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Stock Shoot - GIAA
December 01, 2016 07:44 WIB

Potensi saham GIAA cenderung menguat untuk menguji target harga psikologis pada kisaran 500 mendatang, dimana target tersebut merupakan level resistance pertama saham GIAA dengan target tertinggi pada kisaran 555 sebagai harga tertinggi selama 52 Minggu sebelumnya. Potensi tersebut disertai dengan kinerja saham GIAA yang berada dalam fase akumulasi dalam jangka pendek hingga menengah.
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Trade Outlook

Business Sentiment Survey Aug 2016
August 04, 2016 15:05 WIB

Business sentiment weakened in our latest survey, snapping its firm uptrend which had begun in August- eptember 2015. In our April-May 2016 survey, the Business Sentiment Index (BSI) dropped 8.5 percent to a level of 122.2.

Nonetheless, the decline in the BSI does not yet constitute a break from its strong upward trend seen this year. Indeed, catalysts such as the government’s groundbreaking tax amnesty ruling and expected recovery in domestic consumption in the second half of the year could quickly help restore the BSI’s upward momentum.

CEOs continued to claim that corporate performance remained fairly sluggish. Most notably, the index measuring sentiment toward sales growth dropped a further 6.3 percent to 94.8. And at the bottom line, profits growth was similarly anemic (this index sank 6.6 percent to 93.6), constricted by high operating costs.

Looking forward, CEOs were less sanguine on Indonesia’s economic outlook over the next six months. As a result, only 38.6 percent of CEOs are now upbeat on the economy, down from 47.6 percent in the previous survey.

More encouragingly, business confidence toward the government improved further. In our survey, the Business Confidence in the Government Index (BCGI) eked out a small 1.9 percent gain to 141.0. 

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CPI & SBI Outlook

CPI & SBI Outlook August 2016
August 30, 2016 14:31 WIB

Inflation jumped again in July. In this month, consumer prices climbed 0.69 percent mom, after the 0.66 percent increase in June. Compared to July 2015, headline inflation reached 3.21 percent. Prices in both the foodstuffs and non-foodstuffs components continued to rise (+0.86 percent MoM and +0.60 percent MoM, respectively). The greater pressure on prices stemmed from the impact of the Idul Fitri festivities and the start of the new academic year. ?

All CPI components rose on a monthly basis. Prices in the transportation component increased the most (+1.22% mom), since many urban residents travel back to their hometowns during Lebaran. Prices also increased in the foodstuffs component (+1.12% mom), the prepared foods component (+0.54% mom), the education component (+0.51% mom), the clothing component (+0.44% mom), the medical care component (+0.37% mom), and the housing component (+0.24% mom).

For August, we predict milder inflation as the seasonal impact from the fasting month ends. As such, prices in the foodstuffs, prepared foods, clothing and transportation components will return to normal. Nonetheless, the new school year - which begins in the July-September period – will intensify pressures in the education component.

For August 2016, we forecast inflation of 0.06 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 2.87 percent. ?

Bank Indonesia now uses the BI 7-Day RR Rate as its new policy rate to replace the BI Rate. At the central bank’s latest meeting, the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7-Day RR Rate) was kept unchanged at 5.25 percent. Meanwhile, the Deposit Facility rate was unchanged at 4.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate cut by 100 bps to 6.00 percent. Amid the sluggish global economic recovery, we expect domestic inflation to remain benign, the rupiah to stay stable, and with a more manageable current account deficit over the short-term. As such, BI still appears to have room to lower its benchmark interest rate, a move which would help to give a boost to domestic demand.

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Forecast For Aug 2016

Exports US$ 10.40 bn
Imports US$ 10.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.25 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Aug 2016

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.06
YoY(%) 2.87

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 5.25

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 3.82
SBI(% p.a) 4.75