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Consumer Confidence Oktober 2020
October 05, 2020 16:15 WIB

Consumer Confidence Oktober 2020
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Consumer Confidence September 2020
September 03, 2020 08:38 WIB

August 2020 Consumer Confidence: Early Signs of Optimism
Key Findings

The Consumer Confidence Index rose 3.7% to 74.0 in August 2020

Consumers were less concerned on rising foodstuff prices and job scarcity.
The buying intentions index was less solid on a monthly basis.
The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index rose further.

In August 2020, Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose again. The CCI increased from 71.4 to 74.0. This is the first increase since a sharp decline in April 2020 in response to the large-scale social restrictions policy taken by the government to curb the spread of Covid-19.

The two main CCI components both rose: the Present Situations Index (PSI) surged by 6.8% mom to 38.4 and the Expectations Index (EI) climbed 2.8% mom to 100.7. Consumer assessments on both current economic conditions and employment conditions improved. Our survey shows that the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “good” increased from 4.7 percent to 5.0 percent, while the proportion of consumers who said that economic conditions were ”bad” decreased from 77.7 percent to 76.2 percent. Looking ahead, some 26.0 percent of consumers believe that the economic outlook is “good”. This reading is down from 27.3 percent in the previous survey.

Consumers are more upbeat on the outlook for their family incomes over the next 6 months. The proportion of consumers expecting family incomes to increase over the next six months reached 13.5 percent. Similarly, consumers were also more upbeat on the job market outlook (11.3 percent vs. 10.5 percent in the previous survey). The recovery of economic and business activities as well as the disbursement of the National Economic Recovery program that continues to be carried out by the government were the driving factors for consumer optimism regarding the outlook for family incomes and the job market.

Consumer confidence strengthened in both rural and urban areas. The CCI for rural and urban areas reached 74.6 (+11.4% mom) and 73.7 (+0.8% mom), respectively. By province, the survey depicted mixed results. The CCI recovered in four areas: South Sulawesi (+15.1% to 76.3), East Java (+11.5% to 65.2), and Central Java (+1.0% to 84.2). By contrast, the CCI fell in Jakarta (-2.9% to 77.4), West Java (-3.3% to 104.6) and North Sumatera (-0.2% to 66.5).

By income level, the CCI improved across the board. The CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) rose by 10.4% mom to 72.6, while the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) climbed to 73.6 (+9.1% mom). Meanwhile, for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI rose by 7.2 percent to 83.2.

In August 2020, consumers were less worried by the issue of job scarcity (54.29% vs 57.31% in the previous survey) and rising foodstuff prices (45.01% vs 46.11% previously). These findings are in line with the pick-up in business and economic activity and the deflation in the foodstuffs component in the last few months. Moreover, consumer concerns on the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia also declined (43.62% vs 44.78% previously).
Consumer Confidence September 2020 edition
Consumer Confidence

Most consumers expect inflationary pressures to ease over the next 6 months (the index measuring sentiment toward general prices declined by 0.8% to 164.8). This is in line with the deflation that occurred in August 2020 of -0.10% mom (+1.54% yoy), mainly supported by lower prices in the foodstuffs and transportation components. Regarding the exchange rate, consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index rose by 9.1% to 94.5. At the same time, more consumers think that interest rates will decline over the near term (this index slipped 2.8% to 109.3).

Consumer buying plans were less solid. In our August survey, the buying intentions index fell further to 151.6 (-20.7 percent yoy). Among the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, consumer purchasing plans declined in five of them (automobiles, houses, land, home appliances, and livestock), while increases were seen in the other five categories (motorcycles, bicycles, home renovation, audio-visual equipment and gold jewelry). Plans to purchase bicycles are still increasing as an alternative choice for consumers to maintain their health amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose further to 114.3 (+2.1% mom) after posting a -1.1% decrease in the previous month. This is in line with the various policies taken by the government to reduce the impact of Covid-19 in Indonesia. Five of the CCGI components posted increases. Consumers expressed more confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+0.8 percent mom to 112.0), to stabilize general prices (+4.0 percent mom to 105.4), to ensure a safe and orderly environment (+1.2 percent mom to 157.9) and to enforce the rule of law (+5.6 percent mom to 127.4). By contrast, consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to provide and maintain public infrastructure (-1.3 percent mom to 159.2).

