March 04, 2014 16:33 WIB
Consumer Confidence Maret 2014
Consumer Confidence weakened in February 2014, as flood in several parts of the country weighed on urban consumers, most notably those in Jakarta and Central Java. After climbing for six-straight surveys, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell 2.3 percent to 91.9. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to believe that consumer confidence will continue to remain strong, especially since flood is a temporary condition. Hence, the longer-term upward trend of the CCI appears intact.
The two main components of the CCI both declined in February. The first one – the one measuring consumer sentiment toward current conditions, the Present Situations Index (PSI), retreated 1.4 percent to 74.6 as consumers gave more negative assessments on the state of the economy and the current job market. The other component of the CCI - the one measuring consumer sentiment toward the future (the Expectations Index or EI) – also declined, falling 2.7 percent to 104.9. The fall in the EI reflects heightened concerns on how the economy will perform over the next six months.
Although consumers were less upbeat on the country’s economic prospects, buying intentions for durable goods actually increased in February 2014. In the latest survey, some 35.2 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good over the next six months. This is more than in the previous month - when some 30.2 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good. However, on a yearly comparison, buying intentions for durable goods are still lower since 36.5 percent of consumers expressed plans to purchase a durable good in February 2013.
February 28, 2014 12:18 WIB
Trade Outlook Februari 2014
Indonesia’s trading performance is continuing to improve with a higher trade surplus recorded in three straight months. In December 2013, exports were buoyant at US$ 16.9 bn (+6.6 percent MoM). Hence, with imports of US$ 15.5 bn (+2.0 percent MoM), the trade surplus improved to US$ 1.5 bn. For the full year of 2013, however, Indonesia still recorded a trade deficit of US$ 4.06 bn.
On a MoM basis, Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to China rose by 6.8 percent in December 2013. Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to Japan and the US also rose: up 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively. On the imports side, Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports from Japan rose 3.7 percent MoM. In contrast, however, Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports from China and Thailand declined by 8.3 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively.
We expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 15.3 bn in January 2014, or lower than December 2013’s US$ 16.9 bn. As for imports, we expect them to decline to US$ 14.6 bn in January from US$ 15.5 bn in December. As a result, we expect a trade surplus of US$ 750.4 mn in January 2014.
January 27, 2014 15:34 WIB
CPI & SBI Outlook Januari 2014
January 2014 Inflation Outlook: To Increase Significantly
MoM inflation reached 0.55 percent in December 2013, translating into YoY inflation of 8.38 percent. By component, the food component recorded inflation of 0.76 percent MoM, while the non food component
climbed 0.38 percent MoM.
All components of the CPI posted increases. In particular, the gains in the foodstuffs and clothing components contributed to the high headline inflation figure. Prices rose most in the foodstuffs component (+0.79 percent MoM), followed by the prepared foods component (+0.73 percent), the transportation component (+0.56 percent MoM), the housing component (+0.44 percent MoM), the clothing component (+0.17 percent MoM), the medical care component (+0.16 percent MoM), and the education component (+0.06 percent MoM).
The higher inflation in December owed to the seasonal impact from Christmas and the New Year holiday season. Strong demand for foodstuffs and prepared foods, coupled with the new planting season, pushed up prices.
In January, we believe that prices of basic foodstuffs will record significant increases. The new planting season and tightening of supply will keep prices high. Furthermore, heavy rains in some areas, which led to severe flooding and disrupted land transportation, hampered the distribution of some goods. For January 2014, we predict inflation of 0.88 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 8.22 percent.
In early January 2014, Bank Indonesia decided to maintain its benchmark BI rate at 7.5 percent, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. The benchmark BI rate has been kept at its current level for three consecutive months in light of easing inflationary pressures and improvements in the trade balance. Given the stable outlook for inflation over the near term, we remain confident that the BI rate will be kept at its current level.
In the latest developments, the Central Bureau of Statistics will set the new base year for measuring Indonesia’s CPI (2012=100). The new calculation will be based on the 2012 Living Cost Survey, which reduces the weighting for the food component (down from 36.12 percent to 35.04 percent) and increases the weighting for the non food component (up from 63.88 percent to 64.96 percent). According to our calculation, the new base year for CPI, will result of -0.1 percent to 2013 inflation.
|Exports||US$ 15.30 bn|
|Imports||US$ 14.60 bn|
|Trade Balance||US$ 750.40 bn|
Forecast for 2014
|Exports||US$ 196.40 bn|
|Imports||US$ 192.30 bn|
|Trade Balance||US$ 4.10 bn|
|End of period(% p.a)||7.50|
Forecast for 2014
- Consumer Confidence December 2013
- Consumer Confidence November 2013
- Consumer Confidence Juli 2013
- Consumer Confidence Juni 2013
- Consumer Confidence Mei 2013
- Early Economic Indicators November 2013
- Trade Outlook November 2013
- Trade Outlook October2013
- E A R L Y E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Agustus
- Trade Outlook Mei 2013
CPI & SBI Outlook
- CPI & SBI Outlook Mei 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook April 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook Mar 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook Feb 2013
- CPI & SBI Outlook Jan 2013