KEPERCAYAAN KONSUMEN

Sector Update - Automotive Sector
April 16, 2014 09:05 WIB

4W demand remains resilient as new product offerings are luring more potential buyers. Honda Mobilio has been a game changer for Honda, putting the car manufacturer into the top three, with sales continuing to escalate. In March, Mobilio sales reached the 10,000 mark, and while still below Avanza’s 16,315 units, Avanza’s domination is increasingly threatened. LCGC sales weakened in March, however, mainly dragged down by poor Honda Brio Satya sales. LCGC sales accounted for 12% of total 4W sales in March, down from 15% in February. In our view, possible restrictions on the use of subsidized fuel by LCGC may adversely impact future demand. Unlike the solid growth in the 4W market, 2W sales only grew 1% y-y in 1Q14 with sales reaching 1.98m units.

4W demand remains solid
4W sales in March reached 113,079 units, up 1% m-m and 18% y-y, and not far from the all-time high of 115k units reached in September 2013. Sales in March were mainly underpinned by solid sales in the LMPV segment, with Honda Mobilio continuing to enjoy strong demand and Toyota Avanza sales also improving m-m. In the LCGC segment, however, sales were relatively weak in March, down 32% m-m, mainly on poor sales of Honda Brio Satya, which slumped 79% m-m. Cumulatively in 1Q14, total 4W sales climbed 11% y-y to 328,356 units. In first place is still Toyota with market share of 34.6% (vs 35.2% in 1Q13), followed by Daihatsu’s 15.7% (14.3%), Suzuki’s 12.9% (12.2%) and Honda’s 11.0% (9.0%).

Honda Mobilio is advancing strongly
After quadruple m-m sales growth in February, Honda Mobilio continues to show buoyant sales with 10,592 units sold in March. Although Toyota Avanza sales also improved to 16,315 units, Honda Mobilio’s strong market reception could lead to erosion in Avanza’s market share in the LMPV segment. Daihatsu Xenia sales, meanwhile, dropped 29% m-m to 3,640 units, ranking it third within the LMPV segment followed by Suzuki Ertiga’s 3,475 units (+8.0% m-m). For Honda, the launching of Mobilio is definitely a game changer, catapulting Honda into the top three from fifth place in January. Honda Mobilio sales accounted for a whopping 73% of Honda sales in March. However, we believe the sustainability of Mobilio’s strong demand remains unclear, since it has largely been driven by large backlog orders.

The LCGC segment weakened in March
LCGC sales sank 32% m-m in March, mainly dragged down by poor sales of Honda Brio Satya which slumped 72% m-m to only 425 units from more than 2,000 units in Jan-Feb 2014. Similarly, Toyota Agya and Daihatsu Ayla sales were also down in March, although not as severely as Honda’s. Agya sales reached 6,648 units, down 11% m-m, while Ayla sales fell 6% m-m to 4,333 units. Nonetheless, the Agya and Ayla duo continued to increase their market share to 82% within the LCGC segment. Overall, LCGC accounted for 12% of total 4W sales in March, or down from 15% in February. In our view, possible restrictions on the use of subsidized fuel by LCGC may adversely impact future demand.

2W sales only grew 1% y-y in 1Q14
2W sales improved to 725,629 units in March, up 6.9% m-m and 9.1% y-y. Nonetheless, on a cumulative basis, overall 2W sales in 1Q14 only grew by 1% y-y to 1.98m units, mainly held back by the weak January figure, which showed a 10% y-y decline. Going forward, we believe that demand should continue to improve, although we don’t expect full year growth to exceed the 5% level this year. Honda has been able to further increase its market share to 64% in 1Q14 from 62% last year, while Yamaha sales dropped to 31% from 33% last year.
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TRADE OUTLOOK

Trade Outlook Maret 2014
March 26, 2014 11:03 WIB

Indonesia’s exports were weak in January 2014, falling 14.6 percent MoM, or down 5.8 percent YoY, to US$ 14.5 bn. Oil and gas exports slumped 26.7 percent MoM, with non oil and gas exports down 11.6 percent MoM. Exports volume was down 28.0 percent MoM, although average aggregate prices rose by 18.6 percent MoM.

Exports of two main exported products, mineral fuel (HS 27) and animal and vegetable fats (HS 15) contracted in January 2014. Exports of these two commodity types were down 17.1 percent and 13.8 percent MoM. In regard to mineral exports, the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals came into effect in January 2014. The stated aim of this policy is to promote domestic mineral processing in order to earn more value-added revenues from Indonesia’s copious natural resources.

By exports destination, Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to China fell by 22.8 percent MoM, followed by a 14.2 percent MoM decline to Japan. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports to the US edged up 0.1 percent MoM.

Indonesia’s imports dropped 3.5 percent MoM, also down 3.5 percent YoY, to US$ 14.9 bn. Oil and gas imports declined 15.8 percent MoM, while, in contrast, non oil and gas imports actually rose 1.1 percent MoM. Imports volume was 5.8 percent lower, but average aggregate prices rose 2.4 percent.

January’s main imports were mechanical machinery and equipment (HS 84) and electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85). MoM imports of mechanical machinery and equipment fell by 5.5 percent, while, by contrast, imports of electrical machinery and equipment climbed 24.6 percent.

Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports from Japan weakened 4.4 percent MoM. In contrast, however, Indonesia’s non oil and gas imports from China and Thailand jumped by 16.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.

Imports of capital goods, which were 17.6 percent of January’s total imports, posted an increase of 8.3 percent MoM, while, by contrast, imports of raw materials (75.7 percent of January’s total imports) and consumer goods (6.6 percent of January’s total imports) were down by 4.6 percent and 16.3 percent, respectively.

The greater decline in exports compared to imports resulted in a January trade deficit of US$ 430.6 mn. The deficit stemmed from a US$ 1.06 bn deficit in oil and gas trading, whereas non oil and gas trading remained in surplus (US$ 627.3 mn).

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CPI & SBI OUTLOOK

CPI & SBI Outlook Maret 2014
March 26, 2014 17:05 WIB

March 2014 Inflation Outlook: Easing Pressures

After prices rose 1.07 percent MoM in January, inflation eased to 0.26 percent in February. The YoY headline inflation fell to 7.75 percent from 8.22 percent.

On a MoM comparison, prices in most CPI components rose only modestly. The clothing component posted a 0.57 percent increase, followed by the prepared foods component (+0.43 percent MoM) and the foodstuffs component (+0.36 percent MoM). The other components posted lower increases: the medical care component (+0.28 percent MoM), the housing component (+0.17 percent MoM), the education component (+0.17 percent MoM), and the transportation component (+0.15 percent MoM).

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Forecast For Feb 2014

Exports US$ 14.80 bn
Imports US$ 14.00 bn
Trade Balance US$ 814.80 bn


Forecast for 2014

Exports US$ 196.40 bn
Imports US$ 192.30 bn
Trade Balance US$ 4.10 bn

DRI Forecast for March 2014

Inflation
MoM(%) 0.03
YoY(%) 7.20

SBI
End of period(% p.a) 7.50

Forecast for 2014

Inflation(%) 5.02
SBI(% p.a) 7.50