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Consumer Confidence Desember 2018
December 04, 2018 07:38 WIB

Consumer Confidence strengthened in November 2018. In this month, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 0.8 percent from 98.2 to 99.0, after dropping 3.2 percent in the previous survey. Our latest survey reveals that consumers are more upbeat on the economic outlook. In addition, they are also more positive on the job market outlook as well as their family incomes. Our survey also shows that consumer concerns on rising foodstuff prices eased in the November survey. On a less positive note, however, more consumers are worried by job scarcity at the present time.

One of the two main components which make up the CCI declined in November: the component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), fell 1.4 percent to 82.7, as sentiment toward the current state of the local economy and the job market deteriorated. The other main component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) - increased, however. This index added 2.0 percent to 111.3. The increase in this index reflects stronger consumer optimism toward the local economy and the job market outlook over the next six months.

With consumers being more upbeat on the national economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods increased in November. In our survey, 45.42 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, or up from 44.37 percent in the previous month. Furthermore, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are also higher since only 44.20 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good back in November 2017.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties weakened in the November survey. After increasing 4.2% in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI ) sl ipped 0.7% to 110.4. Two components of the CCGI increased in our latest survey, while the other three declined. Nonetheless, four CCGI components are still above the neutral level of 100, thereby indicating that
consumers are generally still convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties.

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Money Development 06 November 2018
November 06, 2018 17:26 WIB

Money Developments: Back on Track

Money supply grew at a faster pace in September than it did in August. Broad money or M2 grew by 6.7 percent YoY in September, or higher than its growth pace of 5.9 percent YoY in August. The faster pace of M2 growth was mainly due to the faster growth of quasi money – which is 74.5 percent of the total money supply. The faster growth of M2 in September mainly reflects an increase in government expenditures.

Deposits grew slightly more briskly at 6.5 percent YoY in September after growing by 6.3 percent in the previous month. Credit growth, meanwhile, has been maintained above 10 percent YoY in the last three months. In particular, working capital loans continued to post high growth. They grew by 12.4 percent YoY. The other credit components also showed brisk growth: investment loans grew by 11.3 percent while consumer loans grew by 11.5 percent.

Money Supply: Growing at a Faster Pace

Money supply grew at a faster pace in September than it did in August. Broad money or M2 grew by 6.7 percent YoY in September, or higher than its growth pace of 5.9 percent YoY in August. The faster pace of M2 growth was mainly due to the faster growth of quasi money – which is 74.5 percent of the total money supply. The growth of quasi money accelerated from 5.2 percent YoY in August to 6.3 percent YoY in September. By contrast, M1 (narrow money) grew at a slower pace in September than it did in August (8.2 percent YoY vs. 8.6 percent YoY),
holding back the M2 acceleration.

Looking at the factors which impacted M2 growth, the faster growth of M2 in September mainly reflects an increase in government expenditures, as reflected in the slower growth of government accounts in BI and the banking system, which dropped to 11.5 percent YoY in September, after growing 19.7 percent YoY in
August. Meanwhile, government bond issuances increased from IDR 35.44 trillion in August to IDR 47.42 trillion in September. Furthermore, net foreign assets growth contracted more sharply in September (-3.9 percent YoY) compared to -1.7 percent YoY in August, stemming from a further slowdown in the growth of foreign inflows which was inline with a fall in foreign reserves in September. By comparison, foreign liabilities increased due to an increase in the banking sector’s foreign liabilities.

In October, money supply growth is expected to grow at a similar pace. Adopting a tight money policy stance, BI makes adjustments for rising global volatility. In the October BI governors’ meeting, BI decided to hold the benchmark rate unchanged, with inflation low and manageable.

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Consumer Confidence November 2018
November 01, 2018 10:03 WIB

Consumer Confidence weakened in October 2018. In this month, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell by 3.2 percent from 101.5 to 98.2, after increasing by 4.1 percent in the previous survey. Our latest survey reveals that consumers gave more negative assessments on current economic conditions. They were also more negative on the outlook for the job market and their family incomes. Our survey also shows that consumer concerns on crop failure increased in the October survey. On a less negative note, however, fewer consumers were worried by the prospect of increases in the prices of foodstuffs and LPG.

The two main components which make up the CCI declined in October: the component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), fell 4.4 percent to 83.9, as sentiment toward the current state of both the national and local economy deteriorated. The other main component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – also declined,
falling 2.5 percent to 109.0. The fall in this index reflects weaker consumer optimism toward the local economy and the job market outlook over the next six months.

Although consumers are more upbeat on the national economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods still declined in October. This is partly due to less optimistic assessments on the local economic outlook. In our survey, 44.37 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, or down from 44.61 percent in the previous month. Nevertheless, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are still higher since only 42.05 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable
good back in October 2017.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties strengthened further in the October survey. After increasing 1.5% in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) climbed 4.2% to 111.2 in October. All components of the CCGI increased in our latest survey. Furthermore, four CCGI components are above the neutral level of 100, thereby indicating that consumers are generally still convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75