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Stock Shoot - UNVR
July 28, 2016 08:44 WIB

Potensi kinerja shama UNVR cenderung menguat untuk menguji level tertinggi pada level 47.800 sebagai target tertinggi selama 52 Minggu sebelumnya. Potensi menguatnya UNVR disertai dengan kinerja harga UNVR yang berada diatas rata rata kinerja selama 50 hari dan 20 hari sebelumnya. Potensi menguatnya saham UNVR disertai dengan kinerja harga UNVR yang berada dalam kondisi uptrend dengan target tertinggi pada kisaran 49.000 hingga 50.000 sebagai angka psikologis.
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Trade Outlook

Trade Outlook Mei 2016
May 12, 2016 09:30 WIB

March’s trade surplus narrowed to US$ 497 mn from US$ 1.1 bn in February 2016, reflecting both slowing exports growth and faster imports growth. Exports reached US$ 11.7 bn (+4.3% mom, -13.5% yoy), exceeding imports of US$ 11.3 bn (+11.0% mom, -10.4% yoy). Non oil and gas trade remained in surplus (US$ 797.7 mn),offsetting the US$ 300.7 mn oil and gas trade deficit. Year-to-date, Indonesia has posted a US$ 1.6 bn trade surplus, albeit lower than last year’s surplus of US$ 2.3 bn.

Exports volume rose 11.1% mom while average prices, by contrast, fell 6.2% mom. Looking at the top non oil and gas products, the exports of animal or vegetables fats (HS 15) and jewelry (HS 71) fell, while exports of mineral fuel (HS 27) still grew. By destination country, the value of non oil and gas exports to China (+6.9% mom) and the U.S. (+9.2% mom) rose, while they fell to Japan (-3.8% mom).

For imports, higher imports value owed to increasing volume shipments (+11.1% mom). Average prices were flat (-0.1% mom). For the non oil and gas imports, imports of mechanical machines/tools (HS 84), electrical machines/tools (HS 85), and plastic (HS 39) rose by 5.9%, 7.6%, and 16%, respectively. By country of origin,
imports of non oil and gas products from China were down by 6.2% mom. By contrast, imports from Japan (+5.5% mom) and Thailand (+7.8% mom) posted increases. Imports from China and Japan accounted for the largest share of Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports at 25.4% and 10.7%, respectively.

By classification of use, imports of capital goods and consumption goods declined by 5.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. By contrast, imports of raw materials climbed 16.9 percent mom.

The latest economic data reveals that the economy of one of Indonesia’s largest trading partners - the U.S. - grew at a moderate pace, while the performance of the economies of China and Japan were less impressive. Global demand is predicted to remain soft. On a more positive view, the average prices of Indonesia’s major
commodity exports strengthened (+2.5% mom) with global oil prices rebounding (+21.1% mom). As such, Indonesia’s exports value is likely to head higher going forward.

The U.S. economy reportedly grew by 2.0% yoy in Q1 2016, slower than in Q1 2015 (+2.9% yoy) but the same as in Q4 2015. In more detail, growth weakened in personal consumption expenditures - PCE (+2.7% yoy), exports (+0.3% yoy), and imports (+1.2% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted (-0.1 % yoy) and government expenditures expanded (+1.4% yoy). The U.S. CEI and LEI indicate improving conditions. For manufacturing, the latest composite PMI (PMI=50.8) declined in April, indicating softer industrial activity. On the consumer side, the strong labor market and income conditions kept households confidence buoyant. Given the only moderate pace of economic recovery, the Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 – 0.50 percent.

The latest economic data suggests that China’s economy is gradually recovering on the back of improvements in investment and domestic demand. The CEI and LEI have rebounded in the last several months, indicating potential economic expansion in the 6-12 months ahead. On the manufacturing side, the official PMI fell slightly to 50.1, yet remaining above the threshold level, as production and new orders decreased in April. On the domestic demand front, robust household consumption was reflected in strong retail sales growth. In March, retail sales edged up 0.85 percent mom (+10.5% yoy).

The Japanese economy isn’t showing a significant improvement. The CEI growth is flat, while the LEI growth contracted, suggesting a slowing recovery in the Japanese economy. A strengthening yen continues to weigh on exports and industrial activity. Japan’s PMI dipped to 48.2 in April from 49.1 in the previous month, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing. New export orders and production both declined. In regard to flat economic performance and weaker manufacturing activity, the Bank of Japan’s decision to not expand its monetary stimulus came as a surprise. On the domestic demand front, March’s retail sales were still weak (+1.4% mom, -1.1% yoy) and consumer prices remained subdued (+0.1% mom, -0.1% yoy). Food prices eased while transportation and housing costs declined further.

In Indonesia, the latest CEI and LEI suggest that economic activity improved further. In Q1 2016, Indonesia’s GDP grew by 4.92 percent yoy, faster than in Q1 2015 (+ 4.73% yoy) sustained by firm domestic demand and investment. On the expenditures side, households consumption (+4.94% yoy), gross fixed capital formation (+5.57% yoy), and government consumption (+2.93% yoy) expanded, while exports contracted (-3.88% yoy). Of the top 5 sectors, manufacturing sector growth reached 4.59% yoy, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector +1.85% yoy, the wholesales and retail trade sector +4.04% yoy, and the construction sector (+7.87% yoy. The mining & quarrying sector, however, still contracted (-0.66% yoy). On the monetary side, Bank Indonesia left its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.75 percent, with the Lending Facility and the Deposit Facility rate stayed at 7.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively. Stable inflation, lower interest rates, and brighter economic prospects boosted the average USD/IDR rate (+0.15% mom). Meanwhile, stronger consumer and business sentiment suggest brisker economic activities, which, in turn, would lead to higher imports.

In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 11.5 bn in April 2016, with imports reaching US$ 11.9 bn. This will translate into a trade deficit of US$ 436.8 mn in April 2016.

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CPI & SBI Outlook

CPI & SBI Outlook June 2016
June 30, 2016 09:21 WIB

Consumer prices picked up in May 2016. On a monthly comparison, the headline inflation rate reached 0.24 percent following the deflation of 0.45 percent in April. On an annual basis, however, the inflation rate eased to 3.33 percent yoy. By component, prices in both the foodstuffs component (+0.43 percent MoM) and the non- oodstuffs component (+0.14 percent MoM) rose. The rising inflationary pressures mainly owed to the end of the harvesting season and the approach of Ramadan.

All of the CPI components posted increases. The prepared foods component increased the most (+0.58% mom), followed by the clothing component (+0.44% mom), and the foodstuffs component (+0.30% mom). The medical care component (+0.27% mom) and the transportation component (+0.21% mom) also edged higher, while the education component (+0.03% mom) and the housing component (+0.02% mom) were relatively stable.

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Forecast For Apr 2016

Exports US$ 11.50 bn
Imports US$ 11.90 bn
Trade Balance US$ 0.40 bn


Forecast for 2016

Exports US$ 148.50 bn
Imports US$ 147.20 bn
Trade Balance US$ 1.30 bn

DRI Forecast for Mar 2016

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.19
YoY(%) 4.44

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 6.75

Forecast for 2016

Inflation(%) 4.50
SBI(% p.a) 6.75