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Consumer Confidence Februari 2020
January 30, 2020 10:43 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped to 102.5 in January 2020 from 104.9 in the previous month. The two main components of the CCI both declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) dropped by 4.5% mom to 85.6 and the Expectations Index (EI) slipped by 1.1% mom to 115.2. Consumer assessments toward current national and local economic conditions as well as the state of the job market all deteriorated. In our survey, the proportion of consumers claiming that current economic conditions were “good” dipped from 21.8% to 20.8%, while 49.9% of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. 

Looking ahead, consumers are less optimistic on the economic outlook and local business outlook over the next six months. On a positive note, however, the percentage of consumers who believe that the job market will remain stable rose to 80.3 percent. Also, the proportion of consumers expecting family incomes to increase over the next six months reached 25.1 percent (or up from 24.7 percent in the previous survey). 

Consumer confidence weakened in both urban and rural areas. The CCI for urban and rural areas slipped to 102.0 (-2.9% mom) and 103.6 (-0.9% mom), respectively. By province, the CCI fell in five of them: Jakarta (-4.3% mom to 108.5), West Java (-4.2% mom to 96.9), Central Java (-5.0% mom to 114.3), North Sumatra (-2.1% mom to 93.3) and South Sulawesi (-2.7% mom to 93.3). By contrast, the CCI only increased in East Java (+4.3% mom to 109.1). 

Consumer confidence was weaker in all income groups. The CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) fell to 97.7 (-4.4% mom), for low income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) the CCI declined to 90.5 (-3.6% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI declined to 109.8 (-0.8% mom).

Consumers mentioned several factors that dampened local economic conditions. Some consumers are concerned by higher foodstuff prices (62.70 percent or up from 60.21 percent in the previous month) and job scarcity (37.12 percent or up from 36.25 percent in the previous month). In addition, more consumers (mostly in rural areas) were also worried by the problem of crop failure (5.85%). 

Most consumers foresee milder inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general inflation fell by 1.8% mom to 176.5). At the same time, consumers also believe that interest rates will decline (this index dipped 2.1% mom to 119.8). However, consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index strengthened 2.3% mom to 69.2. 

Inline with the lower CCI, the Buying Intentions index fell on a monthly basis (-4.7% mom to 192.8) in the January survey. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying attentions dropped in eight of them (cars, motorcycles, bicycles, houses, land, home renovation, home appliances and gold). On an annual basis, buying intentions grew at a slower pace in the last three months. 

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) weakened 2.0% mom to 117.4 after posting a 4.3% mom increase in the previous month. All the CCGI components recorded declines. Consumers expressed less confidence in

the government’s ability to spur economic growth (-4.6% mom to 116.4), to stabilize general prices (-3.2% mom to 108.3), to provide and maintain public infrastructure (-1.1% mom to 123.6), to ensure a safe and orderly environment (-0.4% mom to 118.8) and to enforce the rule of law (-0.6% mom to 120.0). 

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Consumer Confidence November 2019
October 30, 2019 08:50 WIB

In October 2019, Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell further. The CCI declined from 98.9 to 97.7, its lowest level since August 2018. The two main components of the CCI both declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) fell by 3.1% mom to 80.7 and the Expectations Index (EI) slipped by 0.2% mom to 110.4. Consumer assessments toward current national economic, local economic, and employment conditions all deteriorated. Consumers were also less upbeat on the outlook. Our survey reveals that the proportion of consumers claiming that current economic conditions were “good” dipped from 18.4 percent to 17.4 percent, while 43.6 percent of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. Looking ahead, 21.2 percent believe that the economic outlook is “good” or down from 21.3 percent in the previous survey.

Consumers are also less upbeat on the outlook for local economic conditions and family incomes over the next 6 months. Some 19.5 percent of consumers believe that the local economic outlook is “good” (stable from the Sept survey), while 75.1 percent (compared to 76.3 percent in the Sept survey) believe that the outlook is “normal”. Furthermore, fewer consumers expect family incomes to improve over the next six months (20.0 percent compared to 20.6 percent in the previous survey).

Consumer confidence weakened in urban areas but rebounded in rural areas. For urban consumers, the CCI dipped 2.6% mom to 97.7 while for rural consumers the CCI rose 2.0% mom to 97.5. By province, the CCI fell in four of them: Jakarta (-5.5% to 103.2), West Java (-1.2% to 92.5), East Java (-2.6% to 108.2), and South Sulawesi (-10.8% to 77.6). By contrast, the CCI increased in North Sumatera (+7.9% to 93.0) and Central Java (+3.1% to 113.3).

