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Consumer Confidence Maret 2019
February 28, 2019 10:09 WIB

Consumer optimism weakened in February 2019 after gaining ground in the previous month. In our latest survey, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell 1.8% mom to 100.5. Despite this decline, however, the CCI remains above the neutral level of 100, indicating that consumer sentiment is still relatively buoyant. The Present Situations Index (PSI) dipped by 3.1% mom to 84.1, owing to less positive assessments on the current state of the economy and the job market. The Expectations Index (EI) also fell. It dipped 1.0% mom to 112.8, a reflection of weaker consumer optimism toward local business conditions and family incomes over the next six months.

The CCI declined in both urban and rural areas (-1.6% mom and -2.1% mom to 101.6 and 97.8, respectively). The CCI was down in West Java (-2.2% mom to 99.8), Central Java (-2.5% mom to 113.9), East Java (-0.1% mom to 107.3), and South Sulawesi (-9.5% mom to 80.8). By contrast, the CCI strengthened in Jakarta (+0.8% mom to 118.8) and North Sumatera (+3.2% mom to 88.3).

By level of income, the CCI for mid-income consumers (between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) fell 4.4 percent to 95.6. By contrast, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) and high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) rose to 91.1 (+1.4% mom) and to 109.3 (+0.1% mom), respectively.

Several key issues are seen as weighing on the local economy. Some 37.6 percent of consumers mentioned job scarcity (unchanged from January), while 4.8 percent of consumers (particularly in rural areas) are worried by the risk of crop failure (up from 3.7%) and 6.9% by potential natural disasters (up from 5.3%). However, 61.9 percent of consumers are less worried by high foodstuff prices (down from 63.3%) and 7.4 percent by rising fuel prices (down from 9.8%).

Our survey shows that consumers mostly expect inflationary pressures to ease over the next 6 months: the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices edged down by 1.8% to 173.5. Notably, there have been recent declines in the prices of foodstuffs such as eggs, chicken meat, onions and chili, as well as further reductions in the prices of non subsidized fuels. In regard to interest rates, consumers expect higher interest rates over the next six months (the index measuring sentiment toward interest rates rose 5.0% to 118.1). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are still pessimistic on the rupiah’s outlook (the index measuring sentiment toward the rupiah fell 0.3% to 75.1).

The Buying Intentions Index - which tracks consumer plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months – edged higher to 189.7 (+2.3% mom, +6.0% yoy) in February, following a 0.2% decline in the previous month. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions increased in five of them (automobiles, audiovisual equipment, home appliances, gold & jewelry, and land). The uptrend in this index bodes well for purchasing intentions going forward.

Consumer sentiment toward the government’s ability to carry out its duties improved further. The Consumer
Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rose 0.7% mom to 109.8 following a 3.5% increase in January. Four
components of the CCGI were up in the latest survey: the index measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth (+2.2% mom to 106.8), stabilize general prices (+2.4% mom to 96.7), provide and maintain public infrastructure (+0.0% mom to 120.1), and enforce the rule of law (+0.9% mom to 111.9). However, the index measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to ensure a safe and orderly environment fell 1.4% mom to 113.6. Most of the CCGI components currently stand above the neutral level of 100, indicating that consumers are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties.

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Consumer Confidence Februari 2019
January 30, 2019 08:17 WIB

January’s survey data shows an improvement in consumer sentiment. The Danareksa Consumer Confidence Index
(CCI) climbed 1.5% mom to 102.3 from 100.7 in December 2018. The index has now increased in 3 consecutive
months. The Present Situations Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI) both posted gains: up by 1.3% mom and 1.7% mom, respectively, to 86.7 and 114.0. In our survey, consumers gave more positive assessments on the current state of the national economy and the job market. In addition, they were also more upbeat on the prospects for the national & local economies over the next 6 months.

