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Stock Shoot - LSIP
April 29, 2016 09:49 WIB

Kinerja LSIP cenderung mengalami pelemahan, dengan target harga pada kisaran 1.565 hingga 1.500, demikian kinerja LSIP sejak awal tahun 2014 berada dalam trend pelemahan, di sertai dengan potensi LSIP tyang berada dalam kondisi jenuh beli.

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Trade Outlook

Trade Outlook April 2016
April 14, 2016 13:08 WIB

In February 2016, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$ 1.14 bn, owing to increasing monthly exports and falling imports. Exports reached US$ 11.3 bn (+7.80% mom, -7.18% yoy), while imports reached US$ 10.2 bn (-2.91% mom, - 11.71% yoy). Non oil and gas trading posted a surplus of US$ 1.14 bn, while oil and gas trade recorded a US$ 0.8 mn deficit.

Compared to the previous month, strong exports were sustained by higher average prices (+10.8% mom), mostly of non oil and gas exports (+12.3% mom). The volume shipments of total exports were still down by 2.7 percent mom, however, with the largest drop recorded by non oil and gas exports (-3.3% mom). By commodity, the top three export products were mineral fuel (HS 27), jewelry (HS 71) and footwear (HS 64). Together they accounted for 21.8 percent of the value of non oil and gas exports. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to China (+6.6% mom) and Japan (+5.3% mom) rose, while they fell to the U.S (-6.8% mom).

On the imports side, the lower total value owed to lower average prices of both oil and gas imports (-10.3% mom) and non oil and gas imports (-18.3% mom). By contrast, the shipments of imports rose by 14.2 percent mom. For the non oil and gas imports, the imports of mechanical machine/tools (HS 84) and iron/steel (HS 72) dropped by 10.4% and 7.7% mom respectively, while the imports of electrical machine/tools (HS 85) rose by 5.6% mom. By country of origin, imports of non oil and gas products from China fell (-3.3% mom). By contrast, imports from Japan (+13.2% mom) and Thailand (+24.1% mom) posted increases. Imports from China recorded the biggest share of Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports (26.6%).

All imports by classification of use posted declines. The imports of consumption goods, raw materials and capital goods declined by 13.6 percent, 1.8 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

The latest economic data suggests that the economies of Indonesia’s major trading partners –China and Japan - remained soft, while the U.S. grew at a moderate pace. Global demand is predicted to remain weak. On a more positive note, the average prices of Indonesia’s major commodity exports strengthened (+4.5% mom) with global oil prices rebounding (+11.9% mom). As such, Indonesia’s exports are likely to strengthen further going forward.

In the US, CEI and LEI growth indicate that the expansion of the U.S. economy remains slow. In the industrial sector, the latest composite PMI (PMI=51.3) rose above the threshold level in March 2016, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing activity. The latest data points toward early stabilization of new exports orders, and a rise in employment. On the consumer side, strong labor market conditions and better households confidence fueled domestic demand. Retail sales growth accelerated further and inflation picked up. Moreover, in regard to the sluggish global economic growth and the risks associated with the US economy, the Fed signaled caution and the possibility of gradual increases in the Fed Funds Rate going forward.

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CPI & SBI Outlook

CPI & SBI Outlook March 2016
March 30, 2016 09:40 WIB

Consumer prices declined in February with deflation of 0.09 percent MoM. On a YoY comparison, headline inflation reached just 4.42 percent. By component, both the foodstuffs component (-0.04 percent MoM) and the non-foodstuffs component (-0.13 percent MoM) posted declines.

Three components of the CPI posted monthly declines in February, namely the foodstuffs, housing and transportation components, which fell by 0.58 percent, 0.45 percent, and 0.15 percent, respectively. By contrast, prices in the clothing component (+0.64 percent MoM) and prepared foods component (+0.63 percent MoM) posted higher increases, while prices in the medical care component (+0.26 percent MoM) and education component (+0.06 percent MoM) posted lower increases.

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Forecast For March 2016

Exports US$ 12.20 bn
Imports US$ 11.10 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.10 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Mar 2016

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.19
YoY(%) 4.44

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 6.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 4.50
SBI(% p.a) 6.75