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Stock Shoot - GJTL
May 24, 2016 14:00 WIB

Kinerja saham GJTL cenderung menguat disertai dengan kondisi oversold atau jenuh jual. Potensi harga saham GJTL cenderung menguat disertai dengan kinerja GJTL yang telah menguji kisaran garis support pada level 700, dengan target harga selanjutnya pada kisaran 880 hingga 900 sebagai target tertinggi. Kinerja saham GJTL berada dalam momentum positif, disertaikondisi up trend.

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Trade Outlook

Trade Outlook Mei 2016
May 12, 2016 09:30 WIB

March’s trade surplus narrowed to US$ 497 mn from US$ 1.1 bn in February 2016, reflecting both slowing exports growth and faster imports growth. Exports reached US$ 11.7 bn (+4.3% mom, -13.5% yoy), exceeding imports of US$ 11.3 bn (+11.0% mom, -10.4% yoy). Non oil and gas trade remained in surplus (US$ 797.7 mn),offsetting the US$ 300.7 mn oil and gas trade deficit. Year-to-date, Indonesia has posted a US$ 1.6 bn trade surplus, albeit lower than last year’s surplus of US$ 2.3 bn.

Exports volume rose 11.1% mom while average prices, by contrast, fell 6.2% mom. Looking at the top non oil and gas products, the exports of animal or vegetables fats (HS 15) and jewelry (HS 71) fell, while exports of mineral fuel (HS 27) still grew. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to China (+6.9% mom) and the U.S. (+9.2% mom) rose, while they fell to Japan (-3.8% mom).

For imports, higher imports value owed to increasing volume shipments (+11.1% mom). Average prices were flat (-0.1% mom). For the non oil and gas imports, imports of mechanical machines/tools (HS 84), electrical machines/tools (HS 85), and plastic (HS 39) rose by 5.9%, 7.6%, and 16%, respectively. By country of origin,
imports of non oil and gas products from China were down by 6.2% mom. By contrast, imports from Japan (+5.5% mom) and Thailand (+7.8% mom) posted increases. Imports from China and Japan accounted for the largest share of Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports at 25.4% and 10.7%, respectively.

By classification of use, imports of capital goods and consumption goods declined by 5.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. By contrast, imports of raw materials climbed 16.9 percent mom.

The latest economic data reveals that the economy of one of Indonesia’s largest trading partners - the U.S. - grew at a moderate pace, while the performance of the economies of China and Japan were less impressive. Global demand is predicted to remain soft. On a more positive view, the average prices of Indonesia’s major
commodity exports strengthened (+2.5% mom) with global oil prices rebounding (+21.1% mom). As such, Indonesia’s exports value is likely to head higher going forward.

The U.S. economy reportedly grew by 2.0% yoy in Q1 2016, slower than in Q1 2015 (+2.9% yoy) but the same as in Q4 2015. In more detail, growth weakened in personal consumption expenditures - PCE (+2.7% yoy), exports (+0.3% yoy), and imports (+1.2% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted (-0.1 % yoy) and government expenditures expanded (+1.4% yoy). The U.S. CEI and LEI indicate improving conditions. For manufacturing, the latest composite PMI (PMI=50.8) declined in April, indicating softer industrial activity. On the consumer side, the strong labor market and income conditions kept households confidence buoyant. Given the only moderate pace of economic recovery, the Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 – 0.50 percent.

The latest economic data suggests that China’s economy is gradually recovering on the back of improvements in investment and domestic demand. The CEI and LEI have rebounded in the last several months, indicating potential economic expansion in the 6-12 months ahead. On the manufacturing side, the official PMI fell slightly to 50.1, yet remaining above the threshold level, as production and new orders decreased in April. On the domestic demand front, robust household consumption was reflected in strong retail sales growth. In March, retail sales edged up 0.85 percent mom (+10.5% yoy).

The Japanese economy isn’t showing a significant improvement. The CEI growth is flat, while the LEI growth contracted, suggesting a slowing recovery in the Japanese economy. A strengthening yen continues to weigh on exports and industrial activity. Japan’s PMI dipped to 48.2 in April from 49.1 in the previous month, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing. New export orders and production both declined. In regard to flat economic performance and weaker manufacturing activity, the Bank of Japan’s decision to not expand its monetary stimulus came as a surprise. On the domestic demand front, March’s retail sales were still weak (+1.4% mom, -1.1% yoy) and consumer prices remained subdued (+0.1% mom, -0.1% yoy). Food prices eased while transportation and housing costs declined further.

In Indonesia, the latest CEI and LEI suggest that economic activity improved further. In Q1 2016, Indonesia’s GDP grew by 4.92 percent yoy, faster than in Q1 2015 (+ 4.73% yoy) sustained by firm domestic demand and investment. On the expenditures side, households consumption (+4.94% yoy), gross fixed capital formation (+5.57% yoy), and government consumption (+2.93% yoy) expanded, while exports contracted (-3.88% yoy). Of the top 5 sectors, manufacturing sector growth reached 4.59% yoy, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector +1.85% yoy, the wholesales and retail trade sector +4.04% yoy, and the construction sector (+7.87% yoy. The mining & quarrying sector, however, still contracted (-0.66% yoy). On the monetary side, Bank Indonesia left its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.75 percent, with the Lending Facility and the Deposit Facility rate stayed at 7.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively. Stable inflation, lower interest rates, and brighter economic prospects boosted the average USD/IDR rate (+0.15% mom). Meanwhile, stronger consumer and business sentiment suggest brisker economic activities, which, in turn, would lead to higher imports.

In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 11.5 bn in April 2016, with imports reaching US$ 11.9 bn. This will translate into a trade deficit of US$ 436.8 mn in April 2016.

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CPI & SBI Outlook

CPI & SBI Outlook March 2016
March 30, 2016 09:40 WIB

Consumer prices declined in February with deflation of 0.09 percent MoM. On a YoY comparison, headline inflation reached just 4.42 percent. By component, both the foodstuffs component (-0.04 percent MoM) and the non-foodstuffs component (-0.13 percent MoM) posted declines.

Three components of the CPI posted monthly declines in February, namely the foodstuffs, housing and transportation components, which fell by 0.58 percent, 0.45 percent, and 0.15 percent, respectively. By contrast, prices in the clothing component (+0.64 percent MoM) and prepared foods component (+0.63 percent MoM) posted higher increases, while prices in the medical care component (+0.26 percent MoM) and education component (+0.06 percent MoM) posted lower increases.

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Forecast For March 2016

Exports US$ 12.20 bn
Imports US$ 11.10 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.10 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Mar 2016

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.19
YoY(%) 4.44

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 6.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 4.50
SBI(% p.a) 6.75