Regionally, the CCI in urban areas (+1.1% mom) and rural areas (+2.6% mom) increased to 103.3 and 99.9,
respectively. The CCI increased in Jakarta (+2.9% mom to 117.8), West Java (+4.4% mom to 102.1), East Java (+4.4%
mom to 107.4), and South Sulawesi (+3.7% mom to 89.3). By contrast, the CCI fell in Central Java and North Sumatera to 116.7 (-0.4% mom) and 85.6 (-5.5% mom), respectively.

By level of income, the CCI for low-income consumers (below IDR 1.5 mn/month) and mid-income consumers
(between IDR 1.5 mn-3.0 mn/month) rose to 89.9 (+8.2% mom) and to 100.0 (+3.2% mom), respectively. By contrast, the CCI for high-income consumers (above IDR 3.0 mn/month) fell 1.2 percent to 109.1.

Our survey reveals that consumers are less concerned by several key issues than in the previous month. Overall, 63.3 percent of consumers said that high foodstuff prices were a major factor weighing on the local economy in the last 3 months (down from 66.8% in December), while 37.7% were worried by job scarcity (vs 39.1% in December), 9.8% by high LPG prices/scarcity (vs 9.9% in December), and 3.7% by crop failure (vs 5.2% in December).

Survey respondents mostly expect inflationary pressures to decline over the next 6 months, since the index measuring consumer sentiment toward general prices edged down by 0.2% to 176.7. This decline reflects lower prices of basic  foodstuffs (due to the harvesting season), the normalisation of transportation costs after the holiday season, and reductions in the prices of non subsidized fuels. In regard to interest rates, consumers expect lower interest rates over the next six months (the index measuring sentiment toward interest rates fell 5.9% to 112.4). At the same time, consumers in the main cities are more pessimistic on the rupiah’s outlook (the index measuring sentiment toward the rupiah fell 0.8% to 75.3).

The Buying Intentions Index - which tracks consumer plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months – edged lower to 185.5 (-0.2% mom, +1.4% yoy) in January, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. Of the ten categories of goods tracked by our survey, buying intentions increased in four of them (motorcycles, bicycles, houses, and home appliances). Despite the decline, the index stands at a high level, suggesting that buying intentions should be fairly robust going forward.

Consumer sentiment toward the government’s ability to carry out its duties strengthened. The Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) rebounded 3.5% mom to 109.0 after falling 4.5% in December. All components of the CCGI rose in the latest survey. Four CCGI components currently stand above the neutral level of 100, indicating that consumers are still generally convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties. These four components are the index measuring sentiment toward the government’s ability to spur economic growth, the index measuring sentiment toward providing and maintaining public infrastructure, the index measuring sentiment toward ensuring a safe and orderly environment, and the index measuring sentiment toward enforcing the rule of law.

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Consumer Confidence Januari 2019
January 11, 2019 10:09 WIB

Consumer Confidence strengthened further in December 2018. In this month, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 1.7 percent from 99.0 to 100.7, after increasing 0.8 percent in the previous survey. Our latest survey reveals that consumers gave more positive assessments on current economic conditions. At the same time, consumers are also more upbeat on the economic outlook. In addition, they are also more positive on their family incomes. Our survey also shows that consumer concerns on job scarcity eased in the December survey. On a less positive note, however, more consumers are worried by rising foodstuff prices at the present time.

The two main components which make up the CCI both increased in December. The component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), added 1.7 percent to 85.6, as sentiment toward the current state of the national economy and the job market improved. The other main component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – also increased. This index climbed 0.8 percent to 112.1. The increase in this index reflects stronger consumer optimism toward the national and local economy outlook over the next six months.

With consumers being more upbeat on the national economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods increased futher in December. In our survey, 45.65 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, or up from 45.42 percent in the previous month. However, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods were actually lower since 46.35 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good back in December 2017.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties weakened further in the December survey. After decreasing 0.7% in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) slipped 4.5% to 105.3 in December. All components of the CCGI declined in our latest survey. Nonetheless, three CCGI components are still above the neutral level of 100, thereby indicating that consumers are generally still convinced in the government’s ability to carry out its duties.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75