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Stock Shoot - LPPF
May 26, 2017 07:51 WIB

Kinerja saham LPPF cenderung melemah setelah berada pada kisaran level resistance di Harga 15.921 pada tanggal 23 mei 2017 dalam kisaran Harga tertinggi yang telah diuji sebelumnya. Potensi pelemahan tersebut menjadi potensi jangka pendek, disertai dengan kinerja LPPF yang berada dalam kondisi jenuh beli atau overbought pada kisaran Harga 15.921. Rekomendasi beli LPPF sebelumnya di sampaikan dalam riset stock shoot pada tanggal 26 April 2016 di Harga 13.450 dengan rekomendasi jual pada di Harga 15.921, dengan Pertumbuhan kinerja Harga sebesar 18%. Download artikel selengkapnya(446.28 Kb)

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Danareksa Equity Snapshot - UNTR 26 Mei 2017
May 26, 2017 09:37 WIB

United Tractors

The mining sector supported Komatsu sales


Against a backdrop of firm coal prices, Komatsu sales rose to 339 units in April 2017 (+8.3% mom, +78.4% yoy). Hence, on a cumulative basis, Komatsu sales jumped 72.1% yoy to 1,186 units in 4M17 with a significant surge in sales to the mining sector. The 4M17 sales figure is 43.9% of our full year forecast – better than expected. We forecast strong earnings growth this year as coal prices continue to consolidate. Maintain BUY with a Target Price of Rp30,000 (based on DCF valuation).

Solid Komatsu sales to the mining sector. The solid Komatsu sales in 4M17 of 1,186 units (+72.1% yoy) owed largely to the firm coal prices. This was reflected in the 283.0% yoy jump in Komatsu sales to the mining sector.  Similarly, sales to the forestry and agri sectors also posted large increases: up 93.2% yoy and 63.9% yoy, respectively. By contrast, Komatsu sales to the construction sector were depressed: down 19.1% yoy - partly due to the high base in 2015.

Higher earnings from the construction machinery division.  While the recent consolidation in coal prices may affect Komatsu sales in 2H17, we nonetheless expect the performance of the construction machinery (CM) division to remain strong given: a) higher Komatsu sales volume (+23.8% yoy), b) a greater share of larger machinery in the product mix which will further increase ASP in 2017 (we conservatively expect Komatsu ASP to increase by 4.6% yoy in 2017), and c) better earnings from Scania and UD Trucks as well as from parts and services.

Sustained earnings from the mining contracting division. Coal production under Pamapersada Nusantara (PAMA) rose 4.6% yoy to 34.0mn tonnes in 4M17 with a flattish stripping ratio of 6.8x in 4M17. This year, we expect earnings from the mining contracting (MC) division to be sustained given: a) 5% yoy higher coal production and a higher stripping ratio and b) further negotiations on mining fees which will lead to better profitability.

Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec	2015A	2016A	2017F	2018F	2019F
Revenue, (IDRbn)	49,347	45,539	54,146	60,576	65,391
EBITDA, (IDRbn)	12,403	9,150	12,423	14,169	15,446
EBITDA Growth, (%)	5.0	(26.2)	35.8	14.0	9.0
Net profit (IDRbn)	3,853	5,002	6,468	7,242	8,231
EPS (IDR)	1,033.1	1,341.0	1,734.1	1,941.5	2,206.5
EPS growth (%)	(28.1)	29.8	29.3	12.0	13.7
BVPS, (IDR)	10,165.8	10,954.0	12,077.6	13,328.4	14,718.4
DPS, (IDR)	527.1	449.6	582.5	717.9	807.8
PER (x)	23.3	18.0	13.9	12.4	10.9
PBV (x)	2.5	2.3	2.1	1.9	1.7
Dividend yield (%)	1.7	2.2	2.9	3.2	3.7
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.0	9.5	7.0	6.1	5.6
Source : UNTR, Danareksa Estimates

Maintain BUY with a Target Price of Rp30,000 based on DCF valuation (WACC of 12.4% and terminal growth of 3%) supported by stable coal prices which will help to boost the company’s performance. The downside risks are: a) a sharp decline in coal prices, b) tighter competition in the heavy equipment business and c) a strong IDR/USD. Our Target Price implies 17.3x 2017F PE.

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