%), Central Java (+2.2%), and East Java (+1.7%) to 102.0, 116.2, and 109.7, respectively.

By income level, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) fell to 95.7 (-2.8% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI declined to 108.6 (-3.8% mom). By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) rose further by 4.4 percent to 93.6. Since the CCI readings are above their 12-month averages, this reflects relatively strong consumer confidence, suggesting there will not be any significant pullback in consumer spending (particularly for low-income consumers) in the months ahead.

Consumers mentioned several factors that dampened local economic conditions. Some 65.8 percent of them are concerned by higher foodstuff prices (unchanged from 65.8% in the earlier survey), and job scarcity (up to 33.9% from 32.9% in the previous survey). The recent floods in North Sumatera and Sulawesi also raised concerns over potential natural disasters (6.8 percent of consumers noted this as a worry vs. 5.4% in the previous survey). 

Most consumers foresee milder inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices fell 1.9% to 174.8).  In regard to interest rates, consumers believe that interest rates will remain high over the next six months (this index rose 2.5% to 121.7). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (this index slumped by 6.3% to 66.7).

The Buying Intentions Index fell on a monthly basis (-1.3% mom to 187.7) in the June survey. Consumers may postpone planned purchases of several types of durable goods following the Idul Fitri festivities and ahead of the new school year. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions dropped sharply in three of them (houses, home appliances, and gold-jewelry). Nonetheless, the Buying Intentions Index still posted higher annual growth (+11.8% yoy), indicating stable consumer purchasing intentions for durable goods over the next six months. 

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 0.5% mom to 111.5, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month. Three components of the CCGI posted a monthly increase. In particular, consumers have greater confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+0.1% mom to 109.4), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+0.4% mom to 120.5), and stabilize general prices (+4.3% mom to 101.0). The components of the CCGI to decline were the ones measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to ensure a safe and orderly environment (-0.8% mom to 114.8) and enforce the rule of law (-1.0% mom to 111.9). 

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Consumer Confidence Juni 2019
May 29, 2019 10:17 WIB

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped 0.7% mom in May 2019 to 103.1, yet still a relatively high level in the history of the survey. Both the Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) lost ground. While the PSI slipped 0.4% to 88.7, the EI fell more sharply by 0.8% to 113.9. Despite the decline in the CCI, consumer optimism is intact since the CCI still stands at a high level.

Consumers are less upbeat on the outlook for economic and local business conditions as well as family incomes over the next 6 months. By contrast, however, consumers believe that the outlook for the job market will improve. In our survey, 67.6 percent of respondents believe that their job security will improve over the next six months whereas only 2.9% believe it will worsen.

The CCI for urban areas rose for the third consecutive month to 106.4 (+0.8% mom), while the CCI for rural areas dipped 4.4% mom to 95.0. By province, the CCI fell in four of them: Jakarta (-1.8% mom to 118.9), West Java (-8.5% mom to 95.9), Central Java (-0.9% mom to 113.6) and South Sulawesi (-1.6% mom to 85.9). By contrast, the CCI was up in East Java (+3.2% mom to 107.9) and in North Sumatera (+6.5% mom to 101.5).

By income level, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) fell to 98.5 (-0.4% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI declined to 113.0 (-1.2% mom). By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) rose 0.8 percent to 89.6. As the CCI readings are above their 12-month averages, this indicates relatively strong consumer confidence which should support consumer spending over the near term.

Concerns over general prices continued to weigh on the local economy. Some 65.8 percent of consumers are more concerned by higher foodstuff prices (up from 62.5%), yet hardly unsurprising given that prices of various items tend to rise during Ramadan and ahead of Idul Fitri. Note that headline inflation reached 0.44% mom in April 2019 (+2.83% yoy), driven by higher prices of foodstuffs (volatile foods) and transportation (airfares). Other worries affecting consumers include: job scarcity (down to 32.9% from 34.9% in the previous survey), potential natural disasters (down to 5.4 percent of consumers from 8.3%), and rising prices and scarcity of LPG (down to 2.5% from 3.9%). 

Most consumers expect heightened inflationary pressures over the next 6 months. The index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices rose 0.4% to 178.1. In regard to interest rates, consumers believe that interest rates are likely to increase over the next six months (this index rose 0.7% to 118.6). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are less pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (this index improved by 3.9% to 71.2).

The Buying Intentions Index weakened by 1.2% mom to 190.1. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions dropped in five of them (cars, motorcycles, land, audio-visual equipment, and livestock). Nonetheless, the index remains in an uptrend, reflecting strong consumer purchasing intentions for durable goods over the next six months.  

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 1.4% mom to 111.0, after falling 2.2% mom in the previous month. Four components of the CCGI posted a monthly increase. Notably, consumers have greater confidence in the government’s ability to ensure stable prices. Furthermore, consumers also have greater confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+2.9% mom to 109.3), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+2.7% mom to 120.0), ensure a safe and orderly environment (+1.6% mom to 115.7) and enforce the rule of law (+1.2% mom to 113.0). The only component of the CCGI to decline was the one measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (-1.7% mom to 96.8). 

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75