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Consumer Confidence February 2016
February 04, 2016 09:51 WIB

Consumer confidence rose to a fourteen-month high in January 2016 – its fourth straight monthly increase. As a result, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) now stands at 98.5, up 2.8% over the previous month, as consumer concerns over high fuel prices and fuel scarcity eased significantly (in our latest survey, only 6.5% of consumers cited this issue as a major concern in January 2016 vis-à-vis 11.6% in December 2015). In another positive development, consumer concerns over job scarcity also eased (down from 28.4% to 26.9%) while fewer consumers were worried by the prospect of drought (down from 5.7% to 4.5%).

The two main components of the CCI posted increases in January 2016. The first one – the component measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), added 2.2 percent to 78.6, as sentiment toward both the current state of the economy and the job market improved. The other component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – climbed 3.1 percent to 113.5, a reflection of stronger consumer optimism toward the overall economic outlook over the next six months.

With consumers more upbeat on the country’s overall economic outlook, buying intentions for durable goods increased further in January 2016. In our latest survey, 32.3 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months, up from 31.6 percent in the previous month. Furthermore, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are also higher, since only 31.7 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good back in January 2015.

Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties weakened in the January 2016 survey. After increasing 0.6 percent in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) edged down 1.1 percent to 92.8. This index is also lower than its level one year ago. Of the five components that make up the CCGI, only one increased, while four declined.

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Trade Outlook

Inflation Outlook July 2015: Higher Pressure during the Festivities
July 29, 2015 08:00 WIB

After rising 0.5 percent MoM in May, consumer prices posted a 0.54 percent increase in June. On a YoY basis, headline inflation edged up to 7.26 percent from 7.15 percent. Prices rose more briskly in the food components (+1.12 percent MoM), whereas prices in the non food components were relatively more stable (+0.18 percent MoM). The June inflation figure was lower than our projection of 0.62 percent MoM and also below the median market consensus of 0.65 percent MoM. ?? In June, prices in the foodstuffs component rose significantly (+1.60 percent MoM). By comparison, prices in the other components did not increase so much. On a monthly basis, the prepared foods component rose by 0.54 percent, followed by the medical care component (+0.32 percent), the clothing component (+0.28 percent), the housing component (+0.23 percent), the transportation component (+0.11 percent), and the education component (+0.07 percent).

Looking at the supply side, BPS has forecast lower production of some crops in the May-August period when compared to production during the peak harvesting season (January-April). In the May-August 2015 period, the production of dry milled grain and corn are predicted to reach 24.9 mn tons (-24.3 percent) and 6.2 mn tons (-35.1 percent), respectively. However, the output of dried soybeans is expected to rise 33.6 percent to 328 thousand tons. For these crops, full year production is projected to show an increase, boosted by a larger harvesting area and improved productivity.

In July, seasonal factors related to the fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri are predicted to lift consumer prices. Strong demand during Idul Fitri (especially for basic foodstuffs, prepared foods, and clothing) will keep prices high compared to the previous month. Moreover, as residents of urban areas travel back to their hometowns, transportation costs and spending will also go up. We predict inflation in July 2015 of 0.82 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 7.14 percent.

The benchmark rate was kept at its current level of 7.50 percent, with the Deposit Facility rate and the Lending Facility rate also kept unchanged at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Given the heightened inflationary pressures over the near term and the central bank’s goal of keeping the current account deficit in check, we see that the BI rate is likely to be maintained at its current level over the short term.

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CPI & SBI Outlook

CPI & SBI Outlook January 2016
January 27, 2016 10:05 WIB

In December 2015, inflation reached 0.96 percent on a monthly comparison. This translated into 3.35 percent on an annual basis. By component, inflation was highest in the foodstuffs component at 1.97 percent MoM, while the nonfoodstuffs component posted a more moderate increase of 0.33 percent MoM. ?? Seasonal factors (the beginning of the planting season and the year-end holidays) created additional inflationary pressures in December. All 7 components of the CPI posted increases in December. The foodstuffs and prepared foods components rose the most: up by 3.20 percent and 0.50 percent, respectively. Among the other components, the transportation component climbed 0.45 percent, followed by the housing component (+0.40 percent MoM), the medical care component (+0.24 percent MoM), the clothing component (+0.09 percent MoM), and the education component (+0.06 percent MoM).

In early 2016, the government announced new electricity tariffs and cut the prices of several fuel products. Non-subsidized electricity tariffs were reduced by around 8 percent (weighted average). Moreover, in response to the slump in global crude oil prices, the government also cut the retail prices of several fuel products (by between 1.7 and 15.7 percent) and lowered the price of nonsubsidized LPG (by around 4.4 percent). 

In January 2016, the monthly inflation rate will remain high due to seasonal factors. However, we believe that the inflationary pressures may be less than usual (typically monthly inflation is around 1 percent in January). But the prices of basic foodstuffs are still likely to post significant increases due to tighter supply. By contrast, although the government’s recent cuts in fuel prices will help to dampen inflationary pressures, transportation costs may not change much over the short term.

For January 2016, we forecast inflation of 0.68 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 4.30 percent. ??

At its latest meeting, Bank Indonesia lowered the BI rate to 7.25 percent, with the Lending Facility and the Deposit Facility rate cut to 7.75 percent and 5.25 percent, respectively. This policy takes into consideration the stable outlook for inflation over the near term, possibly weak economic growth, and expectations of a more manageable CAD. In February 2016, we don’t expect BI to lower rates further since: 1) the trade deficit may widen the Q4 2015 CAD, 2) the monthly inflation rate will be higher in January 2016, and 3) rupiah volatility remains high.

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Forecast For December 2015

Exports US$ 11.80 bn
Imports US$ 11.90 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.09 bn


Forecast for 2015

Exports US$ 150.20 bn
Imports US$ 142.50 bn
Trade Balance US$ 7.70 bn

DRI Forecast for Jan 2016

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.68
YoY(%) 4.30

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 7.50

Forecast for 2015

Inflation(%) 4.50
SBI(% p.a) 6.75