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Danareksa Equity Snapshot - 24 Januari 2018
January 24, 2018 14:08 WIB

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

MARKET NEWS

Macroeconomy

  • Government: Non-tax state revenue may increase

Sector

  • Cement: Lower net profit in 2017
  • Consumer: Cosmetic products should enjoy higher demand this year

Corporate

  • Delta Dunia Makmur targets 24.37%yoy higher coal production
  • Indocement to operate new cement terminal in Palembang
  • Wijaya Karya: Its Komodo Bonds oversubscribed by 2.5x

 

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Danareksa Equity Snapshot - PWON 23 Januari 2018
January 24, 2018 14:07 WIB

Pakuwon Jati

Fully valued


We downgrade our recommendation on PWON from BUY to HOLD while retaining our Target Price of IDR720, noting that the recent increase in the share price has resulted in the stock being fully valued. The 2017 marketing sales reached IDR2.5tn, +10.1%yoy - INLINE with the management’s target (96.4%) yet slightly above our target (105.6%). The impressive performance mainly came from the higher contribution of the landed residential projects (+37.8%yoy). For 2018, the company only expects flat marketing sales of IDR2.6tn (+3.7%yoy).

2017 marketing sales: inline with expectations. PWON recorded marketing sales of IDR2.5tn in 2017, +10.1%yoy. This figure is slightly above our marketing sales target of IDR2.3tn (105.6%) yet inline with the management’s target of IDR2.6tn (96.4%). Sales of landed residential property at Pakuwon City and Grand Pakuwon contributed around 14-16% (each) of the total marketing sales. Meanwhile, for high-rise projects, PWON mainly sold property in its existing projects as the company did not conduct any new product launches for its high-rise projects in 2017.

A more conservative outlook for 2018. For 2018, PWON only targets marketing sales of IDR2.6tn (+3.7%yoy), relatively flat year-on-year. While the company expects to launch a new greenfield project in Bekasi towards the end of 2018, PWON is taking a “wait and see” stance in regard to the Presidential election in 2019, and thus the company has not included the expected marketing sales proceeds from this project into its numbers. Sharing the same view, we also expect the company to record flat marketing sales of ID2.6tn in 2018. We believe that upside from our marketing sales target would potentially be driven from this new project.

New tower launching in 1Q18. PWON plans to launch a new apartment tower named La Vis in Pakuwon Mall phase 4 in 1Q18. With the units ranging from 66-174sqm in size, PWON will offer the apartments at prices from IDR1.8-4.7bn/unit (implying IDR27mn/sqm). Although these prices are higher than the prices offered for its preceding apartment towers (Anderson and Benson at IDR19-22mn/sqm), we remain upbeat on the expected marketing sales proceeds in view of the good traffic at Pakuwon Mall in addition to good marketing sales achievement from the more premium apartments offered in the Pakuwon Mall phase 3 (IDR206bn, +6.7%yoy).

Downgrade to HOLD: Fully valued.Despite the encouraging marketing sales in 2017, we downgrade our recommendation on PWON from BUY to HOLD, while retaining our Target Price of IDR720 (SOTP based valuation with WACC of 12.6%, Terminal Value of 4.0%, and 40% target discount to NAV, noting that the recent increase in the share price has resulted in limited upside to our Target Price.

… read more 20180123 PWON


Danareksa Equity Snapshot - 23 Januari 2018
January 24, 2018 14:06 WIB

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Pakuwon Jati:  Fully valued (POWN IJ. IDR 700. HOLD. TP IDR 720)

We downgrade our recommendation on PWON from BUY to HOLD while retaining our Target Price of IDR720, noting that the recent increase in the share price has resulted in the stock being fully valued. The 2017 marketing sales reached IDR2.5tn, +10.1%yoy - INLINE with the management’s target (96.4%) yet slightly above our target (105.6%). The impressive performance mainly came from the sale of high rise property in existing projects. For 2018, the company only expects flat marketing sales of IDR2.6tn (+3.7%yoy).

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MARKET NEWS

Macroeconomy

  • Budget absorption of Ministry Public Works has reached 90%
  • Capital inflows up by 9.5% yoy in 2017

Sector

  • Pharmaceutical: Stagnant growth expected, driven by national health program

Corporate

  • Indofood CBP: ICBP and subsidiary to acquire the remaining stake in AIBM and IASB
  • Kereta Api Indonesia to make payment to Adhi Karya for LRT construction on 15 January

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CORNER

Market Maker

  • IHSG. 6,500. POSITIVE. TP 6,535.

Stock Shoot

  • ASII. IDR 8,250. BUY. TP IDR 8,650.
  • GMFI. IDR 350. BUY. TP IDR 400.
  • INDF. IDR 8,075. BUY. TP IDR 9,000.
  • JSMR. IDR 6,025. BUY. TP IDR 6,775.
  • UNTR. IDR 38,525. BUY. TP IDR 41,000.

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