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CPI & SBI Outlook

CPI & SBI Outlook August 2016
August 30, 2016 14:31 WIB

Inflation jumped again in July. In this month, consumer prices climbed 0.69 percent mom, after the 0.66 percent increase in June. Compared to July 2015, headline inflation reached 3.21 percent. Prices in both the foodstuffs and non-foodstuffs components continued to rise (+0.86 percent MoM and +0.60 percent MoM, respectively). The greater pressure on prices stemmed from the impact of the Idul Fitri festivities and the start of the new academic year. ?

All CPI components rose on a monthly basis. Prices in the transportation component increased the most (+1.22% mom), since many urban residents travel back to their hometowns during Lebaran. Prices also increased in the foodstuffs component (+1.12% mom), the prepared foods component (+0.54% mom), the education component (+0.51% mom), the clothing component (+0.44% mom), the medical care component (+0.37% mom), and the housing component (+0.24% mom).

For August, we predict milder inflation as the seasonal impact from the fasting month ends. As such, prices in the foodstuffs, prepared foods, clothing and transportation components will return to normal. Nonetheless, the new school year - which begins in the July-September period – will intensify pressures in the education component.

For August 2016, we forecast inflation of 0.06 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 2.87 percent. ?

Bank Indonesia now uses the BI 7-Day RR Rate as its new policy rate to replace the BI Rate. At the central bank’s latest meeting, the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7-Day RR Rate) was kept unchanged at 5.25 percent. Meanwhile, the Deposit Facility rate was unchanged at 4.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate cut by 100 bps to 6.00 percent. Amid the sluggish global economic recovery, we expect domestic inflation to remain benign, the rupiah to stay stable, and with a more manageable current account deficit over the short-term. As such, BI still appears to have room to lower its benchmark interest rate, a move which would help to give a boost to domestic demand.

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CPI & SBI Outlook June 2016
June 30, 2016 09:21 WIB

Consumer prices picked up in May 2016. On a monthly comparison, the headline inflation rate reached 0.24 percent following the deflation of 0.45 percent in April. On an annual basis, however, the inflation rate eased to 3.33 percent yoy. By component, prices in both the foodstuffs component (+0.43 percent MoM) and the non- oodstuffs component (+0.14 percent MoM) rose. The rising inflationary pressures mainly owed to the end of the harvesting season and the approach of Ramadan.

All of the CPI components posted increases. The prepared foods component increased the most (+0.58% mom), followed by the clothing component (+0.44% mom), and the foodstuffs component (+0.30% mom). The medical care component (+0.27% mom) and the transportation component (+0.21% mom) also edged higher, while the education component (+0.03% mom) and the housing component (+0.02% mom) were relatively stable.

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CPI & SBI Outlook March 2016
March 30, 2016 09:40 WIB

Consumer prices declined in February with deflation of 0.09 percent MoM. On a YoY comparison, headline inflation reached just 4.42 percent. By component, both the foodstuffs component (-0.04 percent MoM) and the non-foodstuffs component (-0.13 percent MoM) posted declines.

Three components of the CPI posted monthly declines in February, namely the foodstuffs, housing and transportation components, which fell by 0.58 percent, 0.45 percent, and 0.15 percent, respectively. By contrast, prices in the clothing component (+0.64 percent MoM) and prepared foods component (+0.63 percent MoM) posted higher increases, while prices in the medical care component (+0.26 percent MoM) and education component (+0.06 percent MoM) posted lower increases.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn

Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2017

MoM(%) 0.74
YoY(%) 3.26

End of period(% p.a) 4.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.30
SBI(% p.a) 4.75