Live Chat Software
Berita Dan Riset Terbaru
Kepercayaan Konsumen

Consumer Confidence Februari 2019
January 30, 2019 08:17 WIB

January’s survey data shows an improvement in consumer sentiment. The Danareksa Consumer Confidence Index
(CCI) climbed 1.5% mom to 102.3 from 100.7 in December 2018. The index has now increased in 3 consecutive
months. The Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) both posted gains: up by 1.3% mom and 1.7% mom, respectively, to 86.7 and 114.0. In our survey, consumers gave more positive assessments on the current state of the national economy and the job market. In addition, they were also more upbeat on the prospects for the national & local economies over the next 6 months.

Regionally, the CCI in urban areas (+1.1% mom) and rural areas (+2.6% mom) increased to 103.3 and 99.9,
respectively. The CCI increased in Jakarta (+2.9% mom to 117.8), West Java (+4.4% mom to 102.1), East Java (+4.4%
mom to 107.4), and South Sulawesi (+3.7% mom to 89.3). By contrast, the CCI fell in Central Java and North Sumatera to 116.7 (-0.4% mom) and 85.6 (-5.5% mom), respectively.

By level of income, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) and mid-income consumers
(between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) rose to 89.9 (+8.2% mom) and to 100.0 (+3.2% mom), respectively. By contrast, the CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) fell 1.2 percent to 109.1.

Our survey reveals that consumers are less concerned by several key issues than in the previous month. Overall, 63.3 percent of consumers said that high foodstuff prices were a major factor weighing on the local economy in the last 3 months (down from 66.8% in December), while 37.7% were worried by job scarcity (vs 39.1% in December), 9.8% by high LPG prices/scarcity (vs 9.9% in December), and 3.7% by crop failure (vs 5.2% in December).

Survey respondents mostly expect inflationary pressures to decline over the next 6 months, since the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices edged down by 0.2% to 176.7. This decline reflects lower prices of basic  foodstuffs (due to the harvesting season), the normalisation of transportation costs after the holiday season, and reductions in the prices of non subsidized fuels. In regard to interest rates, consumers expect lower interest rates over the next six months (the index measuring sentiment toward interest rates fell 5.9% to 112.4). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are more pessimistic on the rupiah’s outlook (the index measuring sentiment toward the rupiah fell 0.8% to 75.3).

The Buying Intentions Index - which tracks consumer plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months – edged lower to 185.5 (-0.2% mom, +1.4% yoy) in January, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions increased in four of them (motorcycles, bicycles, houses, and home appliances). Despite the decline, the index stands at a high level, suggesting that buying intentions should be fairly robust going forward.

Consumer sentiment toward the government’s ability to carry out its duties strengthened. The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rebounded 3.5% mom to 109.0 after falling 4.5% in December. All components of the CCGI rose in the latest survey. Four CCGI components currently stand above the neutral level of 100, indicating that consumers are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties. These four components are the index measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth, the index measuring sentiment toward providing and maintaining public infrastructure, the index measuring sentiment toward ensuring a safe and orderly environment, and the index measuring sentiment toward enforcing the rule of law.

Download artikel selengkapnya(193.29 Kb)
Consumer Confidence Januari 2019
January 11, 2019 10:09 WIB

Consumer Confidence strengthened further in December 2018. In this month, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 1.7 percent from 99.0 to 100.7, after increasing 0.8 percent in the previous survey. Our latest survey reveals that consumers gave more positive assessments on current economic conditions. At the same time, consumers are also more upbeat on the economic outlook. In addition, they are also more positive on their family incomes. Our survey also shows that consumer concerns on job scarcity eased in the December survey. On a less positive note, however, more consumers are worried by rising foodstuff prices at the present time.

The two main components which make up the CCI both increased in December. The component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), added 1.7 percent to 85.6, as sentiment toward the current state of the national economy and the job market improved. The other main component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – also increased. This index climbed 0.8 percent to 112.1. The increase in this index reflects stronger consumer optimism toward the national and local economy outlook over the next six months.

With consumers being more upbeat on the national economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods increased futher in December. In our survey, 45.65 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, or up from 45.42 percent in the previous month. However, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods were actually lower since 46.35 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good back in December 2017.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties weakened further in the December survey. After decreasing 0.7% in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) slipped 4.5% to 105.3 in December. All components of the CCGI declined in our latest survey. Nonetheless, three CCGI components are still above the neutral level of 100, thereby indicating that consumers are generally still convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties.

Download artikel selengkapnya(299.46 Kb)
Consumer Confidence Desember 2018
December 04, 2018 07:38 WIB

Consumer Confidence strengthened in November 2018. In this month, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 0.8 percent from 98.2 to 99.0, after dropping 3.2 percent in the previous survey. Our latest survey reveals that consumers are more upbeat on the economic outlook. In addition, they are also more positive on the job market outlook as well as their family incomes. Our survey also shows that consumer concerns on rising foodstuff prices eased in the November survey. On a less positive note, however, more consumers are worried by job scarcity at the present time.

One of the two main components which make up the CCI declined in November: the component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), fell 1.4 percent to 82.7, as sentiment toward the current state of the local economy and the job market deteriorated. The other main component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) - increased, however. This index added 2.0 percent to 111.3. The increase in this index reflects stronger consumer optimism toward the local economy and the job market outlook over the next six months.

With consumers being more upbeat on the national economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods increased in November. In our survey, 45.42 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, or up from 44.37 percent in the previous month. Furthermore, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are also higher since only 44.20 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good back in November 2017.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties weakened in the November survey. After increasing 4.2% in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI ) sl ipped 0.7% to 110.4. Two components of the CCGI increased in our latest survey, while the other three declined. Nonetheless, four CCGI components are still above the neutral level of 100, thereby indicating that
consumers are generally still convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties.

Download artikel selengkapnya(249.38 Kb)

Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75