Live Chat Software
Berita Dan Riset Terbaru
Riset Perusahaan

Danareksa Equity Snapshot - 21 Juni 2018
June 21, 2018 09:04 WIB

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

MARKET NEWS

Macroeconomics

  • Tax incentive for SMEs to be applied in July 1 2018
  • Disbursement of village fund reaches IDR 26.7tn

Corporate

  • SMRA:  IDR5tn sales backlog to be booked as revenues
  • Wijaya Karya:  To develop a new toll road project with CMNP

To see the full version of our snapshot, please click here


Danareksa Equity Snapshot - Plantation Sector (NEUTRAL) May Inventory Hits A 9-Month Low
June 20, 2018 13:12 WIB

Plantation

May Inventory Hits A 9-Month Low

Malaysia’s palm oil inventory declined to a 9-month low of 2.17mn tons in May 18 (+39.4% YoY, -0.5% MoM), above the consensus estimate of 2.13mn tons, due to weaker-than-expected exports. We think that palm oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short-term due to seasonally-higher production and export normalization as well as weak soy prices resulting from the US-China trade spat and in anticipation of good soy harvests in the US. Maintain neutral.

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpile drops for the fifth time in a row. According to the latest release by MPOB, Malaysia’s palm oil inventory fell to 2.17mn tons in May 18 (+39.4% YoY, -0.5% MoM) from 2.18mn tons in Apr 18. Despite the decline, the 2.17mn tons figure is still above the consensus estimate of 2.13mn tons, mainly reflecting weaker-than-expected exports which offset the decline in output. We may see a flat or slightly lower inventory level in Jun 18 given the likelihood of subdued exports and output resulting from lower productivity associated with the fasting period.

Output declined further on a MoM basis in May 18. Palm oil output was reported at 1.53mn tons in May 18 (-7.8% YoY, -2.1% MoM), still above consensus estimates of 1.50mn tons. Peninsula areas led the decline in production (-8.6% YoY, -3.9% MoM) compared to Sabah/Sarawak (-6.9% YoY, -0.0% MoM). We think that the weak output may owe to lower productivity associated with the start of fasting in mid-May and may also be reflected in Jun 18’s output figure. In our view, the MoM decline in output in May 18 is rather unusual as historically, the MoM output in May increases by 4.1% (5-year average). In 5M18, palm oil output reached 7.59mn tons (+5.3% YoY).

Weaker-than-expected exports in May 18. Palm oil exports reached 1.29mn tons in May 18 (-14.3% YoY, -15.7% MoM), falling short of consensus estimates of 1.35mn tons. We believe this largely owed to the reinstatement of Malaysia’s CPO export duty in May 18. Exports were mainly dragged down by India (-72.5% YoY, -74.6% MoM) due to higher CPO import tax duty and the EU (-19.6% YoY, -33.7% MoM) on increased scrutiny of palm oil products. We believe exports will remain subdued in Jun 18 due to a lack of catalysts post Ramadan. In 5M18, palm oil exports totaled 7.10mn tons (+10.1% YoY).

The soyoil-CPO price spread remained tight at USD75/ton at the end of May 18 (compared to USD64/ton in Apr 18). Soy product prices remained under pressure throughout the month due to uncertainty over the US-China trade dispute.

Maintain neutral. We maintain our neutral call on the plantation sector with LSIP as our top pick. We believe that palm oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short-term due to seasonally-higher production and export normalization as well as weak soy prices resulting from the US-China trade spat and in anticipation of good soy harvests in the US. We forecast a CPO price of MYR2,700/ton in FY18.

… read more 20180620 Plantation


Danareksa Equity Snapshot - 20 Juni 2018
June 20, 2018 13:11 WIB

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Plantation: May Inventory Hits A 9-Month Low (NEUTRAL)

Malaysia’s palm oil inventory declined to a 9-month low of 2.17mn tons in May 18 (+39.4% YoY, -0.5% MoM), above the consensus estimate of 2.13mn tons, due to weaker-than-expected exports. We think that palm oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short-term due to seasonally-higher production and export normalization as well as weak soy prices resulting from the US-China trade spat and in anticipation of good soy harvests in the US. Maintain neutral.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

To see the full version of our snapshot, please click here

MARKET NEWS

Sector

  • Banks plan to issue more wholesale funding instruments
  • Consumer: Jakarta governor to discuss the sale of the city’s DLTA stake with the House of Representatives
  • Consumer: Meat and egg prices have increased
  • EU to soften its stance on phasing out palm oil

Corporate

  • CTRA expects overseas project revenues to increase by 30%