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Consumer Confidence Juni 2019
May 29, 2019 10:17 WIB

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped 0.7% mom in May 2019 to 103.1, yet still a relatively high level in the history of the survey. Both the Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) lost ground. While the PSI slipped 0.4% to 88.7, the EI fell more sharply by 0.8% to 113.9. Despite the decline in the CCI, consumer optimism is intact since the CCI still stands at a high level.

Consumers are less upbeat on the outlook for economic and local business conditions as well as family incomes over the next 6 months. By contrast, however, consumers believe that the outlook for the job market will improve. In our survey, 67.6 percent of respondents believe that their job security will improve over the next six months whereas only 2.9% believe it will worsen.

The CCI for urban areas rose for the third consecutive month to 106.4 (+0.8% mom), while the CCI for rural areas dipped 4.4% mom to 95.0. By province, the CCI fell in four of them: Jakarta (-1.8% mom to 118.9), West Java (-8.5% mom to 95.9), Central Java (-0.9% mom to 113.6) and South Sulawesi (-1.6% mom to 85.9). By contrast, the CCI was up in East Java (+3.2% mom to 107.9) and in North Sumatera (+6.5% mom to 101.5).

By income level, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) fell to 98.5 (-0.4% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI declined to 113.0 (-1.2% mom). By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) rose 0.8 percent to 89.6. As the CCI readings are above their 12-month averages, this indicates relatively strong consumer confidence which should support consumer spending over the near term.

Concerns over general prices continued to weigh on the local economy. Some 65.8 percent of consumers are more concerned by higher foodstuff prices (up from 62.5%), yet hardly unsurprising given that prices of various items tend to rise during Ramadan and ahead of Idul Fitri. Note that headline inflation reached 0.44% mom in April 2019 (+2.83% yoy), driven by higher prices of foodstuffs (volatile foods) and transportation (airfares). Other worries affecting consumers include: job scarcity (down to 32.9% from 34.9% in the previous survey), potential natural disasters (down to 5.4 percent of consumers from 8.3%), and rising prices and scarcity of LPG (down to 2.5% from 3.9%). 

Most consumers expect heightened inflationary pressures over the next 6 months. The index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices rose 0.4% to 178.1. In regard to interest rates, consumers believe that interest rates are likely to increase over the next six months (this index rose 0.7% to 118.6). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are less pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (this index improved by 3.9% to 71.2).

The Buying Intentions Index weakened by 1.2% mom to 190.1. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions dropped in five of them (cars, motorcycles, land, audio-visual equipment, and livestock). Nonetheless, the index remains in an uptrend, reflecting strong consumer purchasing intentions for durable goods over the next six months.  

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 1.4% mom to 111.0, after falling 2.2% mom in the previous month. Four components of the CCGI posted a monthly increase. Notably, consumers have greater confidence in the government’s ability to ensure stable prices. Furthermore, consumers also have greater confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+2.9% mom to 109.3), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+2.7% mom to 120.0), ensure a safe and orderly environment (+1.6% mom to 115.7) and enforce the rule of law (+1.2% mom to 113.0). The only component of the CCGI to decline was the one measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (-1.7% mom to 96.8). 

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Consumer Confidence Mei 2019
May 03, 2019 09:30 WIB

In April 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 1.8% mom to 103.8, its highest level since February 2005. The Present Situations Index (PSI) reached 89.1, up by 2.6%, and the Expectations Index (EI) increased by 1.4% to 114.8. Consumers gave more positive assessments on the current state of national and local economic conditions. Looking forward, consumers are also more optimistic on the outlook for local business conditions, employment and family incomes over the next six months.

The CCI increased in both urban and rural areas (+2.2% mom and +0.9% mom to 105.6 and 99.3, respectively). The CCI was up in Jakarta (+8.9% mom to 121.1), West Java (+4.6% mom to 104.8), South Sulawesi (+0.8% mom to 87.2) and North Sumatera (+3.7% mom to 95.3). By contrast, the CCI weakened in Central Java (-0.5% mom to 114.7) and East Java (-4.6% mom to 104.6).

By level of income, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) rose to 98.9 (+0.6% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI climbed to 114.3 (+5.2% mom). By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) dropped 6.6 percent to 89.0.

