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Danareksa Equity Snapshot - ANTM 27 April 2018
April 27, 2018 10:00 WIB

Aneka Tambang(ANTM IJ)

Strong prices and higher sales boosted profits

 

Aneka Tambang (ANTM) reported net profits of IDR246bn in 1Q18 (-47.5% qoq, but +3,602.8% yoy). The better yearly net profits reflect strong commodity prices and higher sales volume. The 1Q18 net profits figure is above our estimate mainly thanks to better-than-expected sales volume of gold and wider margins. We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a target price of IDR1,000 (based on DCF valuation).

 

Lower quarterly net profits in the absence of gains from divestment of Dairi Prima. The company reported 47.5% qoq lower quarterly net profits of IDR246bn in 1Q18, reflecting: a) the absence of gains from the divestment of Dairi Prima Minerals of IDR776bn that were booked in 4Q17, and b) lower quarterly sales volume of ferronickel and gold. Nonetheless, thanks to the strong nickel price, revenues were slightly higher. In addition, 38.7% qoq lower operating expenses helped to cushion against a further decline in quarterly net profits.

 

Yearly net profits boosted by strong sales volume and higher prices.  The company reported strong net profits of IDR246bn in 1Q18 from only IDR7bn in 1Q17. This reflects: a) higher sales volume of ferronickel, nickel ore and gold and b) strong nickel and gold prices. Thanks to the buoyant prices, the gross margin improved to 12.7% in 1Q18 from 5.0% in 1Q17.

 

Higher production target for 2018. ANTM targets 19% yoy higher ferronickel production of 26,000 tonnes in 2018.  By boosting production, ANTM seeks to gradually increase the utilization of its ferronickel plant capacity in order to raise production to meet its production capacity of 27,000 tonnes. At the same time, ANTM also expects to double its nickel ore production to 11.3mn Wmt in 2018 (2017: 5.6mn Wmt). For gold production, the company targets 11% yoy higher sales volume of 2,201 kg from the Pongkor and Cibaliung mines.

 

Maintain HOLD.  We expect ANTM to post strong earnings in 2018 supported by higher ferronickel sales, nickel ore as well as rising nickel prices albeit at a slower rate. We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a target price of IDR1,000 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 9.6% and long-term growth of 3%).

 

 

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Danareksa Equity Snapshot - BJTM 27 April 2018
April 27, 2018 09:46 WIB

BPD Jatim(BJTM IJ)

Modest growth

 

We maintain our BUY call on BJTM with a GGM-derived TP of IDR830, liking the bank for its strong foothold in East Java’s civil servants multipurpose lending segment even though more players are competing in this segment. That said, CAR will remain healthy at 24.4% with 7.5% loans growth expected this year. The bank’s commercial lending will be driven mainly by the syndicated loans scheme as the bank seeks to achieve a more manageable risk profile. As such, we assume a gross NPLs ratio of 4.4% and a 97% coverage ratio by the end of the year with 77bps credit costs.

 

1Q18 highlights. 1Q18’s net profits of IDR377bn are inline with our forecast and its seasonal pattern as the 1Q results were 29.0-30.4% of the full year figure in the past three years. NIM contracted to 6.6% on the back of lower asset yields as BJTM adjusted down its lending rates by 100-200bps in general. The gross NPLs ratio and coverage ratio were flat at 4.8% and 95.4%, respectively, on a yoy comparison, with a 74bps credit cost (vs 132bps in 1Q17). All in all, we maintain our forecasts of 7.5% loans growth and 8.6% net profits growth this year.

 

Consumer lending will continue to be the driver. While multipurpose loans will continue to account for most of BJTM’s loans, the bank can also leverage its strong customer-base covering regional civil servants to boost its mortgage lending. As for commercial lending, it may only be driven by the syndicated loans scheme (along with other big SOE banks) on certain infrastructure projects, i.e. the Pasuruan-Banyuwangi toll road. This year, we estimate that consumer loans will grow by 8.6%, thus pushing up the contribution from consumer loans to total loans to 70.8% by the end of the year.

 

Lower NIM projection. Amid tight competition in multipurpose lending with BBRI as its closest peer, BJTM recently cut its lending rate in this segment to 11-12% (previously 13-14%). Nonetheless, we still expect the bank’s funding structure to remain secure thanks to strong support from the local government, both institutional and retail customer-based. Taking these factors into account, we project a compression in NIM to 7.8% given a lower assets yield of 11.4% for 2018.

 

BUY with a TP of IDR830. We maintain our BUY call on BJTM with a GGM-derived TP of IDR830 assuming 11% CoE, 14.9% sustainable ROAE and 3% long-term growth. Our TP implies 1.5x 2018F P/BV.

 

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Danareksa Equity Snapshot - PTPP 27 April 2018
April 27, 2018 09:44 WIB

Pembangunan Perumahan(PTPP IJ)

Change at the top

 

The shareholders approved the appointment of Mr. Lukman Hidayat as the new CEO of PTPP following the appointment of Mr. Tumiyana as the new CEO of WIKA. Mr. Hidayat previously served as the Director of Strategic planning and Development of PTPP. The shareholders also approved the distribution of cash dividends of IDR46.88 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.9%. Maintain BUY.

Mr Lukman Hidayat has been appointed as the new CEO of PTPP. This follows the appointment of Mr. Tumiyana (2016 - Apr 18) as the new CEO of WIKA. With more than 28 years of working experience in the company, we believe PTPP will be in capable hands. Mr. Hidayat started his career at PTPP in 1990 and he previously served as the Director of Strategic planning and Development starting from Mar 2014. 

Not many changes in the new BoD. There are not many changes in PTPP’s new BoD. Of the six members of the board, there is only one new face: Mr. Anton Satyo Hendriatmo, the new Director of Building Construction. Mr. Hendriatmo replaces Mr. Aprindy who has been appointed as the Director of Strategic Planning and Development replacing Mr. Hidayat (see exhibit 7 for details).

Plans to distribute dividends of IDR46.9 per share. The shareholders also approved the distribution of 20% of the 2017 earnings as cash dividends. This translates into IDR290.6bn in total or IDR46.88 per share. The dividend payment of IDR46.88/sh is 5.3% lower than last year’s dividend of IDR49.52/sh due to a lower payout ratio. For this year, the payout ratio is set at 20% or lower than 30% in 2017. At the current share price, the stock has a dividend yield of 1.9%.

PTPP booked new contracts of IDR5.2tn in 2M18. This figure is 10.6% of the management’s full year target of IDR49.0tn (+18.4%yoy; FY17: IDR41.4tn). As such, the order book as of Feb 18 reached IDR63.3tn, including IDR58.1tn of carry over contracts. By project owner, around 71% of the new contracts booked in 2M18 were SOE projects, 27% private projects, and only 2% government projects. The management expects more government projects to be booked in 2Q onwards.


Maintain BUY. We are awaiting the issuance of 1Q18’s unaudited result and we believe more contracts will be booked over the following quarters since the announcement of the winning bids for most government projects occurs in 2Q onwards. Yesterday, PTPP’s share price dropped 8.3%, resulting in an attractive valuation. Based on the current share price, PTPP trades at 8.7x 2018 PE, below its -1 SD of 12.5x. Maintain BUY.

 

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