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Consumer Confidence Mei 2020
May 08, 2020 15:36 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell further from March’s level of 101.0 to 80.2 in April 2020, its lowest level since February 2011. The two main components of the CCI both declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) slumped 36.9 percent mom to 54.5 and the Expectations Index (EI) fell 11.1 percent mom to 99.5. Consumer assessments of current national and local economic conditions and employment conditions all deteriorated. Consumers were also less upbeat on the outlook. In our survey, the proportion of consumers who stated that the current economic conditions were “good” fell from 20.0 percent to 11.3 percent, while 27.1 percent of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the Indonesian economy has begun to be felt by consumers, especially after the government implemented a policy of social distancing and large-scale social restrictions in several regions. 

Looking ahead, consumers are less optimistic on the outlook for the economy and local business conditions over the next six months. The proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased 19.2 percent (or down from 21.8 percent in the previous survey). The proportion of consumers who believe that the job market will remain stable fell further to 59.6 percent.

Consumer confidence weakened in urban and rural areas. For urban consumers, the CCI declined by 21.1 percent mom to 79.7 and for rural areas the CCI declined by 18.8 percent mom to 81.7. By province, the CCI fell in all of them: Jakarta (-26.0 percent mom to 78.9), Central Java (-24.4 percent mom to 86.4), West Java (-21.0 percent mom to 73.5), East Java (-19.8 percent mom to 91.7), South Sulawesi (-16.8 percent mom to 76.6) and North Sumatra (-15.6 percent mom to 73.8). ? Consumer confidence also weakened for all income levels. The CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) dropped to 84.9 (-21.4 percent mom), while the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) fell to 76.0 (-20.9 percent mom). Similarly, for low income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month), the CCI dropped to 75.9 (-17.7 percent mom).

In April, consumers were less worried by the issue of rising foodstuff prices (49.28 percent vs 69.08 percent in the previous month’ssurvey) and job scarcity (35.64 percent vs 39.97 percent previously). These findings are inline with the lower inflationary pressures in March (prices only edged up 0.10 percent mom). Understandably, however, consumers were more worried by the threat posed by the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia (up to 24.48 percent). At the same time, consumers were also more worried by the decline in industrial production (up to 12.40 percent) and job termination (up to 9.50 percent) due to social distancing policies and large-scale social restrictions in several areas due to the increasing numbers of Covid-19 cases in the country.

Most consumers expect lower inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices declined by -7.8 percent mom to 169.5). In relation to the exchange rate, consumers in the main cities are less positive on the rupiah’s outlook (this index fell by 6.4 percent mom to 63.1). At the same time, more consumers think that interest rates will decline over the near term (this index slipped 12.2 percent mom to 107.2).

Consumer buying plans were less solid. In our April survey, the buying intentions index declined to 191.5 (0.5 percent yoy). Yet despite the fall in the overall buying intentions index, declines were only seen in two of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, while increases were seen in the other eight (automobiles, motorcycles, houses, land, audio-visual equipment, home appliances, livestock and gold jewelry). Buying intentions also performed less well than in the previous month when the buying intentions index rose by 0.3 percent yoy.  
 
The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose further on a monthly basis in April 2020 to 122.5 from 116.0. Three of the CCGI components recorded increases. Consumer confidence toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth rose (+14.1 percent mom to 129.1), while consumers were also more upbeat in the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (+21.3 percent mom to 124.9) and enforce the rule of law (+1.3 percent mom to 122.0). By contrast, however, consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to provide and maintain public infrastructure (-3.4 percent mom to 119.5) and to ensure a safe and orderly environment (-2.6 percent mom to 116.8). 
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Consumer Confidence April 2020
April 08, 2020 10:19 WIB

Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell further to 101.0 in March 2020 from February level of 102.5. The two main components of the CCI both declined: the Present Situations Index (PSI) fell by 1.3% mom to 86.4 and the Expectations Index (EI) declined by 1.7% mom to 111.9. Consumer assessments of current economic, local economic conditions and employment conditions all deteriorated. Consumers were also less up beat on the outlook. In survey, the proportion of consumers who stated that the current economic conditions were “good” dipped from 21.8% to 20.0%, while 50.6% of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. In this survey consumers indicate began concern about economic condition due to the Covid-19 outbreak in Indonesia.

Looking ahead, consumers are less optimistic on the outlook for the economy and local business conditions over the next six months. The proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased to 21.8% compared to the previous month. On a positive note, the percentage of consumers who believe that the job market will remain stable rose to 80.1%. ? Consumer confidence rebounded in rural areas but weakened in urban areas. For rural consumers, the CCI rose by 1.5% mom to 100.7 but declined by 2.7% mom to 101.1% in urban areas. By province, the CCI fell in fourth of them: Jakarta (-6.6% mom to 106.6), West Java (-5.8% mom to 93.1), North Sumatra (-2.1% mom to 87.4) and South Sulawesi (-5.1% mom to 92.1). By contrast, the CCI increased in Central Java (+1.9% mom to 114.2) and East Java (+6.1% mom to 114.4). ? By income level, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) fell to 96.1 (- 1.2% mom). And similarly, for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI dropped to 108.0 (-1.2% mom). By contrast, for low income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month), the CCI rebounded to 92.2 (5.8% mom).