Several key issues continued to weigh on the local economy. Some 62.5 percent of consumers are concerned by high foodstuff prices (up from 60.9%), 8.3 percent of consumers fear potential natural disasters (up from 7.4%), and 3.9 percent are worried by rising prices and scarcity of LPG (up from 3.1%). Furthermore, some 34.9 percent of consumers mentioned job scarcity (albeit down from 42.0% in the previous survey).

Our survey indicates that consumers mostly expect inflationary pressures to ease over the next 6 months: the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices was flat at 177.5 (+0.0% mom). After Ramadan/Idul Fitri, general prices are expected to return to normal. In regard to interest rates, consumers believe that interest rates are likely to increase over the next six months (this index rose 0.2% to 117.6). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are still pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (this index fell further by 1.9% to 68.5).

The Buying Intentions Index continued to improve on a monthly basis to 192.4 (+0.5% mom, +11.5% yoy) in April, following a 0.9% increase in the previous month. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions increased in five of them (car, motorcycles, audio-visual equipment, gold and jewelry, and livestock). The uptrend in this index indicates that consumer purchasing intentions for durable goods over the next six months remains solid.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) weakened 2.2% mom to 109.4 following gains in threestraight months. However, since the CCGI components remain at high levels and above the neutral level of 100, respondents are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties. Four components of the CCGI declined in the latest survey. These measured sentiment toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth (-0.4% mom to 106.2), provide and maintain public infrastructure (-3.9% mom to 116.8), ensure a safe and orderly environment (-2.7% mom to 113.9) and enforce the rule of law (-3.8% mom to 111.7). By contrast, the component measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to stabilize general prices rose further (+0.4% mom to 98.5).

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Consumer Confidence April 2019
April 23, 2019 09:05 WIB

In March 2019, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) edged up by 1.4% mom to 101.9, an indication of buoyant
consumer confidence. The Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) both increased: the former by 3.3% mom to 86.9 and the latter by 0.3% mom to 113.2. In particular, consumers gave more positive assessments on the current state of the economy and job market. Looking forward, consumers were also more upbeat on the outlook for local business conditions and their incomes over the next six months.

The CCI increased in both urban and rural areas (+1.7% mom and 0.7% mom to 103.4 and 98.5, respectively). The CCI was up in West Java (+0.4% mom to 100.2), Central Java (+1.2% mom to 115.2), East Java (+2.2% mom to 109.6), South Sulawesi (+7.0% mom to 86.5) and North Sumatera (+4.1% mom to 91.9). By contrast, the CCI weakened in Jakarta (-6.4% mom to 111.2).

By level of income, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) and mid-income consumers
(between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) rose to 95.3 (+4.6% mom) and to 98.3 (+2.8% mom), respectively. By contrast, the CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month), dropped 0.6 percent to 108.7.

Several key issues are seen as weighing on the local economy. Some 42.0 percent of consumers mentioned job scarcity (up from 37.6%), while 7.4 percent of consumers are worried by potential natural disasters (up from 6.9%). Furthermore, 60.9 percent of consumers are worried by high foodstuff prices (down from 61.9%) and 3.3 percent by rising prices and scarcity of LPG (down from 7.4%).

Our survey indicates that consumers mostly expect inflationary pressures to rise over the next 6 months: the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices rose by 2.3% to 177.5. The end of the harvesting season and Ramadan/Idul Fitri are expected to contribute toward heighted pressure on prices. In regard to interest rates, consumers believe that interest rates are less likely to increase over the next six months (the index measuring sentiment toward interest rates fell 0.4% to 117.6). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are still pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (the index measuring sentiment toward the rupiah fell further by 6.9% to 69.9).

The Buying Intentions Index - which tracks consumer plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months – edged up on a monthly basis to 191.4 (+0.9% mom, +10.0% yoy) in March, following a 2.3% increase in the previous month. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions increased in three of them (bicycles, audio-visual equipment, and home appliances). The uptrend in this index bodes well for purchasing intentions going forward.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 1.9% mom to 111.9 following a 0.7% increase in February. Consumer appraisals toward the government’s ability to carry out its duties improved further. Most of the CCGI components stand above the neutral level of 100, indicating that respondents are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties. Four components of the CCGI were up in the latest survey: the index measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (+1.4% mom to 98.0), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+1.2% mom to 121.6), ensure a safe and orderly environment (+3.0% mom to 117.0) and enforce the rule of law (+3.7% mom to 116.1). However, the index measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth fell slightly (-0.2% mom to 106.6).

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75