- Riset Terkini
Stock Shoot - INDF
September 28, 2016 07:57 WIB
Potensi saham INDF cenderung menguat, disertai dengan kondisi saham INDF yang berada dalam momentum positif untuk menguji target tertinggi pada kisaran harga 9.700 mendatang. Sebelumnya rekomendasi beli INDF telah di publikasikan pada harga 7.070 tanggal 23 Juni 2016, dengan total pertumbuhan sebesar 29% berdasarkan harga penutupan tanggal 27 September 2016
Business Sentiment Survey Aug 2016
August 04, 2016 15:05 WIB
Business sentiment weakened in our latest survey, snapping its firm uptrend which had begun in August- eptember 2015. In our April-May 2016 survey, the Business Sentiment Index (BSI) dropped 8.5 percent to a level of 122.2.
Nonetheless, the decline in the BSI does not yet constitute a break from its strong upward trend seen this year. Indeed, catalysts such as the government’s groundbreaking tax amnesty ruling and expected recovery in domestic consumption in the second half of the year could quickly help restore the BSI’s upward momentum.
CEOs continued to claim that corporate performance remained fairly sluggish. Most notably, the index measuring sentiment toward sales growth dropped a further 6.3 percent to 94.8. And at the bottom line, profits growth was similarly anemic (this index sank 6.6 percent to 93.6), constricted by high operating costs.
Looking forward, CEOs were less sanguine on Indonesia’s economic outlook over the next six months. As a result, only 38.6 percent of CEOs are now upbeat on the economy, down from 47.6 percent in the previous survey.
More encouragingly, business confidence toward the government improved further. In our survey, the Business Confidence in the Government Index (BCGI) eked out a small 1.9 percent gain to 141.0.
CPI & SBI Outlook August 2016
August 30, 2016 14:31 WIB
Inflation jumped again in July. In this month, consumer prices climbed 0.69 percent mom, after the 0.66 percent increase in June. Compared to July 2015, headline inflation reached 3.21 percent. Prices in both the foodstuffs and non-foodstuffs components continued to rise (+0.86 percent MoM and +0.60 percent MoM, respectively). The greater pressure on prices stemmed from the impact of the Idul Fitri festivities and the start of the new academic year. ?
All CPI components rose on a monthly basis. Prices in the transportation component increased the most (+1.22% mom), since many urban residents travel back to their hometowns during Lebaran. Prices also increased in the foodstuffs component (+1.12% mom), the prepared foods component (+0.54% mom), the education component (+0.51% mom), the clothing component (+0.44% mom), the medical care component (+0.37% mom), and the housing component (+0.24% mom).
For August, we predict milder inflation as the seasonal impact from the fasting month ends. As such, prices in the foodstuffs, prepared foods, clothing and transportation components will return to normal. Nonetheless, the new school year - which begins in the July-September period – will intensify pressures in the education component.
For August 2016, we forecast inflation of 0.06 percent MoM, translating into YoY inflation of 2.87 percent. ?
Bank Indonesia now uses the BI 7-Day RR Rate as its new policy rate to replace the BI Rate. At the central bank’s latest meeting, the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7-Day RR Rate) was kept unchanged at 5.25 percent. Meanwhile, the Deposit Facility rate was unchanged at 4.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate cut by 100 bps to 6.00 percent. Amid the sluggish global economic recovery, we expect domestic inflation to remain benign, the rupiah to stay stable, and with a more manageable current account deficit over the short-term. As such, BI still appears to have room to lower its benchmark interest rate, a move which would help to give a boost to domestic demand.
|Exports||US$ 10.40 bn|
|Imports||US$ 10.20 bn|
|Trade Balance||US$ 0.25 bn|
Forecast for 2016
|Exports||US$ 148.50 bn|
|Imports||US$ 147.20 bn|
|Trade Balance||US$ 1.30 bn|
|End of period(% p.a)||5.25|
Forecast for 2016
- Inflation Outlook July 2015: Higher Pressure during the Festivities
- Trade Balance Review June 2015
- Trade Outlook July 2015
- Trade Outlook June 2015
- Inflation Outlook May 2015
CPI & SBI Outlook
- CPI & SBI Outlook January 2016
- Inflation Outlook March 2015
- CPI & SBI Outlook November 2014
- CPI & SBI Outlook September 2014
- CPI & SBI Outlook August 2014