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TOWR - Slow quarter, but maintain optimism
May 22, 2015 09:36 WIB

Sarana Menara Nusantara (SMN) reported a weak 1Q15 result with EBITDA inched up by just 1% QoQ to IDR890bn while revenue increased by a mere 4% QoQ to IDR1.1tn. The result came below our estimate with EBITDA came at just 22% of our FY15F estimate. The company’s newly issued FY15 guidance is also below our estimate with revenue of IDR4.3tn-IDR4.6tn and EBITDA of IDR3.6tn-IDR3.8tn. We cut our revenue estimate for FY15F and FY16F by 5%-7% and EBITDA forecast by 4%-6%. Nevertheless, SMN continued to exhibit strong pricing power despite competition, with average revenue per tenant inched up by 3% QoQ in 1Q15to IDR17.5mn per month. We believe this will allow the company to defend its EBITDA margin at above 82% in FY15F and FY16F, and above 80% for longer, contrary to our initial expectation. All in, we maintain BUY on the stock with a slightly higher TP of IDR4,625 at which the stock is valued at FY15-16F EV/EBITDA of 14.2x and 11.8x. Read More

Trade Outlook

April 2015 Inflation Outlook
April 30, 2015 09:08 WIB

Following deflation in two consecutive months, the prices of goods and services rose again in March. On a MoM basis, headline inflation reached 0.17 percent. This translated into YoY inflation of 6.38 percent.
On a monthly comparison, prices in the food components declined by 0.13 percent, while prices in the non food components rose 0.40 percent.

Prices in the foodstuffs component were dragged down 0.73 percent MoM as a result of the harvesting season in several producing areas while prices in the clothing component declined more moderately by 0.08 percent MoM. By contrast, prices rose the most in the transportation component (+0.77 percent), followed by the medical care component (+0.64 percent), the prepared foods component (+0.61 percent), the housing component (+0.29 percent), and the education component (+0.10 percent MoM).

In March, fuel prices were hiked on two separate occasions. In the first increase on March 1, 2015, the price of premium fuel was raised by 3.0 percent to IDR 6,800/liter, while the prices of diesel fuel and kerosene were kept unchanged. Later, as a result of the persistent rupiah depreciation, the government again chose to raise fuel prices further at the end of the month. On this occasion, the prices of premium and diesel fuel were increased by 7.3 percent on average to IDR 7,300/liter and IDR 6,900/liter, respectively. Besides this, the retail prices of nonsubsidized LPG were also raised again (following a 3.9 percent hike in early March, the price of LPG in 12kg canisters was raised 6 percent to IDR 142,000). Although the impact of the fuel and LPG price increases will be reflected in April’s inflation figures, we believe that inflationary pressures will remain benign, largely thanks to stable food prices (due to the impact of the harvesting season). Nonetheless, we don’t foresee deflation in April (unlike in April 2014 when there was MoM deflation of 0.02 percent).

We predict inflation in April 2015 of 0.38 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 6.81 percent.

At BI’s latest meeting, the benchmark BI rate was kept unchanged at 7.50 percent, with the Deposit Facility rate and the Lending Facility rate unchanged at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. It appears that the central bank has continued to adopt a relatively tight monetary policy stance given its aim of trying to bring about a healthier current account (at 2.5-3.0 percent of GDP). On the back of weaker demand for imports - which has outpaced the decline in exports – the country recorded a larger trade surplus in the first quarter of the year. In this period, Indonesia’s trade surplus reached US$ 2.54 bn, or twice that in the corresponding period of 2014 when a surplus of US$ 1.07 bn was recorded. Going forward, we still believe there is room for further cuts in the BI rate given the benign outlook for inflation over the near-term.

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CPI & SBI Outlook

Inflation Outlook March 2015
March 27, 2015 09:26 WIB

Inline with our earlier projection, the headline inflation rate fell further in February 2015. On a MoM comparison, the CPI showed higher deflation of 0.36 percent MoM, or translating into YoY inflation of 6.29 percent. By component, the food and non-food components declined by 0.61 percent and 0.22 percent, respectively.

Prices rose in all CPI components except the foodstuffs and transportation component. In the foodstuffs component, prices fell 1.47 percent due to the start of the harvesting season while in the transportation component prices fell 1.53 percent MoM, largely driven by the impact of the government’s move to cut retail prices of fuel in January. By contrast, prices in the clothing component rose the most (up 0.52 percent), followed by the prepared foods component (+0.45 percent MoM), the housing component (+0.41 percent MoM), the medical care component (+0.39 percent MoM), and the education component (+0.14 percent MoM).

In March, seasonality from the harvesting season will result in downward pressures on prices in the foodstuffs component. The harvesting of crops (especially those grown in paddy fields) will drive rice prices down. March average rice prices remain above the February average level, but shows a declining trend. From the production side, the government targets 73.4 million tons of milled dry grain rice production in 2015, or 3.7 percent higher than last year’s production.

The price of several commodities tend to increase such as red onions, cooking oil, and flour. At the same time, the collapse in global oil prices will help to keep domestic fuel prices stable. Hence, we predict March inflation of 0.16 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 6.38 percent.

In the latest development, Bank Indonesia maintained its benchmark BI rate at 7.50 percent, with the Deposit Facility rate and the Lending Facility rate unchanged at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. The BI’s goal of achieving a healthier current account (2.5-3.0 percent of GDP) was one of the main factors behind BI’s move to keep the BI rate at its current level. However, we continue to believe that there is still scope for further cuts in the benchmark rate given the benign outlook for inflation over the near- term

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Forecast For March 2015

Exports US$ 12.80 bn
Imports US$ 12.30 bn
Trade Balance US$ 556.50 bn

Forecast for 2015

Exports US$ 182.80 bn
Imports US$ 180.30 bn
Trade Balance US$ 2.50 bn

DRI Forecast for April 2015

MoM(%) 0.38
YoY(%) 6.81

End of period(% p.a) 7.50

Forecast for 2015

Inflation(%) 5.04
SBI(% p.a) 7.50