By income level, the CCI declined in all groups. The CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) fell to 92.7 (-1.3% mom) and for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) the CCI dipped 3.4% mom to 86.1. Moreover, the CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) edged down by 1.8 percent to 105.0. 

For October 2019, consumers expressed more concerns on rising foodstuff prices (62.9% vs 43.8% in the previous survey) and job scarcity (39.8% vs 38.8% previously). In addition, consumers were more worried by natural disasters (up to 16.8%), particularly droughts and potential crop failure. They also pointed out the problem of LPG scarcity and higher prices of LPG as factors that worsened economic conditions in some regions (up to 14.9 percent). Some 78.6 percent of consumers in South Sulawesi mentioned LPG scarcity and prices as a concern.

Most consumers expect higher inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring sentiment toward general prices rose by 0.6% to 176.3). At the same time, consumers also believe that interest rates will decline (this index dipped 2.8% to 115.6). However, consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook since this index strengthened 1.1% to 71.2.

Consumer buying plans remain solid since the buying intentions index rose further to 205.6 (+15.2% yoy). Among the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, consumer purchasing plans rose significantly in seven of them (cars, motorcycles, bicycles, houses, land, home appliances and audio visual electronics). Expectations of lower interest rates going forward bolstered consumer buying plans.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) fell further by 0.9% mom to 114.0 after posting a 1.8% fall in the previous month. Three of the CCGI components recorded declines. Consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (-1.4% mom to 106.8), to ensure a safe and orderly environment (-3.1% mom to 114.8), and to enforce the rule of law (-3.8% mom to 112.7). Meanwhile, consumer confidence toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+1.4% mom to 112.1) and to provide and maintain public infrastructure (+2.5% mom to 123.9) posted gains.

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Consumer Confidence Agustus 2019
July 31, 2019 14:12 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 102.0 in July 2019 from 100.7 in June. Both indicators – i.e. the Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) - increased by 2.8% mom and 0.5% mom to 87.0 and 113.2, respectively. Consumers gave increasingly positive assessments toward current economic conditions and the job market. The proportion of consumers claiming that current economic conditions were “good” increased from 22.0 percent to 23.4 percent. In addition, consumers were more upbeat on the outlook for local business conditions and their family incomes over the next 6 months. The percentage of consumers expecting that their family incomes will improve over the next six months increased from 21.4 percent to 23.9 percent.

The CCI for urban consumers rose by 2.9% mom to 103.7, while the CCI for rural areas slipped to 98.0 (-2.5% mom). By province, the CCI increased in three of them: Jakarta (+2.5% mom to 117.3), North Sumatera (+12.8% mom to 96.1), and South Sulawesi (+4.9% mom to 84.6). By contrast, the CCI fell in West Java (-0.7%), Central Java (-4.6%), and East Java (-2.5%) to 101.3, 110.9, and 107.0, respectively.

By income level, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) rose to 98.5 (+2.9% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI climbed to 109.5 (+0.8% mom). By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) fell by 3.5 percent to 90.3. Lower CCI for low-income consumers was related to falling CCI for rural areas. However since the CCI readings stayed above their 12-month averages, this reflects relatively strong consumer confidence, suggesting there will not be any significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.

Our survey shows that 69.5 percent of consumers worry about higher foodstuff prices (up from 65.8% in the previous month) as well as job scarcity (up to 42.3% from 33.9% in the previous survey). Notably, there have been recent increases in the prices of rice, chilis, and vegetables in July following the Idul Fitri festivities. However, consumer concerns on potential natural disasters dropped from 6.8 percent to 4.6 percent. Since the new school year has begun, 0.12 percent of consumers also cited rising education costs as a concern.

Most consumers expect milder inflationary pressures and lower interest rates over the next 6 months. The index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices and interest rates fell by 1.0% and 0.2% to 173.1 and 121.5. At the same time, consumers in the main cities are pessimistic on the outlook for the rupiah (this index dipped 1.0% to 66.0).

The Buying Intentions Index gained traction in July. It rose to 192.2 (+1.8% mom), suggesting that buying intentions are solid. This also indicating that consumers more confident to long term economic outlook. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions rose in five of them (cars, motorcycles, bicycles, land, and houses). Stable consumer purchasing intentions for durable goods over the next six months should be maintained since the index is significantly higher on an annual basis (+14.1% yoy).

Inline with the increase in the CCI, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 4.4% mom to 116.4, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. All the CCGI components posted monthly increases, indicating that consumers are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties. Consumers have greater confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+5.8% mom to 115.7), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+1.2% mom to 121.9), stabilize general prices (+4.8% mom to 105.8), ensure a safe and orderly environment (+3.3% mom to 118.6) and enforce the rule of law (+7.3% mom to 120.1). 

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75