Consumers mentioned several factors that dampened local economic conditions. Some consumers are concerned by higher foodstuff prices (the proportion increased to 69.08 percent from 68.10 percent in the previous month) and job scarcity (up to 39.97 percent from 38.28 percent in the previous month). These findings are inline with the heightened inflationary pressures in February (prices were up 0.28% mom). In addition, consumers were worried by the prospect of natural disaster (up to 7.02%). At the same time, consumers – especially those in rural areas - were concerned by the problem of crop failure (the proportion increased to 6.84% from 4.52%). There was a slight concern (0.41%) of disease outbreaks that could affect local economic condition. Consumer Confidence April 2020 Edition Consumer Confidence ? Most consumers expect higher inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices rose by 3.4% mom to 183.9). At the same time, consumers also believe that interest rates will declined over the near term (this index climbed 0.7% mom to 122.1). However, consumers in the main cities are less optimistic on the rupiah’s outlook (this index weakened 4.7% mom to 67.4). ? Consumer buying plans less solid with the buying intentions index grown at a slower pace to 192.0 (+0.3% yoy) in the March survey. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying attentions declined in seven of them but rose in only three (home renovation, auto mobile and bycicle). On an annual basis, buying intentions down sharply compared with the previous month (from 3.1% yoy to 0.3% yoy). This inline with the consumers concern about rising prices for goods in the next 6 month.

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) was stable on monthly basis in March 2020 at 106.0. Although the CCGI was stable, most of the CCGI components recorded declines except the components of provide and maintain public infrastructure measuring (+0.5% mom to 123.7). By contrast, consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to stabilize general prices (-0.09% mom to 103.0), ensure a safe and orderly environment (-0.1% mom to 119.9) and enforce the rule of law (-0.3% mom to 120.4). Meanwhile, the CCGI component to spur economic growth was stable in level 113.1%.

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Consumer Confidence Maret 2020
March 04, 2020 09:20 WIB

 Danareksa’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was stable on a monthly basis in February 2020 at 102.5. The two main components of the CCI moved in different directions. While the Present Situations Index (PSI) rose by 2.3% mom to 87.5, the Expectations Index (EI) declined by 1.2% mom to 113.8. Consumer assessments of current national and local economic conditions - as well as employment conditions - all improved. The proportion of consumers who stated that the current economic conditions were “good” increased from 20.8% to 21.8%, while 48.1% of consumers said that economic conditions were “normal”. Our latest survey did not capture the impact of arising from the global coronavirus outbreak.

Looking ahead, consumers are more optimistic on the outlook for the economy and local business conditions over the next six months. The percentage of consumers who believe that the job market will remain stable rose to 76.8%. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumers expecting better family incomes over the next six months decreased to 23.3% compared to the previous month. 

Consumer confidence rebounded in urban areas but weakened in rural areas. For urban consumers, the CCI rose by 1.9% mom to 103.9 but declined by 4.2% mom to 99.2% in rural areas. By province, the CCI fell in three of them: Central Java (-2.0% mom to 112.1), East Java (-1.2% mom to 107.8), and North Sumatra (-4.3% mom to 89.3). By contrast, the CCI increased in Jakarta (+5.1% mom to 114.1), West Java (+2.0% mom to 98.8) and South Sulawesi (+2.2% mom to 97.0). 

By income level, the CCI declined in all groups. The CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn – 3.0 mn/month) fell to 97.3 (-0.5% mom). For low income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month), the CCI declined to 87.1 (-3.8% mom) and for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) the CCI dropped to 109.4 (-0.3% mom).

Consumers mentioned several factors that dampened local economic conditions. Some consumers are concerned by higher foodstuff prices (the proportion increased to 68.10 percent from 62.70 percent in the previous month) and job scarcity (up to 38.28 percent from 37.12 percent in the previous month). These findings are inline with the heightened inflationary pressures in January (prices were up 0.38% mom). At the same time, consumers – especially those in rural areas - were less concerned on the problem of crop failure (the proportion dipped to 4.52% from 5.86%). Nonetheless, a large proportion of consumers in North Sumatera were still worried by this particular issue (12.83% in February 2020 compared to 12.13% in the previous month).

Most consumers expect higher inflationary pressures over the next 6 months (the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices rose by 0.8% mom to 177.8). At the same time, consumers also believe that interest rates will decline over the near term (this index climbed 1.2% mom to 121.3). Consumers in the main cities are more positive on the rupiah’s outlook (this index strengthened 2.3% mom to 70.8). 

Consumer buying plans remain solid with the buying intentions index rising further to 195.7 (+1.5% mom, +3.1% yoy) in the February survey. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying attentions rose in seven of them (among others land, home appliance, and motorcycle) but declined in only three (home renovation, audiovisual and livestock). On an annual basis, buying intentions have changed at a slower pace in the last three months. 

The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) continue to decline by 1.0% mom to 116.2 after posting a 2.0% mom decline in the previous month. Most of the CCGI components recorded declines except the components measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to enforce the rule of law (+0.6% mom to 120.8) and ensure a safe and orderly environment (+1.0% mom to 120.0). By contrast, consumers expressed less confidence in the government’s ability to spur economic growth (-2.8% mom to 113.1), stabilize general prices (-4.0% mom to 104.0), and provide and maintain public infrastructure (-0.4% mom to 123.1).  

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