December 03, 2013 15:07 WIB
Consumer Confidence December 2013
Still Trending Higher
Consumer Confidence strengthened for a fourth straight month in November. After climbing 1.8 percent in the previous survey, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose 1.2 percent to a seven-month high of 92.3. The stronger consumer confidence in November owes largely to more positive assessments on the prospects for the economy, but also to easing concerns over rising foodstuff prices. In the latest survey, 71.8 percent of consumers cited rising foodstuff prices as a major concern, down from 76.5 percent in October. At the same time, consumers are also coming to terms with the more expensive fuel prices: only 18.7% of consumers mentioned high fuel prices as a problem in November, well down from 26.9% in October.
The two main components of the CCI both increased in November 2013. The first one – the one measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), climbed 2.4 percent to 74.2 as consumers gave more positive assessments on the state of the economy and the current job market. The other component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – also made gains, climbing 0.6 percent to a ten-month high of 105.9. The increase in the EI reflects hopes that the national economy will improve over the next six months.
With consumers more upbeat on the country’s economic prospects, buying intentions for durable goods increased in November. In the latest survey, some 31.6 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months. This is more than in the previous month - when some 30.4 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good. Nevertheless, on a year-on-year comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are still lower than they were a year ago.
Consumer confidence in the government’s ability to carry out its duties strengthened in the latest survey. After falling in two consecutive surveys, the Consumer Confidence in the Government Index (CCGI) climbed 1.2 percent to 78.6 in November. In the latest survey, three components that make up the CCGI posted increases while the other two components still posted declines.
November 28, 2013 11:06 WIB
Early Economic Indicators November 2013
The Latest Economic Conditions:
Indonesian economic activities were weaker in September 2013:
The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) fell slightly in September, signaling slightly weaker economic activity in September than in August.
Nevertheless, the level of CEI in September 2013 is still higher than its level a year ago. This means that the Indonesian economy is still continuing to expand.
Although retail sales, car sales and money supply growth decreased in September, cement consumption and import still increased.
The Indonesian economy will continue to expand in 2013, but at a slower growth rate than previously expected :
The Leading Economic Index (CEI) rose further in September. This provides strong evidence that the LEI is firmly on an increasing trend. Hence, the economy will continue to expand in the near future, albeit at a slower growth rate.
The Sequential Signaling Method employed suggests that the Indonesian economy reached its nadir in March 2009 and that it is now firmly in the expansionary phase of its business cycle.
All in all, we believe that the Indonesian economy will continue to expand in the near future, but at a slower growth rate than previously expected. Our forecast is for 5.68 percent economic growth in 2013, or lower than the 6.2 percent growth pace in 2012.
November 27, 2013 14:17 WIB
CPI & SBI Outlook November 2013
November 2013 Inflation Outlook: Continue to Ease
In October, headline inflation eased. As predicted earlier, the MoM inflation rate reached only 0.09 percent. This translates into YoY inflation of 8.32 percent. Hence, cumulatively in the first 10 months of the year, inflation stood at 7.66 percent. By component, the food component recorded deflation of 0.13 percent MoM, while the non food component saw price increases of 0.25 percent MoM.
Two CPI components posted declines on a MoM basis: the foodstuffs component fell 0.62 percent and the clothing component dipped 0.56 percent. The other five components, however, posted increases. The prepared foods component rose the most (+0.55 percent MoM), followed by the transportation component (+0.53 percent MoM), the medical care component (+0.33 percent MoM), the education component (+0.31 percent MoM), and the housing component (+0.26 percent MoM).
The deflation in the foodstuffs component was in line with our expectations, reflecting easing pressure on the prices of chicken meat, eggs, onions and tomatoes. Prices in the education component also reverted to normal following the commencement of the new academic year. Our October inflation forecast of 0.09 percent MoM/8.32 percent YoY was accurate to the last figure.
Given the absence of seasonal factors in November, we believe that prices in the food components (chicken meat, sugar, chili) are expected to remain ease, while the prices in the non food components (gold and jewelry) are expected to decline.
Against this backdrop, November’s inflation figure is expected to be lower than October’s figure. We predict deflation of 0.02 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 8.22 percent in November 2013.
At the latest meeting of the Board of Governors of Bank
|Exports||US$ 15.65 bn|
|Imports||US$ 15.58 bn|
|Trade Balance||US$ 63.20 bn|
Forecast for 2013
|Exports||US$ 214.00 bn|
|Imports||US$ 211.00 bn|
|Trade Balance||US$ 3.10 bn|
|End of period(% p.a)||5.75|
Forecast for 2013
- Consumer Confidence Juni 2013
- Consumer Confidence Mei 2013
- Consumer Confidence April 2013
- Consumer Confidence Mar 2013
- Consumer Confidence Feb 2013
- E A R L Y E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Agustus
- Trade Outlook Mei 2013
- Trade Outlook April 2013
- Trade Outlook Mar 2013
- Trade Outlook Feb 2013
CPI & SBI Outlook
- CPI & SBI Outlook Mar 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook Feb 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook Jan 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook Nov 2012
- CPI & SBI Outlook Okt 2012