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Consumer Confidence Agustus 2020
August 03, 2020 13:58 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell for the fourth straight month in July 2020 to 71.4 from 72.6 in the previous month, although the large-scale social distancing restrictions have been eased by the government. The two main components of the CCI declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) declined by 2.4 percent mom to 35.9 and the Expectations Index (EI) fell 1.6 percent mom to 97.9. Consumers gave more negative assessments towards current national economic conditions and employment conditions. By contrast, consumers viewed local economic conditions more positively as this index rose by 3.9 percent in line with the end of large-scale social distancing restrictions in some areas. 

In our survey, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “bad” rose from 76.8 percent to 77.7 percent, while 17.1 percent of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. However, the proportion of consumers who stated that current economic conditions were “good” rose from 4.1 percent to 4.7 percent. The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia has been felt greatly by consumers, as reflected in the fourth decline in the CCI since April 2020.

Looking ahead, consumers are more upbeat on the outlook for the national economy over the next six months. These improving perceptionsreflect hopes of a brighter future aslarge-scale social restrictions have been lifted in some areas with the government providing a stimulus to reduce the impact of Covid-19. However, the proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased by 6.5 percent to 72.9. The proportion of consumers who expect that family incomes were “lower” rose from 39.2 percent to 41.6 percent. Similarly, consumers were less upbeat on the job market outlook as this index fell by 1.8 percent to 96.7. The proportion of consumers who expect that job market were “hard to get” increase from 13.1 percent to 13.8 percent. Job termination due to the spread of Covid-19 is still a major worry for many consumers.

Consumer confidence weakened in rural areas but rebounded in urban areas. For rural consumers, the CCI sank by 7.2 percent mom to 67.0 but for consumers in urban areas the CCI rose by 0.5 percent mom to 73.1. By province, the CCI fell in four of them: East Java (-19.1 percent mom to 58.5), South Sulawesi (-6.2 percent mom to 66.3), and North Sumatera (-1.9 percent mom to 66.6). This is in line with the increase in Covid-19 cases in several regions, especially East Java. By contrast, the CCI increased in West Java (+6.4 percent mom to 76.4), Jakarta (+6.0 percent mom to 79.7) and Central Java (+5.7 percent mom to 83.3). 

By income level, the CCI declined in one of the three income groups. For mid-income consumers (with incomes between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) the CCI dropped to 67.4 (-6.1 percent mom). By contrast, the CCI for low income consumers (with incomes below IDR 1.5 mn/month) rose to 65.7 (+1.7 percent mom) Consumer Confidence August 2020 Edition Consumer Confidence and the CCI for high-income consumers (with incomes above IDR 3.0 mn/month) rose to 77.6 (+0.9 percent mom).

In July 2020, consumers expressed greater concerns on job scarcity (57.31 percent vs 55.36 percent in the previous month), rising foodstuff prices (46.11 percent vs 44.23 percent in the previous month) and the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia (44.78 percent vs 41.2 percent in the previous month). At the same time, consumers were also worried about job termination (up to 20.59 percent) and were more worried by the decline in industrial production (14.97 percent vs 14.24 percent in the previous month).

Most consumers expect inflationary pressures to heighten over the next 6 months (the index measuring sentiment toward general prices jumped by 3.0 percent to 166.2). This is in line with the inflation in June which increased by 0.18 percent mom. In relation to the exchange rate, consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index rose by 19.4 percent to 74.4. At the same time, more consumers think that interest rates will increase over the near term (this index rose 3.8 percent to 112.5).

Consumer buying plans were less solid. In our July survey, the buying intentions index fell further to 158.2 (-17.2 percent yoy). Among the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, consumer purchasing plans declined in six of them (automobiles, motorcycles, bicycles, house renovation, audio-visual equipment and gold jewelry), while increases were seen in the other four categories (houses, land, home appliances and livestock). An increase in purchasing plans for livestock was seen ahead of the Eid al-Adha celebrations in late July 2020, while plans to purchase bicycles declined as a result of an increase in the number of Covid19 cases in several regions and an increase in bicycle prices.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) fell further by 1.1 percent mom to 112.0 following a 4.0 percent decline in the previous month. Four of the CCGI components posted declines. Consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (-4.3 percent mom to 111.1), to stabilize general prices (-1.4 percent mom to 101.3), to provide and maintain public infrastructure (-0.7 percent mom to 161.3), and to enforce the rule of law (-0.4 percent mom to 120.6).By contrast, however, consumers expressed more confidence in the government’s ability to ensure a safe and orderly environment (+1.3 percent mom to 156.0).

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75